In the second quarter of 2011, many market institutions were studying the macroeconomic situation in the future. They generally believed that the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics before January and February showed that the CPI exceeded expectations, mainly because food prices were higher than expected. In January and February, the cumulative new price increase factor has increased. Based on the higher tail end in March, it is expected that the CPI will continue to rise under the influence of the base effect and cumulative price increase factors. Commodities prices will also hit record highs in recent days. China's inflationary pressure this year remains high.
According to the agency, the second quarter is an observation period for many economic events. Domestically, it needs to investigate the supporting conditions for affordable housing and water conservancy construction; externally, it needs to observe the specific impact of crude oil on imported inflation, and is therefore cautious about the second-quarter market. . In terms of the overall operation of the A-share market in the second quarter, the agency believes that in the face of future inflation expectations, it is now possible to lay out four major sectors such as banks, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and coal. On the one hand, these plates have strong anti-inflation; on the other hand, these plates represent a certain degree of advantage in the valuation of the weight indicator plate, and the probability of a deeper adjustment is smaller, so it is advisable to use phase-adjusted wave-based opportunities.
The banking sector benefited from raising interest rates to enhance the valuation level. From the three bank annual reports announced recently, the performance was good. The Bank of China, Minsheng Bank, and Hua Xia Bank's 2010 year-on-year growth were 28.52%, 46.09% and 59.38%, respectively. Among them, if Minsheng Bank deducted Haitong’s equity income, the net profit increased by approximately 109% year-on-year. It is expected that the performance of other bank stocks that will be announced in succession will be worth looking forward to.
The Ping An Securities Research Report stated that in the context of low valuations, bank stocks are expected to initiate valuation restoration in the second quarter under the policy stabilization period or performance stimulus. For hedging **, to ease inflationary pressures and stabilize market expectations Galaxy Securities also believes that bank stocks underestimate the demand for repairs in the second quarter. The agency’s research report stated that in 2010, the valuation of banking stocks was under pressure from intensive risk control policies, gradually tightening monetary policies, and industry collective gambling. At present, the horizontal valuation of bank stocks is relatively low compared to other sectors in the A-share market, and the current PE and PB levels are also at the lowest level since 1998. Galaxy Securities stated that in the context of low valuations, bank stocks are expected to initiate valuation restoration in the period of stable policy or performance stimulus.
Non-ferrous metal internal and external factors contributed to the offensive in the second quarter At the time of the survey, most agencies believed that with rising inflation expectations, commodity prices rose steadily, which would generally have a positive effect on the profitability of upstream resource-based companies.
Xiangcai Securities and other institutions indicated that the “new metal†that will benefit from the energy-saving and environmental protection, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment manufacturing and other industrial sectors will usher in thematic investment opportunities. Including rare earth permanent magnets, reclaimed metals, tungsten, lithium and so on.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute believes that in 2011, the overall profit of non-ferrous metals increased significantly, mainly to grasp the three main investment lines. First, the investment opportunities for base metals come from the rise in metal prices that drive earnings upsides and the valuation recovery caused by contractionary expectations' phase weakness. Second, the policy side and the performance of the small metal target exceeded expectations. The share price of small metals, including rare earth tungsten crucibles, substantially outperformed the market in 2010, and whether policy dividends and earnings growth in 2011 have surpassed expectations have become a necessary condition for the continued acquisition of excess returns by the sector. In addition, manufacturing and consumption upgrades and the new economy have pushed high-end aluminum deep processing into the golden period of development. In the medium to long-term, it is optimistic about electrode foils and rail transit aluminum profiles. Focus on Xinjiang Zhonghe, Dongyangguang Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum.
Coal plate coal prices have a medium-term upward trend Many agencies believe that international coal prices are expected to rise in the second and third quarters of Japan's post-disaster reconstruction. They believe that from the perspective of austerity measures, the relatively loose after April, coal stocks valuation is expected to increase, and downstream demand confirmation is a good time to invest in coal stocks.
Ping An Securities pointed out that in the secondary market, the resource properties of coal will be one of the key areas that investors will focus on for a long time. Inflation will provide investors with psychological support, and the coal sector is expected to obtain a “resource price premiumâ€. The National Development and Reform Commission recently requested to maintain a stable supply of coal prices and does not rule out the possibility of policy intervention.
