The "Non-ferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" points out the path for the development of China's non-ferrous metals industry from 2009 to 2011. In view of the specific goals for each year, the author believes that it can be understood as a "three-step" strategy.
The first step: In 2009, the industry's production was restored to normal levels, eliminating 300,000 tons of backward copper smelting capacity, 600,000 tons of lead smelting capacity and 400,000 tons of zinc smelting capacity. The author believes that this first step is the most critical step, considering that the impact of the financial crisis will continue in 2009, so the revitalization of the non-ferrous industry in 2009 is to deal with the crisis and resume production.
The second step: By the end of 2010, we eliminated 800,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the small pre-baked tanks, and achieved positive results in energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, corporate restructuring has progressed, forming 3-5 comprehensive corporate groups with strong capabilities. The economics community generally believes that the world economy will bottom out in the second half of 2009, so after the crisis, we will focus on energy conservation, emission reduction and corporate mergers and acquisitions on the basis of the restoration of production in the first step of 2009. In the past, companies are encouraged to become bigger and stronger under the premise of sustainable development.
The third step: By 2011, the proportion of domestic top ten copper, aluminum, lead and zinc companies in the country’s total output will increase to 90%, 70%, 60% and 60%, respectively; By 2011, the copper, aluminum, and nickel raw materials guarantee capacity will increase to 40%, 56%, and 38%, respectively; the proportion of recycled copper and recycled aluminum in copper and aluminum production will increase to 35% and 25%, respectively, compared to 2008. Increased by 6 and 4 percentage points respectively. The author believes that after the first two steps, the non-ferrous industry has been initially adjusted and rejuvenated. The goal of the 2011 plan is to increase industrial concentration, improve resource support capabilities, and strengthen the development and utilization of renewable resources. This is obviously a colored one. The metal industry puts forward higher requirements and pays more attention to the medium and long-term development of the industry.
The “three steps†of industrial rejuvenation focuses not only on the structural adjustment and upgrading of the industry in the long-term, but also fully based on the status quo. This reflects the principle of “planning†step by step, step by step.
Baoda pressure or stimulate the expansion of production capacity
In "Planning", the author saw the "happy" side, but also produced a "worry" concern. According to the requirements of the “Planningâ€, in the next three years, in principle, the construction of new electrolytic aluminum projects will be no longer approved; the access standards and filing system will be strictly enforced, and new production capacity of copper, lead, zinc, titanium, and magnesium will be strictly controlled. On the other hand, it also stipulates that non-ferrous metal enterprises should be discriminated against, and there is pressure to maintain, that is, to suppress the enterprises with backward production capacity and gradually eliminate them from the market; while for backbone enterprises to give policy tilt, and strive to form 3-5 with Stronger comprehensive corporate group. The author believes that the government's policy of maintaining large-scale pressure is likely to encourage a new round of capacity expansion. As the national industrial policy strictly restricts the launch of smaller projects, it will encourage companies to launch projects in succession. The technical transformation of backward production capacity within the phase-out range and expansion of production capacity are likely to become the main force of this round of capacity expansion.
Moreover, the tilt of policy has also led to a slight increase in capacity expansion. For example, in addition to electrolytic aluminum, the examination and approval of non-ferrous metal projects is currently completed at the provincial government, which has caused local governments to have resources to dare to invest in projects; especially in the current economic environment is still uncertain, the pressure of employment surges and local GDP Under the background of growth, the investment in local non-ferrous metal resources has not diminished. For example, in the first quarter of 2009, investment in new construction projects for the lead and zinc mining industry was 2.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.42%; completed investment in fixed assets was 1.167 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% over the same period of last year.
Supporting policies must be refined
Although the non-ferrous metal industry adjustment and revitalization plan has been introduced, but the supporting policy is still to be improved. The non-ferrous metals industry is an important basic raw material industry. It has a wide range of products, a wide range of applications, and a high degree of industrial linkage. It plays an important role in economic construction, national defense construction, social development, and stable employment. However, many problems have arisen in the industry as a whole, but are they completely covered by the Plan? Therefore, we strongly urge all ministries and commissions to step up the formulation and publication of supporting policies and rules for the adjustment and revitalization of the non-ferrous metals industry.
