From a booming investment to a plummeting price, the Chinese wind power industry has experienced great ups and downs in the past few years. At present, with the rise of wind power and the price of complete machines, the long-term wind power industry in Wodong is likely to pick up.
In addition, the National Energy Administration recently reported to the State Council that “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Wind Power Industryâ€, and announced that it will focus on solving the problem of prioritized access to wind power and full-scale acquisitions. This has caused the wind power industry suffering from abandoning electricity to see the dawn.
However, the author believes that the fundamental issues that have constrained the development of the wind power industry have not been resolved. Prior to this, it was difficult to reverse the entire situation.
There is no doubt that, like the photovoltaic industry, the wind power industry has been hanging over the sword with excess capacity. In the past, clean energy was closely linked with the performance of local governments. As a result, capital rushed toward wind power, and when market supply exceeded demand, it buried potential risks for a vicious price war and broke out most notably in 2012, resulting in a huge fan industry as a whole. deficit.
In addition to the well-known overcapacity, the dangerous financing structure is also a weakness of the wind power industry.
As far as the wind power industry is concerned, a widely circulated figure is that the direct economic loss caused by wind power curtailment and wind curtailment in 2011 was about 5 billion yuan, and in 2012 this figure was as high as 10 billion yuan.
A person from a private equity investment once told the author that as the world’s largest wind energy country, China’s installed capacity of 30% does not produce economic benefits. For capital, abandoning 30% of electricity means that the project is loss-making and unprofitable. This is the reason why VC private equity does not favor the wind power industry.
In contrast, it is a huge investment in the wind power industry. The author obtained a set of data shows that in 2011 China's renewable energy applications total investment of 426.7 billion yuan, of which the largest share of wind power investment, reaching 47.5%.
The logic behind it is not difficult to understand. As far as the wind power industry is concerned, wind turbines and wind farms are capital-intensive enterprises, and the investment is frequently over ten million yuan. However, it is intriguing that if we look at the structure chart of China's wind power financing in 2011, we will find that funds from central government subsidies and VC private equity are almost zero, and the largest financing channel for wind power industry comes from the bank loan market, which occupies the entire industry. More than 80%.
This is highly dependent on the financing structure of bank loans, and also lays a hidden danger for the entire fan industry. The photovoltaic industry is a lesson from the past. When prices fall and inventory levels are high, banks first tightened their loans to photovoltaic companies, leading to a crisis in the capital chain of the entire industry. Under the pressure of repayment, once the photovoltaic giant Suntech Power Market had to Declared bankruptcy.
Finally, the wind power industry on the user side is also facing huge risks. The most typical is that the power grid companies are unwilling to accept wind power.
This is related to the geographical structure of our country. The western part has abundant wind energy resources, while in the east it is a large consumer of electricity. Long-distance power transmission is a huge challenge for both technology and capital. What is important is that due to the volatility and intermittent nature, the grid receiving wind power must be equipped with peaking power supply, but the revenue from wind power is rather meager. This thankless matter is destined for the wind power industry to become a large consumer of “discarded electricityâ€.
Therefore, if you want to use policies to help the wind power industry to recover, you need systematic structural design and supporting policy support. For example, in Europe, the slogan of "unified structure and unified technology" has been proposed in recent years and it has been investing in power grid projects. This model of trans-regional transmission of renewable energy is worthy of China's reference.
More importantly, China needs to introduce a supporting policy for power grid companies and users to assume renewable energy absorption obligations. To a certain extent, it will compel the acceptance of power grids, strong local government purchases, and user use. Only in this way can the most fundamental elimination of the wind power industry be resolved. Problem.
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