How long does inflation continue to heat up the steel market?

On November 11, Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the price index for this year is slightly higher than the target set at the beginning of the year. This is the first time that the head of the national ministry has said that the price increase will exceed 3% this year, and this statement differs from the previous report that the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly stressed that “the price control within this year is no problem within 3%”, which indicates the current inflation. The development trend has exceeded management's expectations. For the steel market, the inflation level of around 3% today has a positive impact on the liquidity of steel stocks, futures, and electronic trading with financial attributes. The steel financial market and the spot market are accompanied by water. With the increasing financial attributes of the steel spot market, steel prices have not been bought and re-fermented, so steel prices have shown a positive upward trend in early November.

According to relevant statistics, the growth rate of domestic CPI in recent months has been above the one-year fixed deposit rate, even higher than the three-year deposit interest rate. Moreover, due to the impact of the US implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy, the expectation that inflation will continue to rise in the future will remain unabated. Affected by this, the price of iron ore has rebounded again recently. As of November 11, 63.5% of the imported powder ore has been reported to 1,250 yuan / ton (including the wet tons of tax panels). In addition, iron ore negotiations in 2011 have begun. Under the influence of global liquidity surplus, the price of iron ore as a resource product will increase or not, then this will strongly support the high cost of steel prices in the fourth quarter.

At the same time, according to the China Steel Association report, the daily crude steel output in October was 1.586 million tons, a slight decrease from the 1.618 million tons in September, a decrease of about 2%. At present, the supply and demand relationship of steel is in a relatively balanced state. However, with the cold weather in the later period, the northern construction site will gradually enter the shutdown phase. The South China market will soon be affected by the Asian Games, and the demand will also fall back slightly. Although the domestic crude steel output in October was kept low by the continuous impact of energy conservation and emission reduction, but in November, with the inflation warming and the impact of emission reductions gradually subsided, the steel mill's resumption of production momentum will rebound significantly. In this way, steel market supply and demand will play again.

In summary, in the later steel market, it is difficult to have the demand to support the rising price of steel prices, but the trend of rising steel costs in the later period is also obvious. In this way, cost support may become the main driving force for the higher steel prices in the later period, and it will restrict the significant downward space of steel prices. Then, the current weakness of the supply and demand side of the steel spot market and the strength of the capital side are in the game stage. In general, steel prices have benefited from rising inflation in the short term, but as the demand side is still not strong enough, traders still need to be cautious about market operations for the rest of the fourth quarter.

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