If you look carefully, you will find that there are still many things that need to be studied and refined. For example, the "Plan" proposes that while continuing to control the export of "two high and one capital" products, it will further adjust the export tax rebate rate structure of non-ferrous metal products, and study the appropriate adjustment of the export tax rebate rate for high-tech and high-value-added products; Non-ferrous metals countries have plans to collect and store scales, to step up the establishment and improvement of the national collection and storage mechanism, to allocate special funds in the newly-added central investment, to support non-ferrous metal industry technology research and development and technological transformation in the form of loan interest subsidy, and to step up promotion of direct-purchase electricity pilots, etc. . What is the connotation and standard of "two high and one capital"? This will require further refinement of the catalogue of bans and restrictions on processing trade. According to the Ministry of Commerce, some of the products originally designated as “two highs and one capital†may be taken from the prohibited and restricted categories. At the same time, relevant persons of the Ministry of Finance also stated that the export tax rebate rate for non-ferrous metal products will be further studied and improved on the basis of adjustments made in the previous period. In addition, the "planning" also proposes to support key enterprises in various ways to improve resource support capabilities; simplifies overseas project approval procedures, improves policies and measures such as credit, foreign exchange, insurance, fiscal and taxation, and personnel's entry and exit; strengthens the management of overseas assets, effectively Prevent and resolve risks; Strictly stipulate the conditions for entry of overseas resource development companies, and provide support to key enterprises that meet the conditions for entry, capital injection and foreign exchange use in overseas resource development projects. However, these relevant rules have not yet been introduced. They also need relevant ministries and commissions to carry out policy regulations on how to encourage enterprises to develop resources overseas.
The announcement of the adjustment and revitalization plan of the non-ferrous metal industry reflects the country's full attention to this industry. At the same time, we should see that after years of rapid growth, the non-ferrous metals industry will inevitably require a major adjustment. The "Planning" depicts a programmatic blueprint for industrial adjustment and rejuvenation, indicating the non-ferrous industry. Spring is not far away. However, after the "planning" is released, supporting policies must be followed in a timely manner and they must be fully detailed so that the medicine can be eliminated.
Copper Policy Leads to Domestic Consumption
The state attaches great importance to the consumption of basic materials such as non-ferrous metals and steels. In several revitalization plans, the adjustment and revitalization planning of the automobile industry, adjustment and revitalization planning of the equipment manufacturing industry, adjustment and revitalization planning of the electronic information industry, and home appliances to the countryside policy , Can provide favorable support for non-ferrous metal consumption. In our view, although the current refined copper consumption is “advanced by the countryâ€, compared with the intense domestic tightening atmosphere in 2008, the environment of credit easing and economic warming will continue to maintain a stable trend in refined copper consumption.
Of course, the pressure brought by the export environment remains obvious, and the export of electromechanical products fell by 22.2% in April. The situation is not optimistic. In 2009, the household appliance industry faced challenges, and output was expected to be flat or declining. Its demand for bulk raw materials would also be stable, but the slight decline in air-conditioner output and motor output would affect copper demand.
In the “Regulations on the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Nonferrous Metals Industryâ€, the export industry emphasizes the implementation of a moderately flexible export tax policy, supports the export of deep-processed products with high technological content and added value, transforms export methods, and drives indirect exports of non-ferrous metals to the copper smelting industry. The large-scale copper smelting enterprises with access conditions have started trials of processing trade. At present, the formulation of policies involves various links in the copper industry chain products, and the specific implementation is highly effective. From October 2008 to April 2009, the tax rebate policy for copper products was adjusted intensively. In February 2009, the state approved seven large-scale copper smelting enterprises. Restricted recovery of processing trade exports of electrolytic copper.
In effect, in the absence of recovery of the global real economy, the export stimulus policies introduced by various countries tend to be neutral. In terms of copper, last year domestic copper exports accounted for only 6.35% of the average output, and the impact on exports was relatively limited. While refined copper exports increased by 114% month-on-month under the influence of policies, they are still insignificant compared with the huge import volume.
Therefore, as refined copper consumption in 2008 is not optimistic, the author believes that terminal demand will not shrink this year due to the concentration of national policies. It may even be slightly better than in 2008. For the forecast of consumption, we maintain the beginning of this year. Judging, the growth rate is 4%-5%.
The speculation on the reserves of China’s copper reserves has triggered a rapid rise in copper prices both inside and outside the Chinese New Year. From the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in the period from January to March (production + net import + domestic dominant inventory), it is estimated that the domestic copper supply in the first quarter will be about 340-400 thousand tons more. Among them, the author believes that some countries have the power to collect and store, but there are also some of them originating from the stocks of spot dealers. According to the proposals made by the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association for collecting and storing 400,000 tons of refined copper in 2-3 years, considering the serious reluctant sentiment of foreign traders at that time, the possibility that the 300,000 tons of purchased reserves that were rumored to be completed will be folded. bigger.