Northeast Securities believes that in the middle of 2011, the preliminary obstacles to coal ** have been basically eliminated. During the entire period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, it will be a period of prosperity for coal derivatives.
According to the research report of several agencies, the overall judgment is that the rising trend of coal stocks has just been established. For now, the rising trend of coal stocks has just been established, because the price factors and demand factors that detonate the recent coal stocks are still there. First of all, the rising trend of international oil prices is still optimistic. Second, there is also optimistic expectation for the downstream demand of the coal segment subdivision type. In addition, the rising trend of coal prices will continue, and it is expected that the coal stock price will continue to be active.
During the operation, investors are advised to actively track three kinds of coal stocks: First, companies with obvious advantages in the industrial chain; Second, companies with significant expansion of production capacity; Third, coal stocks with relatively scarce coal varieties.
Agricultural sector prices and policies reflect the value of anti-inflation According to statistics, in February the stage of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose 11.06%, the amplitude of 12.95%, the cumulative volume of 56.95 million hands, the interval turnover rate was 43.12%, total turnover of 83.5 billion plate . Calculated on the closing price of March 30, the dynamic P/E ratio for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery blocks is 87.62 times, and the agency forecasts a P/E ratio of 48.79 times in 2010.
The agency generally believes that the acceleration of agricultural product prices has become an inevitable trend driven by the continuous increase in the demand for agricultural products and the accelerated increase in labor costs. The two major segments in the agricultural sector deserve attention.
The agency believes that under the current anti-inflation background, the State Council has introduced measures to stabilize food prices, and short-term basic agricultural product prices may not rise rapidly. Under the expectation of rising food prices, the price of seeds has also risen. At the same time, the price level of Chinese grain is far below the international level, so there will be more room for further increase in the price of seeds. After droughts and other natural disasters, remediation measures such as reseeding the seeds will have a certain demand for seeds, which will also increase sales. Secondly, the agency expects the central government's annual investment in water resources will be around 1 trillion yuan in the next 10 years. The agency speculated that this part of the investment will drive the performance of water conservancy companies, especially in the drought situation, the sales of agricultural water-saving irrigation equipment companies are expected to increase.
CITIC Securities believes that the increase in the price of agricultural products will be beneficial to the increase in the valuation of the entire agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries industries.
According to the agency, the second quarter is an observation period for many economic events. Domestically, it needs to investigate the supporting conditions for affordable housing and water conservancy construction; externally, it needs to observe the specific impact of crude oil on imported inflation, and is therefore cautious about the second-quarter market. . In terms of the overall operation of the A-share market in the second quarter, the agency believes that in the face of future inflation expectations, it is now possible to lay out four major sectors such as banks, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and coal. On the one hand, these plates have strong anti-inflation; on the other hand, these plates represent a certain degree of advantage in the valuation of the weight indicator plate, and the probability of a deeper adjustment is smaller, so it is advisable to use phase-adjusted wave-based opportunities.
The banking sector benefited from raising interest rates to enhance the valuation level. From the three bank annual reports announced recently, the performance was good. The Bank of China, Minsheng Bank, and Hua Xia Bank's 2010 year-on-year growth were 28.52%, 46.09% and 59.38%, respectively. Among them, if Minsheng Bank deducted Haitong’s equity income, the net profit increased by approximately 109% year-on-year. It is expected that the performance of other bank stocks that will be announced in succession will be worth looking forward to.
The Ping An Securities Research Report stated that in the context of low valuations, bank stocks are expected to initiate valuation restoration in the second quarter under the policy stabilization period or performance stimulus. For hedging **, to ease inflationary pressures and stabilize market expectations Galaxy Securities also believes that bank stocks underestimate the demand for repairs in the second quarter. The agency’s research report stated that in 2010, the valuation of banking stocks was under pressure from intensive risk control policies, gradually tightening monetary policies, and industry collective gambling. At present, the horizontal valuation of bank stocks is relatively low compared to other sectors in the A-share market, and the current PE and PB levels are also at the lowest level since 1998. Galaxy Securities stated that in the context of low valuations, bank stocks are expected to initiate valuation restoration in the period of stable policy or performance stimulus.
