Since the release of the 531 PV New Deal, the entire PV industry has been sorrowful. Some people in the industry think of cheap Internet access and overseas markets, and more practitioners believe that the combination of photovoltaic and energy storage is the inevitable way to overcome their own shortcomings and become the main energy source.
I want to die
“The 8.75 GW distributed power plant has been added in the first four months of this year, which is equivalent to the second half of the year.†A distributed PV practitioner laughed at himself.
A practitioner who does not want to be named is also very helpless. "A lot of goods are released and you want to die!"
The reporter also called Sunshine Power Co., Ltd. Huazhong Region Director Jiang Bo, Suzhou Gaochuang Special New Energy Development Co., Ltd. and other companies to ask about the impact of the PV New Deal on their enterprises, they all said that the company's development situation is not willing to confide.
In recent years, with the support of the subsidy policy, China's photovoltaic industry has experienced explosive growth. The newly installed capacity has been the first in the world for five consecutive years. The cumulative installed capacity has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years. During the “13th Five-Year Plan†period, photovoltaic power generation The construction speed is accelerating, and the annual average installed capacity growth rate is 75%. As of the end of April 2018, the installed capacity has exceeded 140 million kWh.
However, the long-term huge subsidy makes it difficult for the government to parry. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of 2017, the cumulative PV subsidy gap was 45.5 billion yuan, and it is expanding year by year. Subsequently, the 531 Photovoltaic New Deal was issued and the day before the release took effect.
"Overcapacity has led to a serious phenomenon of 'abandoning light' and huge subsidy gap. The country has also had to reorganize the photovoltaic industry, guide technological innovation and optimize the structure of the photovoltaic industry," Deng Beiwei, Guangzhou Huitian Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. told reporters.
The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration also stated that the introduction of the new PV policy is not only an important measure to implement the supply-side structural reforms, but also to promote the high-quality development of the economy. It is also a prominent contradiction and outstanding problem that alleviates the current subsidy gap and the blackout of electricity in the photovoltaic industry. Important initiatives.
When interviewing PV practitioners, the reporter learned that the vast majority of practitioners have said that it is still difficult to accept this sudden policy. Deng Beiwei believes that the PV market in the next two years is still unclear. In the next six months to one year, the entire industry is not good.
However, in the long run, some practitioners still believe that the country still supports the development of photovoltaics, but it will cause harm to some enterprises in the short term, even "fatal" damage, but the inevitable trend of the PV industry shuffling is inevitable. Deng Beiwei believes that the country is also for the healthy development of the industry.
Zhao Ming, the account manager of Suzhou Yingli Urban PV Application Technology Co., Ltd., also believes that the country still supports the development of photovoltaics, but still believes that the New Deal has been issued too suddenly, and the whole industry has almost no psychological preparation.
Jia Genliang, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, also said: "China's photovoltaic industry lacks core technology and does not seize the commanding heights of the industry, but is at the low end of the global value chain. Although China's photovoltaic industry lacks technological innovation, it is basically process innovation. The result of this innovation to increase productivity is that the producers of photovoltaic products in China are damaged and the importing countries benefit from the price."
Expecting parity online
The development of photovoltaics is getting more and more serious, and PV people are also hoping for a variety of undertaking channels or future affordable Internet access.
Based on the domestic situation, the new PV policy clearly pointed out: "We will continue to support photovoltaic poverty alleviation and timely release the second batch of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Project." From the perspective of the state's support and attitude towards PV poverty alleviation, in the second half of this year, Photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects or a new way out for the transformation of some PV people.
Some practitioners also hope that in the industrial and commercial rooftop PV market, respondents said that according to the potential reduction potential within the industry, for the distribution of high-yield industrial and commercial rooftops, the reduction of 5 cents is basically affordable.
It is understood that small and medium-sized industrial and commercial projects are mainly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai and the Pearl River Delta region. The roof power station of small and medium-sized industrial and commercial enterprises can eliminate the inventory of dealers and manufacturers as soon as possible. Many components have been quoted at less than 2 yuan per watt, and the whole system cost is 3.5 yuan per watt. In the case of discounted selling, the revenue can still be counted. Come over.
However, just as the photovoltaic industry is in a state of confusion, on July 3, the country's first unsubsidized distributed photovoltaic project was launched in Changzhou Jintan, the project will be built on the roof of more than 110,000 square meters in the new factory area of ​​Yongzhou Technology Changzhou. It is expected to install 10MW. This is the cooperation between Yongsheng Technology and Trina Solar. According to the party, it can recover the cost in about 5 years without relying on subsidies.
Wang Xianli, chairman of Yongsheng Technology, said at the launching ceremony that through the immediate difficulties, we saw the dawn of cheap Internet access, and the New Deal has strengthened our confidence in the photovoltaic industry.
However, some opponents pointed out that even if the National Energy Administration opened a 10 GW for industrial and commercial use and household distribution, the distribution alone could not digest such a large inventory in the domestic market, and the industrial and commercial rooftop photovoltaics could only be a drop in the bucket. Zhao Ming believes that the industrial and commercial rooftop PV is still pretty good from the data point of view. However, there are many problems in all aspects of industrial and commercial rooftop PV. If it is to be produced or operated, it will have some impact under the new PV policy. If this is the central development point, capacity will be limited.
Energy storage and overseas markets
More practitioners believe that the combination of photovoltaic and energy storage is the inevitable way to overcome their own defects and become the main energy source.
Zhao Wei, senior vice president of Sunshine Power, pointed out that it is more realistic to bring energy storage to talk about PV parity. He said that from the perspective of remote areas, photovoltaics and energy storage, this may be the acceptance of the grid, the transmission of the grid is more favorable, and the support of the grid is more favorable, thus contributing to the development of photovoltaics.
It is understood that energy storage related technologies and products are gradually developing into maturity and application stages, and the combination of energy storage and microgrid and photovoltaic power plants is also being explored and practiced. Recently, Easy Financial's semi-annual financial report pointed out that with the acceleration of the promotion of intelligent micro-grid, the company's energy storage and smart micro-grid business has become the company's new profit growth point; Zhongtian Energy Storage Technology also won the bid for the national grid total 1.33 100 million energy storage demonstration project.
Of course, some companies are focusing on traditional markets such as Europe and Japan, as well as emerging markets such as India, South America and Africa, which are active in demand.
In early June, the Indian government announced that it would raise the target of 175 GW solar installations to 225 GW by 2020, and plans to arrange 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. It is conservatively expected that solar energy will have 320 GW. The data shows that in 2017, India added 9.6GW of new PV installations, and the cumulative installed capacity has reached 19.6GW.
In addition, the European Solar Energy Industry Association predicts that the global new PV capacity will reach 102.6GW this year, and the global new PV capacity will reach 621.7GW in 2018-2022, an average of 124GW per year.
Under the New Deal, going to sea and compressing production capacity is the most realistic choice for most PV companies.
Liang Chen, from Suzhou Artes Company, said that 70% of the company's business is overseas and will not be affected by the New Deal. In fact, Artes saw the prosperity of domestic household distributed photovoltaics in 2017. At the beginning of the year, a PV team in China was set up. It is planned to open up the domestic market this year. When the New Deal comes out, it can only be arranged separately.
In the first half of the year, the overseas market shipments of GCL are expected to exceed 1GW, accounting for 50% of the total shipments. In June, component shipments exceeded 600MW. However, due to the tightening of PV policies, some orders were temporarily cancelled. The focus will be on overseas markets.
However, the international situation is complex and changeable, and trade barriers and other factors have also exerted tremendous pressure on the survival and development of China's overseas enterprises.
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