“Planning†puts forward the establishment of a national collection and storage mechanism. The author believes that the establishment of a long-term and comprehensive purchasing and storage system, from a strategic point of view, diversification of national reserves, can play a medium-term and long-term boosting effect on prices. This is different from the short-term purpose of helping non-ferrous companies to overcome difficulties during the beginning of the year. If the long-term price trend is upward, then the country’s purchase and storage will not be too sensitive to price, and it is not necessary to wait until the previous low point. Make a third round of storage. In other words, the previous passive support of the state's purchase and storage of price decline will become more active under the judgment of economic cycle, long-term price trend, and strategic demand.
In short, from the demand point of view, the national rejuvenation of the non-ferrous metals industry is based on the domestic market. Through the investment in infrastructure and electricity, our copper demand should be stable in 2-3 years. In the medium to long term, China’s own copper demand has potential.
Unlike the aluminum-zinc industry, domestic refined copper is the absolute import direction. Although mining and smelting enterprises suffered heavy losses and sharp declines in profits at the end of last year, some fell below the cost line, but the excess situation was mainly caused by the rapid decline in demand. After we make optimistic judgments on refined copper consumption, the refined copper supply chain should be able to achieve stable development, and refined copper production can achieve steady growth. In the first quarter, the performance of a number of non-ferrous listed companies has seen a significant reduction in losses. Most companies began to make profits in April and it is expected that they will basically complete their turnaround in the second quarter.
"Planning" proposed the goal of increasing the copper raw material guarantee capacity to 38% in 2011, and encouraged the development of domestic and foreign resources, and provided generous financing concessions. According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ April non-ferrous metal production data, the self-sufficiency rate of copper concentrate in the first four months was only 22.7%, but the cumulative output of refined copper increased by 6.7% year-on-year. The growth rate of copper concentrate was better than that of smelting, and the cumulative increase was 9.5% year-on-year. .
The decline in the growth rate of smelting production is related to the slump in the price of sulfuric acid and the reduction in the use of recycled copper resources. The plan points out that in 2009 the country will eliminate 300,000 tons of outdated copper smelting capacity and strictly implement the access standards, filing system, and accountability system. The elimination of backward production capacity has limited impact on refined copper supply. The most important key to the domestic copper smelting industry is also the protection of raw materials. The plan emphasizes the strengthening of cooperation among industry associations (commercial associations). We hope that the TC/RC negotiations on processing fees will play a more active role in the middle of the year.
For recycled copper, the plan clearly stated that the proportion of recycled copper should be increased to 35% in 2011. Domestically, recycled copper is widely used in the smelting process and copper processing industry, but the industry itself has a low degree of concentration and the dismantling process is behind. From this year's perspective, the reclaimed copper industry faces two major problems: First, imports of scrap copper raw materials due to the financial crisis in developed economies, supply constraints; Second, the domestic implementation of the value-added tax of the recycling industry, the practice of retreat, aggravate the industry Operating costs. However, this also strengthens the access threshold for the recycling industry. We believe that for renewable raw materials, in China's refined copper consumption environment, with the recovery of prices and consumption, the trend of scrap copper imports is slowly rising. The preliminary import data of scrap copper in April has reverted to 400,000 tons, basically the same as last October. As for the VAT system, it is hoped that the relevant departments will further reduce the tax rebate process and reduce the pressure on liquidity in the recycling industry.
For the copper industry, there is a relatively serious overcapacity in the industrial chain. Although the concentrated construction period is nearing completion, the overall profit of the industry is meager. The plan points out that the field of copper materials should be strengthened with technological transformation to meet the high value-added special copper materials required for high-precision deep-processing projects in the key areas of the national economy.
The “Non-ferrous Metal Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan†is a blueprint to guide the development of China's non-ferrous metals industry in the next three years. In an environment where external demand is unstable and internal growth is maintained, it will be able to secure time and opportunities for China's non-ferrous metals industry to achieve smooth operation, optimize structure, and complete industrial upgrading.
Aluminium adjusts for long-term good for Yangtze River Futures Huang Zhiquan
From the specific content of the “Regulations for Nonferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Rejuvenationâ€, the adjustment of the aluminum industry with high energy consumption is relatively large, and it will be beneficial to the overall development of the aluminum industry in the long term.
