Market participants have recently predicted that the global polycarbonate (plastic raw material PC) market will continue to rise. For specific reasons, let us look at it together.
From a supply perspective, the number of imports from Asia will be significantly reduced. Mainly because of the tight supply in the Asian region, the local market prices continue to remain high. Under this situation, local sales will be more attractive, which will affect exports to the United States, so the export volume of Asia to the United States will be difficult to grow.
From the demand side, the automotive industry is the fastest growing market for plastics raw materials in the United States. The PC is mainly used for rear windows and side windows of automobiles, and can also be used as a front windshield material for automobiles instead of glass. However, most PC demand growth in the short term still comes from the construction and consumer electronics industries.
According to ICIS data, the spot price of PC in the United States continued to remain stable on May 30, and the delivery price was 1.60~2.00 USD/lb (about 3527-4409 USD/ton). Due to tight supply, the European PC contract price continued to rise in May, and the extrusion-grade PC contract price rose to 2.95~3.25/kg (FD, Northwest Europe), while the European extrusion-grade PC settlement price in April was 2.90~3.20 USD/ Kilograms (FD, North West Europe).
Due to concerns about tight PC supply, the price of general-purpose PCs in the Asian market has risen to $3,800~3,900/ton, which is more than 5% compared with two months ago. In addition, the market demand for raw material bisphenol A (BPA) is also very strong, and there is no indication that new capacity will be put into the market. At the same time, the trade friction between the United States and China imposes tariff measures on PCs, which will further push up the PC market price.
Compared with the price of 2,650 US dollars / ton in mid-May last year, the current PC price increase is about 50%, but the price difference with raw materials is at least 2,000 US dollars / ton. At the same time, due to factors such as hurricane weather and production facilities failure, PC supply in the US market is further tense. For the Chinese market, PC supply may not be tight, but it will not increase its supply capacity as expected. Last year, only the PC facility of Wanhua Chemical was put into operation in the Chinese market, and the production plans of other companies were delayed.
Market participants are also very active in inquiring about BPA, and the current transaction price is at a high of $1,600/ton. A few years ago, due to the oversupply of PCs, the situation of phenol and other raw material producers was very difficult. Therefore, many manufacturers are hesitant to expand BPA production capacity. Uncertainty in the supply of raw materials is believed to be responsible for the delayed production of new PC capacity in China.
Statistics show that the current global PC production capacity has risen to 5 million tons / year, the industry's device load rate has exceeded 80% last year. As the demand approached 4 million tons, the market began to use reserves to cope with the changes. In the Japanese market, as raw materials, excipients and logistics costs continue to increase, some applications have begun to use alternative materials.
Overall, the future global PC market for plastics raw materials will continue to rise with the increasing supply. From the perspective of supply, if the main production plants do not have production failure problems, it is expected that by the end of this year, the global production will increase by about 300,000 tons, mainly from China, exceeding the average annual growth rate of 3% to 4% or 100,000 to 150,000 tons. expected.
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