Hot rolled coils enter a new rising cycle

Hot rolled coils enter a new rising cycle From the perspective of macroeconomics, such a node with a balance between supply and demand is difficult. Supply and demand will always automatically seek changes to achieve a balance, but seldom reach an equilibrium point. Therefore, for the steel market, if you blindly investigate the overcapacity, there is not much to study the price of a specific product. meaningful. Therefore, studying changes in supply and demand, rather than studying the level of supply and demand, will be able to track and predict market prices simply and clearly. For the current price of hot-rolled coils, we believe that it has completed the first stage of adjusting the contradiction between supply and demand. The problem of resolving the contradiction between supply and demand has already risen by a step for hot-rolled coils. While embarking on such a pace of reform and global inflation, the new round of hot rolled coil prices has just begun.

1. The supply and demand side of hot-rolled coils showed a pattern of supply and demand reduction. After the domestic manufacturing PMI index reached a low of 49.2% in August, it gradually recovered. In October and November, they both rose above the line of honor and death. HSBC announced that the initial value of China's manufacturing PMI in December was 50.9, also the highest in 14 months. Downstream manufacturing showed signs of stabilizing and strengthening. Among them, the China National Automobile Association released the national automobile production and sales data for November, showing that the production and sales in November showed a different degree of growth compared with the same period last year. From January to November this year, the year-on-year growth of automobile production and sales maintained a slight increase. It is expected that in 2012, China's auto production and sales are expected to exceed 19 million vehicles. In November, the sales of home appliances to the countryside went to 9.707 million units, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year. In the previous November, the country’s cumulative sales of home appliances to the countryside had already broken 70 million units. However, the social volume of hot-rolled coils fell month after month in September. As of press time, the total amount of hot rolled social inventories in the country fell to 3,028.8 thousand tons, to the level of July of 2009, reaching a low of 41 months. The output of hot-rolled coils also fell to the lowest level in the past seven months to 12.638 million tons.

2. The new phase of the steel price re-emerged. The rising cost of support. The focus of support has moved up again. In this month's hot-rolled coil monthly research report, we have used data and graphics to demonstrate that steel mills ex-factory prices and steel resources on the spot market Most of the time, the sale price complies with the law of first move, and the spot market resource price must first go from the factory price of the steel mill for about one month to one and a half months. And such a time difference is consistent with Lange Steel's TongYi PMI's prior cycle difference with steel prices. 3. Undoubtedly, commodity prices will continue to benefit the spot market. The Fed launches QE3 and then pushes on December 13th. QE4, replacing the OT that is about to expire, the QE3+QE4 monthly Fed supplies US$85 billion to the market, and the total amount is basically the same as that of the previous OT+QE3. Although it did not propose how to solve the fiscal cliff problem, the Fed's banknote printing machine still enabled the price of international bulk commodities denominated in US dollars to enter the upstream channel. From the technical point of view, the current price trend of the main contract between the rebar ** and the long-term hot-rolled electronic discs is running above the moving averages, and the DIFF and DEA lines also become Jincha and continue to expand. Therefore, there is no doubt that the rising path formed by the capital market will support the sensitive hot-rolled spot market.

4. It is expected that the favorable policy for winter storage or the need to re-examine the continuous recovery of manufacturing data indicates that the momentum of economic stabilization and recovery has been basically established, and that the price of hot-rolled coils has continued to increase since the first weekend of September. A strong pattern, although there are repeated, but the overall trend is showing a narrow range consolidation. Since its operation, Shanghai hot rolled coil quotation has once again approached the 4,000 yuan integer mark, Guangzhou, Lecong prices have broken through 4,100 yuan, Tianjin hot rolled coil prices have broken 3,800 yuan, and so on. The price of hot-rolled coils was once again running to a high after the peak in September.

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