First, encouraging the export of high value-added products and strengthening technological innovation will increase the overall competitiveness of the industry. China's aluminum industry is mainly concentrated in the five major regions, among which the Pearl River Delta region is the frontier of reform and development, starting earlier, mainly in the production of aluminum profiles; Yangtze River Delta region mainly produces industrial profiles, processing and export-oriented; Henan aluminum foil with the Lord. The country has made high-performance aluminum alloy and its composite materials, large-section, hollow large aluminum alloy plates, aluminum wire, plates, strips, thin plates and other series of products processing and welding technology, deep-processing forming technology and coloring, anti-corrosion technology and related support. Equipment is listed as a priority for the development of high-tech industries. The recently introduced “Aluminum Industry Access Requirements†stipulates that the product structure of newly-built aluminum processing projects must be based on plates, belts, foils or extruded tubes, and industrial profiles. The production capacity of multi-variety integrated aluminum processing projects must reach 100,000 tons/above. The production capacity of single-species aluminum processing projects must reach 50,000 tons/year of sheet strip, 30,000 tons/year of foil, and 50,000 tons of extrusion material/ More than a year.
The plan proposes to continue to control the export of "two high and one capital" products, and at the same time further adjust the export tax rebate rate structure of non-ferrous metal products, and study the appropriate adjustment of the export tax rebate rate for high-tech and high-value-added products. Continue to encourage the export of strips and foils, and give preferential policies for export tax rebates. The adjustment of aluminum export tax rebate policy has a significant effect on exports, but this policy change cannot be expected, increasing the uncertainty of the export market, and it does not rule out that export trade frictions will increase year by year and constitute export Constraints, but the government through policies to guide enterprise technology innovation and then expand the export of high value-added products is very beneficial to improve the overall competitiveness of the industry, after all, China can only increase the scientific and technological content of products in order to avoid being caught in the "anti-dumping trap" abroad, through the high Added value products to transfer a portion of domestic excess capacity.
Second, elimination of outdated production capacity and improvement of corporate restructuring mechanisms will help companies become bigger and stronger. The outdated production capacity in this round totaled 2.1 million tons, accounting for 8.73% of the total output of the four metals in 2008. It should be said that the policy itself has little effect on the adjustment of the supply and demand structure. However, in the main tasks, the "planning" clearly states that "in the next three years, no longer approve the construction of new or reconstructed or expanded electrolytic aluminum projects" and it will be able to control the incremental production capacity. Heavy punches, especially for the electrolytic aluminum industry, the situation of serious excess capacity, in the policy control measures reflect a clear tendency, the aluminum enterprises to accelerate out of the bottom is important.
In addition, from the available public data, as of November 2007, there were 445 aluminum smelting enterprises in China, including 29 large-scale enterprises, accounting for 6.52% of the total number of the country, 72 medium-sized enterprises, accounting for 16.18%, and small enterprises. There were 344 companies, accounting for 77.3% of the total number of enterprises in the country. However, the sales revenue of the top 10 aluminum smelting enterprises only accounted for 48.12% of the total industry revenue. The assets accounted for 46.78% of the total industry scale, and the total profit accounted for 47.87% of the total industry profits. The top-ranking aluminum smelting companies in China have not become the biggest players in the industry.
The prolonged metal bull market and market's expectation of sustained high-speed economic growth in the newly industrialized countries of the world has led to a revaluation of resource values, which has stimulated the desire of the giants in the aluminum industry to control resource prices, making the industry's integration often precede the expansion of production. When the industry's supply concentration reaches a certain level, giant companies in the industry can regulate the market within a small range. In terms of the aluminum industry, the output ratio of the five largest alumina producers and aluminum producers in the world in 2006 was 61% and 41%, respectively. Such supply concentration has given multinational companies the ability to control prices through controlling production. Only domestic elimination of outdated production capacity and restructuring of enterprises, and the establishment of several giant aluminum companies, can be used as their industry leader to stabilize the entire aluminum industry chain, so that China can gain greater pricing power internationally.
Third, the development of a recycling economy and the development of domestic and foreign resources will increase resource support capabilities. In the global aluminum supply source, recycled aluminum accounts for 28%, while the output of recycled aluminum in the United States exceeds that of primary aluminum for the first time in 2001. It can be said that recycled aluminum has become an important source of aluminum supply in developed countries, while China’s output of recycled aluminum accounts for only 17%. Far below the world level, the reason for this is that aluminum accumulated in China has not yet entered a large number of scrap-off periods at this stage, and the amount of scrap aluminum recovered is limited. Recycling aluminum and other renewable metal utilization industries have been listed as the key areas for national recycling economy development. The plan has also clearly proposed to increase the proportion of aluminum production for recycled aluminum to 25%, which will be close to the international level. However, due to the economic slowdown, economic stimulus measures and industrial revitalization plan are difficult to quickly increase the domestic aluminum consumption level in the short term, aluminum consumption will continue to weaken, and the output of recycled aluminum will be difficult to increase in 2009. At the same time, the huge raw aluminum capacity waiting to be released The threat of recycled aluminum will continue to exist.