Non-ferrous metal internal and external factors contributed to the offensive in the second quarter At the time of the survey, most agencies believed that with rising inflation expectations, commodity prices rose steadily, which would generally have a positive effect on the profitability of upstream resource-based companies.
Xiangcai Securities and other institutions indicated that the “new metal†that will benefit from the energy-saving and environmental protection, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment manufacturing and other industrial sectors will usher in thematic investment opportunities. Including rare earth permanent magnets, reclaimed metals, tungsten, lithium and so on.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute believes that in 2011, the overall profit of non-ferrous metals increased significantly, mainly to grasp the three main investment lines. First, the investment opportunities for base metals come from the rise in metal prices that drive earnings upsides and the valuation recovery caused by contractionary expectations' phase weakness. Second, the policy side and the performance of the small metal target exceeded expectations. The share price of small metals, including rare earth tungsten crucibles, substantially outperformed the market in 2010, and whether policy dividends and earnings growth in 2011 have surpassed expectations have become a necessary condition for the continued acquisition of excess returns by the sector. In addition, manufacturing and consumption upgrades and the new economy have pushed high-end aluminum deep processing into the golden period of development. In the medium to long-term, it is optimistic about electrode foils and rail transit aluminum profiles. Focus on Xinjiang Zhonghe, Dongyangguang Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum.
Coal plate coal prices have a medium-term upward trend Many agencies believe that international coal prices are expected to rise in the second and third quarters of Japan's post-disaster reconstruction. They believe that from the perspective of austerity measures, the relatively loose after April, coal stocks valuation is expected to increase, and downstream demand confirmation is a good time to invest in coal stocks.
Ping An Securities pointed out that in the secondary market, the resource properties of coal will be one of the key areas that investors will focus on for a long time. Inflation will provide investors with psychological support, and the coal sector is expected to obtain a “resource price premiumâ€. The National Development and Reform Commission recently requested to maintain a stable supply of coal prices and does not rule out the possibility of policy intervention.
Northeast Securities believes that in the middle of 2011, the preliminary obstacles to coal ** have been basically eliminated. During the entire period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, it will be a period of prosperity for coal derivatives.
According to the research report of several agencies, the overall judgment is that the rising trend of coal stocks has just been established. For now, the rising trend of coal stocks has just been established, because the price factors and demand factors that detonate the recent coal stocks are still there. First of all, the rising trend of international oil prices is still optimistic. Second, there is also optimistic expectation for the downstream demand of the coal segment subdivision type. In addition, the rising trend of coal prices will continue, and it is expected that the coal stock price will continue to be active.
During the operation, investors are advised to actively track three kinds of coal stocks: First, companies with obvious advantages in the industrial chain; Second, companies with significant expansion of production capacity; Third, coal stocks with relatively scarce coal varieties.
Agricultural sector prices and policies reflect the value of anti-inflation According to statistics, in February the stage of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector rose 11.06%, the amplitude of 12.95%, the cumulative volume of 56.95 million hands, the interval turnover rate was 43.12%, total turnover of 83.5 billion plate . Calculated on the closing price of March 30, the dynamic P/E ratio for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery blocks is 87.62 times, and the agency forecasts a P/E ratio of 48.79 times in 2010.
The agency generally believes that the acceleration of agricultural product prices has become an inevitable trend driven by the continuous increase in the demand for agricultural products and the accelerated increase in labor costs. The two major segments in the agricultural sector deserve attention.
The agency believes that under the current anti-inflation background, the State Council has introduced measures to stabilize food prices, and short-term basic agricultural product prices may not rise rapidly. Under the expectation of rising food prices, the price of seeds has also risen. At the same time, the price level of Chinese grain is far below the international level, so there will be more room for further increase in the price of seeds. After droughts and other natural disasters, remediation measures such as reseeding the seeds will have a certain demand for seeds, which will also increase sales. Secondly, the agency expects the central government's annual investment in water resources will be around 1 trillion yuan in the next 10 years. The agency speculated that this part of the investment will drive the performance of water conservancy companies, especially in the drought situation, the sales of agricultural water-saving irrigation equipment companies are expected to increase.
CITIC Securities believes that the increase in the price of agricultural products will be beneficial to the increase in the valuation of the entire agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries industries.