The domestic steel market's breakthrough after the Ching Ming Festival announced the end of the weak consolidation market for nearly a quarter. The domestic steel market price oscillations have broken through and the market has regained its bullish attitude. The calls for challenging the previous highs are also growing louder and louder. However, historical experience tells us that there is still a greater risk behind the seemingly bright future. Whether this rally was as short-lived as it was last year and it is not yet possible to reach a conclusion, but the steel mills have lowered the factory price so that the author will make a difference for the future. Steel prices are cautious and their risks of ups and downs remain.
Thread prices hovered around 4650-4850 yuan/ton for a long time. This breakthrough has become the main reason for the bullish steel prices of many investors. At the same time, the improvement of fundamentals has greatly boosted market confidence. The most intuitive is that the inventory data has been declining for several weeks. As of last week, the total rebar inventory in major cities nationwide has been reduced to 684.707 million tons, which is a decrease of more than 10% from the same period of last month. Shanghai rebar stocks have also been reduced for five consecutive weeks. The continued decline in inventories showed some signs of the market in the peak season. All of the above situations seem to have caused the “non-increaseable†trend in the price of thread. However, according to the author’s experience, the explosive increase in the price of thread in this context is only temporary. , should pay attention to avoid falling into a long trap.
Since this time of year is the best time for steel traders to speculate, the authenticity of inventory decline is debatable. Therefore, it is necessary to abandon the more intuitive inventory data to judge the trend of steel prices from the downstream demand. At present, whether the terminal demand can be released still faces greater uncertainty. The recent ups and downs of housing prices, the market situation is quite chaotic, which also led to signs of deceleration in real estate development investment, even if 10 million sets of affordable housing construction to make up for this gap, but the funding gap has become a more headache for local governments, The real estate demand will start or will be postponed to the second half of the year. The foundation for steel prices to rise sharply is not yet solid. The current “peak season†will be able to limit the upward range of steel prices.
Then, in the face of such a situation, how should different types of steel enterprises face? First of all, for steel-producing companies, it is reasonable to increase prices and increase production. However, it is necessary to guard against the steel market in the domestic market from sharply increasing output and indigestion. This has caused steel prices to fall again. Therefore, in order to control risks and lock in profits, it is necessary for manufacturers at this stage to choose to sell their hedging rallies.
Secondly, for some independent steel producers, because coke and iron ore account for about 70% of the cost of steel production, the risk of rising prices of coke and other raw materials should be prevented in the near future. The spot price of iron ore in the first quarter showed a weak decline. The subsequent quarterly pricing of iron ore will inevitably have a greater decline from the previous period. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the rising pressure of iron ore. Recently, it is worth paying attention to investors. Is another major production raw material - coke. As a major raw material for steelmaking, the impact of the listing of coke** on the steel market will be enormous. Recently, international oil prices have been steadily rising due to geopolitical influence. Domestic coal prices have also risen. The domestic market has not yet entered the peak season of electricity consumption but has shown signs of "coal power shortage", and the willingness to drive up coke prices is also very strong. At the same time, with the listing of coke **, there will be a wave of hot pursuits in the market. There is no lack of irrational speculation, and it may affect the price of the steel market. Therefore, some independent steel production enterprises should buy the right amount of coke. , Effectively lock production costs and avoid business risks.
Finally, for spot traders, under the background of tighter monetary conditions this year, the days of traders and downstream companies have become increasingly sad. The early high-ranking merchants suffered double losses of increased costs and reduced profits, and the losses were even greater. However, the steel market still has great uncertainty. At present, although the emergence of signs of consumption in the peak season, there are bound to be greater risks in rushing to carry out the bulk shipments. Therefore, traders and downstream companies can use ** appropriate operations to avoid risks. Once the market suddenly rises suddenly, then the market will have a certain circulation vacuum period, and the market purchase will face certain difficulties. Therefore, the purchase cost will be locked through the purchase price, and at the same time, once the steel price drops sharply,* * The high liquidity on the stock also avoids the situation where nobody cares about the spot.
Thread prices hovered around 4650-4850 yuan/ton for a long time. This breakthrough has become the main reason for the bullish steel prices of many investors. At the same time, the improvement of fundamentals has greatly boosted market confidence. The most intuitive is that the inventory data has been declining for several weeks. As of last week, the total rebar inventory in major cities nationwide has been reduced to 684.707 million tons, which is a decrease of more than 10% from the same period of last month. Shanghai rebar stocks have also been reduced for five consecutive weeks. The continued decline in inventories showed some signs of the market in the peak season. All of the above situations seem to have caused the “non-increaseable†trend in the price of thread. However, according to the author’s experience, the explosive increase in the price of thread in this context is only temporary. , should pay attention to avoid falling into a long trap.
Since this time of year is the best time for steel traders to speculate, the authenticity of inventory decline is debatable. Therefore, it is necessary to abandon the more intuitive inventory data to judge the trend of steel prices from the downstream demand. At present, whether the terminal demand can be released still faces greater uncertainty. The recent ups and downs of housing prices, the market situation is quite chaotic, which also led to signs of deceleration in real estate development investment, even if 10 million sets of affordable housing construction to make up for this gap, but the funding gap has become a more headache for local governments, The real estate demand will start or will be postponed to the second half of the year. The foundation for steel prices to rise sharply is not yet solid. The current “peak season†will be able to limit the upward range of steel prices.
Then, in the face of such a situation, how should different types of steel enterprises face? First of all, for steel-producing companies, it is reasonable to increase prices and increase production. However, it is necessary to guard against the steel market in the domestic market from sharply increasing output and indigestion. This has caused steel prices to fall again. Therefore, in order to control risks and lock in profits, it is necessary for manufacturers at this stage to choose to sell their hedging rallies.
Secondly, for some independent steel producers, because coke and iron ore account for about 70% of the cost of steel production, the risk of rising prices of coke and other raw materials should be prevented in the near future. The spot price of iron ore in the first quarter showed a weak decline. The subsequent quarterly pricing of iron ore will inevitably have a greater decline from the previous period. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the rising pressure of iron ore. Recently, it is worth paying attention to investors. Is another major production raw material - coke. As a major raw material for steelmaking, the impact of the listing of coke** on the steel market will be enormous. Recently, international oil prices have been steadily rising due to geopolitical influence. Domestic coal prices have also risen. The domestic market has not yet entered the peak season of electricity consumption but has shown signs of "coal power shortage", and the willingness to drive up coke prices is also very strong. At the same time, with the listing of coke **, there will be a wave of hot pursuits in the market. There is no lack of irrational speculation, and it may affect the price of the steel market. Therefore, some independent steel production enterprises should buy the right amount of coke. , Effectively lock production costs and avoid business risks.
Finally, for spot traders, under the background of tighter monetary conditions this year, the days of traders and downstream companies have become increasingly sad. The early high-ranking merchants suffered double losses of increased costs and reduced profits, and the losses were even greater. However, the steel market still has great uncertainty. At present, although the emergence of signs of consumption in the peak season, there are bound to be greater risks in rushing to carry out the bulk shipments. Therefore, traders and downstream companies can use ** appropriate operations to avoid risks. Once the market suddenly rises suddenly, then the market will have a certain circulation vacuum period, and the market purchase will face certain difficulties. Therefore, the purchase cost will be locked through the purchase price, and at the same time, once the steel price drops sharply,* * The high liquidity on the stock also avoids the situation where nobody cares about the spot.
Safety Vest,Reflective Material Co., Ltd. , http://www.chsafetyvest.com