Today's point of view
Today's major steel products continue to fall slightly, and the market mentality is cautious. On the one hand, after the futures plunge yesterday, today's trend has changed slightly, and the performance of the late session has rebounded, which has played a supporting role in the decline of steel prices. On the other hand, the spot fundamentals are still weak, especially in terms of transactions. Although the volume of goods has changed from yesterday, most of the recent merchants' shipments have remained at a normal low level, which gives the goods some pressure. Merchants said that the short-term steel market moderate correction is conducive to shipping, but also conducive to the steel mill settlement policy, therefore, the willingness to price is not obvious, but the market outlook still does not have a substantial downward space, after all, the cost is still high. It is expected that the steel price trend will be consolidating in a narrow range.
Macro hotspot
1. [Agricultural products futures mostly closed down, Apple fell more than 3%] Cotton yarn, Zheng cotton fell more than 2%, soybean oil, Zhengyou, palm, rapeseed fell more than 1%, coking coal, Shanghai lead, asphalt, Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum Shanghai zinc, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, Shanghai silver, ferrosilicon, Shanghai gold, iron ore, plastics, sugar, glass, Shanghai nickel, etc. closed down. PVC, eggs, and hot coils rose more than 1%, and crude oil, manganese silicon, thread, rubber, Shanghai tin, coke, corn, and Zheng alcohol closed up.
2, [the index is rising all day, steel, liquor into a rebound pioneer]
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,915.73 points, up 0.27%, with a turnover of 153.3 billion.
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9501.34 points, up 0.92%, with a turnover of 194.9 billion.
The GEM closed at 1536.79 points, up 1.08%, with a turnover of 67.1 billion.
3. [Furity financing continued to tighten, Taihe and Zhonghong’s additional shares were suspended] “The supervision department’s attitude towards the financing of housing enterprises is as strict as ever, and the mouth is getting tighter and tighter, IPO, fixed increase and other channels. They are basically blocked, and it is getting harder and harder to issue bonds," said a senior manager of a trust company. According to the CSRC, the application process for the non-public offering of shares of the two real estate companies, Taihe Group and Zhonghong, was shown as “suspension reviewâ€. Previously, the bonds issued by many real estate companies such as Country Garden, R&F Properties, Hesheng Chuangzhan and Xincheng Holdings were suspended.
4. [CDR fund individual investors accounted for a relatively high maximum of one fundraising of less than 30 billion] On June 20, six strategic placement fund products such as China Merchants Fund and Harvest Fund were formally established, and the fund raising the highest fund was less than three. Tens of billions, there is still a long way to go from the product size of 50 billion. But they all exceeded the lower limit of the product scale of 5 billion yuan.
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The price of the national billet market is weakening. Shandong, Shanxi, and Jiangsu steel billets fell 40 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Tangshan and Changlipu billet parts were 3,650 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and Qian'an area was 3,650 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. Today, the steel market continues to adjust downwards, steel billets are straight and general, and finished products are slightly smaller. Low adjustment. Tangshan billet straight hair in general, warehousing spot 3730-3750 yuan / ton including tax sent to the transaction is difficult, the downstream holding a wait-and-see attitude; period snail shock, finished product prices are relatively strong, but the overall transaction is weak.
Imported mines: The activity in the morning market is still good. This morning, the price of the main port in North China is steadily weakening by RMB 5/ton. The price of high-grade Australian powder in Shandong main port is relatively stable, of which Rizhao Port PB powder is priced at RMB 455/ton, Tangshan area. PB powder price is 455 yuan / ton. In the morning, iron ore 1809 fell slightly, and steel mills were more cautious in purchasing. Most of them were mainly wait-and-see. Up to now, market transactions have been generally performed, and market transaction prices have been stable. Market transactions: Jingtang Port: PB powder 445, Jinbuba 405; Caofeidian: PB powder 450, PB block 588, super special 283, Jinbuba 407/410, Newman sieve back block 657, Newman powder 480, mixed 335; Tianjin Port: PB Block 590, Card Powder 660; Huanghua Port: Jinbuba 445; Qingdao Port: Super Special 280, Jinbuba 420; Rizhao Port: PB Powder 442/445, PB Block 585; Yanqiao Port: PB Powder 445. (Unit: RMB / ton)
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are slightly loose. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,209 yuan/ton, which was 16 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous trading day. The whole country was slightly loosened, and some cities in South China and Central China fell more obviously. The city has risen slightly. At present, today's decline has narrowed. After the holiday, the market has been relatively weak, and the trading atmosphere is sluggish. The performance of the snails in the early trading period is still inferior. The market turnover is not very optimistic, the price continues to fall, and the snails will strengthen in the afternoon. The market trading atmosphere began to pick up and the volume was heavy. The current market inventory resources are still low and the cost is high. Tomorrow is also the time for the mainstream steel mills in East China to issue price adjustment policies in the next ten days. The dominant atmosphere is mostly based on rising. If the other nights are stable, it is expected that domestic construction will be completed tomorrow. Steel prices will stop falling and stabilize.