The output of recycled aluminum will gradually increase as China's industrialization progresses. However, the scarcity of domestic bauxite resources must be compensated by imports. Due to the substantial expansion of alumina production capacity, domestically produced bauxite has been insufficient to meet downstream demand, and the decline in taste has led to greater demand for ore. Now and in the future, China needs to import large amounts of bauxite each year. Bauxite is already a resource and is no longer a simple industrial raw material. We expect that the domestic alumina production capacity in 2010 will reach 35 million tons, of which domestically produced alumina production capacity will reach 26 million tons. Taking into account the decline in bauxite grade, the calculation will be based on 3 tons of bauxite ore and 1 ton of alumina, and the annual consumption of aluminum will be calculated. 708 million tons of earth ore, the existing domestic bauxite reserves may be warned within 10 years.
At present, about 60% of the bauxite used in non-aluminum-based alumina production comes from imports. The sources of bauxite in China's aluminum industry are: 35% self-produced, 55% to 60% domestic purchases, and the remaining imports (for Shandong branch companies). Chinalco previously stated that by 2010, the company's self-produced bauxite ratio is expected to reach 70%. On February 12 this year, China Aluminum announced that the US$19.5 billion injection of Rio Tinto should be seen as the culmination of China’s development of overseas mineral resources. At present, the low price of non-ferrous metals and the economic recession of various countries in the world can allow China with large amounts of cash overseas. The acquisition of mineral resources is a big issue. After all, the stability of upstream resources can ensure the sustainable development of China's aluminum industry.
Fourth, the establishment of a state purchasing and storage mechanism and direct power supply pilot will ease the operational dilemma of the company. The rapid fall in aluminum prices in late April caused the production cost of most electrolytic aluminum plants to be higher than that of aluminum prices again. However, if all the preferential measures and the pressure from various sources have become apparent, aluminum companies have opened the door to restart production capacity. The tumult of aluminum prices in 2008 caused nearly 1/3 of China's production capacity to be non-operational; after entering 2009, with the continued strengthening of domestic aluminum prices and the adoption of policy support measures by some provinces and cities for qualified aluminum enterprises, electrolytic aluminum The factory can recover rapidly. According to Antaike's statistics, as of the end of April, China’s reopened capacity reached 1.7 million tons, and only electrolytic aluminum capacity in Henan Province has restarted about 700,000 tons; it is expected that there will be nearly 1.5 million tons in the next two quarters. The gradual release of production capacity. On the other hand, the customs data released on May 12 showed that the import volume of alumina in April was 650,000 tons, which was the highest monthly import since 2008, second only to the monthly imports of 660,000 tons in January 2008. the amount. The import volume of alumina in April increased by 140% from the previous month, and the cumulative imports from January to April was 1.67 million tons, a decrease of 2.91% year-on-year. At the same time, the price of alumina has also seen a certain recovery since bottoming out in February this year, and Chinalco has raised the price of alumina twice on January 19 and April 1 this year, and the price was 2,000 yuan from the beginning of the year. / Ton rose to the current 2,300 yuan / ton.
Also in the rebound of aluminum prices, domestic aluminum prices were stronger than foreign ones. In April alone, the amount of unforged aluminum and aluminum imports reached 439,902 tons, which was nearly double the month-on-month increase in March; cumulative imports from January to April. It reached 703,545 tons, a year-on-year increase of 118%. In April, the export volume of unforged aluminum was only 5,868 tons, which was a further decline from the export volume in March. From January to April, 42857 tons of unwrought aluminum were exported, down 80.65% year-on-year. Obviously, this is the result of the resumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum plant in March. Due to the resumption of aluminum production and the large increase in imports, the Chinese market re-excess production capacity, while the excess capacity to digest only through the increase in export efforts and domestic storage to complete, in the plan is mentioned through the improvement of export tax policy and pay close attention to the establishment of the national purchasing and storage mechanism to fulfill. However, the European and American economies have not shown signs of improvement. It is still unclear whether China's domestic excess production capacity can be exported in large quantities, and the state and local governments' reserves will help to ease the supply pressure brought about by the resumption of production, but it cannot completely eliminate the surplus.
