Domestic oil price cut is expected to be stranded as international crude oil prices bottomed out

Around the 10th of each month is the window period for domestic oil price adjustments. Affected by the recent rise in international crude oil prices, the prices of crude oil in the three places referred to by China's refined oil price adjustments may be difficult to exceed the threshold of 4% price adjustment. This means that the expectation of lower prices of domestic refined oil in early September will be expected. Frustrated.

International crude oil prices bottomed out According to China's current pricing mechanism for refined oil products, the average price of crude oil in the international markets of Brent, Dubai, and Xinta has been moving in a positive or negative direction over 22 consecutive working days, which is usually 4%. When the change in the so-called “three-land crude oil change rate” exceeds 4%, the domestic refined oil price may be adjusted accordingly.

Affected by the debt crisis in Europe and the United States, international oil prices have experienced many plunges in August. As of September 1, the weighted average change rate of crude oil prices in the three places was -3.24%, causing the market's expectations of price cuts to rise again. However, recently, the international oil price rebounded strongly. At the end of August, the Brent crude oil price continued to rise, making the previous domestic oil price cut expected to linger.

Statistics show that the average price of crude oil ** on the New York Mercantile Exchange last week was 87.856 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 3.400 US dollars from the average price of the previous week, an increase of 4.03%. The average weekly price of Brent crude oil increased by 3.868 US dollars to reach 113.280 US dollars / barrel. Last week, the average spot price of crude oil also rose across the board from the previous week. The industry expects the international oil price to oscillate between US$85 and US$90 per barrel in the short term.

The price adjustment window is difficult to open for this. Yao Daming, minister of the oil division of the Guangdong Oil & Gas Merchants Association, believes that according to the current pricing mechanism, the price adjustment window for refined oil products will be difficult to open in the near future. Unless the current international oil price plummets, Brent's oil price drops to $108/barrel, and it will remain for some time, the price adjustment window is expected to emerge.

Yao Daming believes that the domestic market for refined oil products has shown signs of a rebound. With the advent of the diesel season, the market is picking up faster than gasoline. In September, with the possibility of a drop in the price of oil, the main unit adopted a strategy to reduce the transaction price, and pushed the transaction price by 20 to 30 yuan per ton per day. Market transactions have recovered.

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