Hot-rolled coils: Today's 24 major cities in the country's hot rolling prices are weakly consolidating, 3.0 hot-rolled coils national average price of 4362 yuan / ton, down 7 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, 4.75 hot rolled coil national average price 4305 Yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today, the futures market rose slightly, market confidence has been boosted, business quotations remained stable, some cities fell slightly, and market transactions were generally average. At present, the market inventory is relatively low, coupled with the support of cost, the merchants are not willing to continue to fall. In addition, the market price of steel billet remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,650 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price fell slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4445 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's market is mainly stable, and prices in some cities have fallen slightly. Driven by the slight increase in futures, the market mentality has improved, and the overall willingness of merchants to fall in price is not strong. At present, the inventory of merchants is generally not high, and the order price of steel mills remains high, which has certain support for the price. In addition, the market price of steel billet remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,650 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Cold rolled coil: Today's national cold rolling prices fell slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,740 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price cut 4 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4660 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4730 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4590 yuan / ton. Market: Today's market prices are large and multi-dimensional, and some markets are slightly reduced by 10-30 yuan/ton. From the point of view of understanding, the south of the Yangtze River entered the rainy season, and there was a lot of rain, which affected the merchants' shipments to a certain extent. On the other hand, local stocks are basically kept at a low level, and in June, the mainstream specifications have higher ordering costs, and high-cost and low-inventory stocks are dominated by traders. However, the futures are driven stronger, the market confidence is obviously unstable, and other varieties are following the decline. In the later period, the cold rolling prices are not allowed to weaken.
Steel: Today, the domestic steel market price is stable and weak, demand is weak, and the high level is loose. Specifically, the price of steel in Tangshan fell by 10-30 yuan/ton in early trading, which was mainly affected by the price cut of steel billets yesterday. The market mentality is very low. The intraday work tank continues to cut the price by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction is light. In the late afternoon, the snails oscillated and red, the price was eased, and gradually stopped falling. The work tank was adjusted back to 10-20 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the environmental protection requirements for the period from 12:00 on the 20th to 8:00 on the 21st were issued, further supporting the price, the business sentiment gradually eased, and the afternoon transaction improved. The price of East China's profiled materials was weakly consolidating. It was stimulated by the fall of yesterday's futures and billet. The early market price was loosened by RMB 10-30/ton. Although the afternoon transaction did not improve, but the futures volatility, so the business performance cautiously wait and see. The mainstream of South China profiles is stable, and many merchants indicate that the actual transaction can be a small discount of 10-20 yuan / ton. However, the current overall market resources are not large, and prices are unlikely to fall sharply. On the whole, the current market wait-and-see mood is strong, and both supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the national steel prices will be dominated by shock consolidation.
Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices continued to fall today. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipes 4 inches * 3.75mm was 4,409 yuan / ton, down 11 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inches * 3.75mm national average price 5173 yuan / ton, compared with the previous transaction The daily drop was 27 yuan / ton; the seamless pipe 108 * 4.5mm national average price of 5267 yuan / ton, down 1 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. In terms of pipe factory, Tianjin Youfa and Lida ex-factory prices were lowered by RMB 20/ton, Tianjin Juncheng was lowered by RMB 30/ton, and Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory was offering hot-rolling price of RMB 4,850/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the market is generally shipped in general, and traders are still mainly shipping, and there is no intention to replenish the warehouse in the short term. In terms of seamless pipes, the pipe factory still has no price adjustment trend, and traders are poorly shipped, and they are more bearish. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and run weaker tomorrow.
Futures: Today, domestic black goods rebounded across the board, the transaction volume shrank, and the funds flowed out slightly. Among them, the finished products performed strongly, led the rise, the double focus, the iron ore performance was weak, and the increase was limited. Specifically: yesterday, the external market sentimental decline, today's black system returns to the fundamental trend, resource shortages caused by limited production still exist, resource quotes are also relatively strong, short-term is still easy to rise and fall. Taking the snail as an example, the daily line receives the Xiaoyang line, and the intraday increase in the position is sharply increased. The end of the session is stable at 3800. The night plate is expected to continue to surge, and the above suggestions are recommended.
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