Due to the obstruction of exports and the weakening of demand from the real estate sector, it is difficult for aluminum consumption to rebound strongly, and the pattern of slow recovery is still maintained. Therefore, the aluminum industry can only realize cost management from itself, and this plan proposes to promote direct power supply pilots, and The scope of direct power supply will be gradually expanded. At present, 15 aluminum companies have been included in the scope of the pilot, but there has been no substantive progress. The issuance of the "Plan" will help promote this work. Electrolytic aluminum companies have higher power consumption. According to the minimum standard of 13,000 kWh, the cost per ton of aluminum will be reduced by 130 yuan for every 1 cent of electricity price reduction, and the total cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2008 will be reduced by 1.713 billion yuan. At present, the cost of electricity for most aluminum enterprises in China is more than 0.4 yuan, while the direct purchase agreement price may be close to 0.3 yuan, so the direct purchase of electricity has an important role in reducing the production costs of aluminum enterprises. Before this, Henan Province has already started pilot direct power supply measures, which will play a role in reducing the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in the province. If large-scale direct power supply schemes are implemented, it will undoubtedly play a positive role in reducing the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum.
How the zinc effect is critical to the implementation
For the zinc industry, the Nonferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan clearly encourages the concentration of production capacity for large-scale zinc smelting enterprises. However, within a short period of three years, can it change the dispersion of production capacity, serious pollution, and insufficient supply of zinc resources in the domestic zinc industry? The key to the difficulties lies in how to reasonably combine the actual conditions of the industry and implement the policy measures.
"Planning" pointed out that in 2009 it strived to keep the non-ferrous metal industry operating stably. Affected by the characteristics of resource distribution, China's zinc smelting and mineral production capacity are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of Yunnan, Hunan and Inner Mongolia, and are mostly local pillar industries. The financial crisis has had a huge impact on China’s metal zinc industry, and there has been a large-scale production suspension in the industry. Due to production restriction, local industrial production has been affected by a negative impact. Using government policies to support the stable operation of the industry will not only help stabilize the economy, but also help promote economic development in the central and western regions.
The elimination of outdated smelting capacity is the key content of the plan. Judging from the current status of the domestic zinc industry, overcapacity of smelting production and low industrial concentration are one of the prominent contradictions in the development of the industry. Although China has been ranked first in global zinc output for 16 consecutive years, only 10 smelting enterprises have exceeded 100,000 tons, accounting for 47% of the country's total output, while output is less than 10,000 tons. There are more than 100 zinc smelting enterprises. From statistical data, China's zinc smelting capacity in 2007 has exceeded 4 million tons, and the expansion of smelting capacity in 2008 and 2009 were 550,000 tons and 350,000 tons, respectively, and it will expand by 1.05 million tons from 2010 to 2011. The rapid expansion of China's zinc smelting capacity in recent years is mainly due to the rapid release of global zinc production capacity after 2005, resulting in excess supply of zinc concentrate, and the cost of zinc smelting continued to soar, reaching a peak of US$360. Due to the high profit of smelting, it stimulated the construction of new smelting projects at home and abroad. In addition, the high-speed growth of the domestic downstream galvanized sheet industry in recent years has driven downstream demand and has also driven smelting companies to accelerate the pace of production expansion. However, after entering 2008, due to the continuous decline in zinc prices, some high-cost mining companies began to shut down production capacity or reduce production capacity, leading to the global supply of raw materials tends to be tight, spot smelting costs of imported zinc ore fell to about 100 US dollars, while the downstream domestic galvanized The release of plate production capacity also slowed down significantly, resulting in low demand for metal zinc ingots. As the inventory of smelting companies rises, the company’s cash flow tends to be tight, and the problem of overcapacity in domestic production is beginning to appear. Although the excess capacity of zinc smelting is not very serious relative to the electrolytic aluminum industry, it is even more noteworthy that due to the large number of small-scale zinc smelting enterprises in China, the widespread use of wet smelting processes has not only caused serious environmental pollution problems, And it is very easy to stimulate social conflicts. