Coal stocks will start gradually in seasonal market

Under the inflationary environment, the stock market "coal" fly "color" dance is the old drama. However, the stocks of coal stocks this year seem to be half a beat. Yesterday, the coal sector rose slightly by 0.3%, and Shanxi Coking, China Coal Energy, and Jingyuan Coal Industry saw different increases.

Analysts believe that the coal market will start its seasonal market with various factors such as coal prices.

From July 18th to the present, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 10.4%, while the coal sector fell 6.5%. When the overall market fell, the coal sector showed a better defensive performance.

Cai Hongyu, a coal industry analyst with CICC, pointed out in the report that the main reason for the declining coal stocks is that coal prices remain high and coal stocks have good profitability under the support of rigid demand and capacity bottlenecks.

Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the coal industry’s operating income increased by 37.27% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 19.29% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the gross profit rate of listed companies in the coal industry was 31.87%, which was 3.74 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the net profit of Yanzhou Coal, Shanhua Energy and Shanmei International increased by more than 40%.

Zhang Hongbing, an analyst at Shanxi Securities and Coal Industry, said that the listed companies with the fastest growth in net profit all have a large amount of scarce coal resources such as coking coal, injected coal, or anthracite.

As coal prices and demand pick up, the good of coal stocks will gradually increase.

It is understood that after the summer coal consumption peak in the past two months, power plant inventory has dropped to normal levels. Recently, power plants and traders have increased their purchases of coal, the domestic port coal price has stabilized, and coastal coal freight rates have rebounded slightly for two weeks in a row.

September and October are usually the time for coal preparation during the winter season of the power plant. From September 20th onwards, the Daqin Line will conduct a 15-day, daily 4-hour overhaul, which is expected to affect the thermal coal supply of more than 3 million tons. Cai Hongyu expects that domestic thermal coal prices will gradually rebound in the coming period of time. As the steel industry enters the peak season, coking coal prices are expected to continue rising slightly.

Cai Hongyu said that due to the deterioration of the European debt crisis, the domestic economy continues to slow down, while the tightening policy continues, and the short-term coal sector still faces certain pressure. However, the good certainty of earnings and the upcoming seasonal market will make the coal sector hope to continue to outperform the broader market. If the European debt issue in September made some progress, and the United States introduced economic stimulus policies, the coal sector is expected to have a considerable market.