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the continued sluggishness of the domestic galvanized industry, the pressure on the supply of imported refined zinc continues to increase. According to Antaike’s prediction, the domestic zinc surplus will be around 500,000 tons in 2009. If we can achieve the goal of eliminating 400,000 tons of zinc smelting capacity, it will help to solve the problem of domestic oversupply, but the key issue is how to eliminate backward production capacity. At the same time to achieve the goal of controlling total production capacity. The author believes that, first of all, we should strictly implement the access conditions for lead and zinc industries, increase capital requirements for new smelting projects, and restrict new production capacity. Second, we should cautiously use the practice of eliminating backward production capacity through technological transformation. Judging from the practical results of domestic steel industry's control of production capacity in 2005, some smelting enterprises have expanded their new production capacity while eliminating backward production capacity, resulting in a doubling of total smelting capacity. Due to the extremely easy recovery of small enterprises' production capacity, in the rapidly deteriorating market conditions, large-scale smelting enterprises have higher production costs due to the large investment in new projects, and the competitive advantages of scale and advanced technologies are not obvious. In the adjustment of the industry, competitiveness It is not as good as a small business with backward production capacity. Therefore, for the zinc smelting industry, elimination of outdated production capacity, in addition to the natural elimination of the application of technological transformation methods, should pay more attention to environmental protection requirements for smelting enterprises, by increasing the environmental costs of smelting enterprises, highlighting the cost disadvantage of lagging smelting processes, forcing some of the production capacity forever Sexual withdrawal from the market may incentivize enterprises to actively adopt new processes and achieve the purpose of eliminating backward production capacity while controlling new production capacity. In addition to eliminating some of the production capacity through industrial upgrading, controlling production capacity through corporate restructuring methods is also a path to be considered. However, from the experience of other industries, government-driven corporate restructuring is often not very satisfactory, and state-owned enterprises do not account for metal zinc smelting enterprises. Obvious dominant position, smelting enterprises more diversified nature of property rights, corporate restructuring should be based on the principle of market-oriented, supplemented by the guidance of national fiscal and taxation policies.
Developing domestic and foreign resources and enhancing resource support capabilities are also among the highlights of the revitalization plan. From the perspective of business practices, currently large-scale zinc smelting companies in China have begun to try to integrate roads. The main method is to change from a single smelting enterprise to a non-ferrous enterprise through acquisition of a mine. Judging from the current status of domestic mineral resources, although there is a certain increase in the amount of resources, due to insufficient prior exploration investment, the current domestic resource reserves are seriously deficient, and most provinces have reserve protection for more than 10 years. Moreover, China's lead-zinc ore is characterized by more small and medium-sized ore deposits, which results in the concentration of mineral enterprises still lower than that of smelting enterprises. Nearly 50% of the mineral enterprises have annual zinc concentrate production below 10,000 tons, and most of them are medium and low-grade taste minerals. Therefore, under the pressure of expansion of smelting capacity, the pressure of resource bottleneck began to show that in recent years, China's dependence on foreign materials has been around 30%. In the first quarter of 2009, due to tight domestic supply, 50% of raw materials depended on imports, and the resource disadvantage became more obvious. From the perspective of resource development, the distribution of domestic zinc ore is extremely uneven. Southwest China, such as Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, have rich resource reserves and are the provinces that have exported more mineral resources. Therefore, when considering the development of domestic resources, we should encourage the transfer of zinc smelting projects to the southwest and northwest regions. This not only conforms to the laws of industrial transfer, but also improves the efficiency of the use of mineral resources and is also in line with the overall strategy for the development of the western region. However, overall, due to the weak support capacity of domestic zinc resources, it is an inevitable choice to increase foreign resources development. China's zinc concentrate imports are mainly concentrated in Australia and other countries. Affected by the financial crisis, some foreign mining companies have encountered difficulties in financing. For enterprises with sufficient domestic cash flow, they face better opportunities for mergers and acquisitions of mining resources. The revitalization plan should promptly introduce detailed encouragement and support measures in encouraging enterprises to develop overseas resources. The author believes that in the development of external resources, it should be differentiated from domestic resource development, and it should not be overemphasized to support key enterprises. Should try to ensure the diversification of investment bodies, private enterprises, state-owned enterprises, joint-stock companies should have the opportunity to participate in external development of resources, and decentralize the political risk of external resources investment. Secondly, diversification of investment methods should be encouraged, including holding projects or companies, equity participation projects, etc. Encourage enterprises to develop mineral resources in cooperation and diversify investment risks. In addition to the development of mineral resources, the emphasis on the recycling of renewable resources is also a feasible way to improve resource security. At present, the scale of recycled zinc in China is relatively small. The annual output of recycled zinc is only about 50,000 tons, which is far less than the scale of reclaimed lead of nearly 700,000 tons. There is great potential for the development and utilization of renewable resources.
In addition to the above two points, the expansion of the country's purchasing and storage scale is also worthy of attention. According to relevant media reports, the state plans to collect and store 1 million tons of aluminum, 400,000 tons of copper, and 400,000 tons of lead and zinc. In addition, local governments in Guangxi and Yunnan have also proposed similar plans for storage and storage. Yunnan plans to receive 1 million yuan for storage. Tons, of which 300,000 tons of zinc, Guangxi's purchase and storage plan also has 460,000 tons. As of the end of April, the National Reserve Bureau has collected 300,000 tons of copper, 290,000 tons of aluminum, and 159,000 zinc. Although the purchase and storage cannot reverse the fact that the global demand for excess supply of zinc metal has fallen, it has played a significant role in supporting prices in the short term, which has greatly eased the tight cash flow situation of production companies. In the long run, since China is a country that is extremely deficient in the per capita resources of non-ferrous metals, it is of great strategic importance to establish a national nonferrous metal resources reserve system under the condition of financial strength guarantee. However, there are obvious operational problems in China's current collection and storage practices. First, it lacks transparency, and it easily causes abnormal market fluctuations. In the future, we can refer to the model of state-owned public service agencies in Korea, announce plans for advance purchases and storage in advance, and prices are determined by the bidding method. Avoid unexpected shocks on prices. Secondly, in 2009, the large-scale storage and storage targets in China were mainly state-owned large-scale enterprises, and the prices were higher than the market transaction prices. Although the cash flow problems of some large-scale enterprises were solved, there was a clear lack of market fairness and the spot prices were supported. It also slowed down the pace of industrial adjustment. Some backward production capacity enterprises also regained their vitality. In addition, they also caused a large influx of imported metal zinc resources, which impacted the domestic market and in effect caused the outflow of financial subsidies.
The first step: In 2009, the industry's production was restored to normal levels, eliminating 300,000 tons of backward copper smelting capacity, 600,000 tons of lead smelting capacity and 400,000 tons of zinc smelting capacity. The author believes that this first step is the most critical step, considering that the impact of the financial crisis will continue in 2009, so the revitalization of the non-ferrous industry in 2009 is to deal with the crisis and resume production.
The second step: By the end of 2010, we eliminated 800,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the small pre-baked tanks, and achieved positive results in energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, corporate restructuring has progressed, forming 3-5 comprehensive corporate groups with strong capabilities. The economics community generally believes that the world economy will bottom out in the second half of 2009, so after the crisis, we will focus on energy conservation, emission reduction and corporate mergers and acquisitions on the basis of the restoration of production in the first step of 2009. In the past, companies are encouraged to become bigger and stronger under the premise of sustainable development.
The third step: By 2011, the proportion of domestic top ten copper, aluminum, lead and zinc companies in the country’s total output will increase to 90%, 70%, 60% and 60%, respectively; By 2011, the copper, aluminum, and nickel raw materials guarantee capacity will increase to 40%, 56%, and 38%, respectively; the proportion of recycled copper and recycled aluminum in copper and aluminum production will increase to 35% and 25%, respectively, compared to 2008. Increased by 6 and 4 percentage points respectively. The author believes that after the first two steps, the non-ferrous industry has been initially adjusted and rejuvenated. The goal of the 2011 plan is to increase industrial concentration, improve resource support capabilities, and strengthen the development and utilization of renewable resources. This is obviously a colored one. The metal industry puts forward higher requirements and pays more attention to the medium and long-term development of the industry.
The “three steps†of industrial rejuvenation focuses not only on the structural adjustment and upgrading of the industry in the long-term, but also fully based on the status quo. This reflects the principle of “planning†step by step, step by step.
Baoda pressure or stimulate the expansion of production capacity
In "Planning", the author saw the "happy" side, but also produced a "worry" concern. According to the requirements of the “Planningâ€, in the next three years, in principle, the construction of new electrolytic aluminum projects will be no longer approved; the access standards and filing system will be strictly enforced, and new production capacity of copper, lead, zinc, titanium, and magnesium will be strictly controlled. On the other hand, it also stipulates that non-ferrous metal enterprises should be discriminated against, and there is pressure to maintain, that is, to suppress the enterprises with backward production capacity and gradually eliminate them from the market; while for backbone enterprises to give policy tilt, and strive to form 3-5 with Stronger comprehensive corporate group. The author believes that the government's policy of maintaining large-scale pressure is likely to encourage a new round of capacity expansion. As the national industrial policy strictly restricts the launch of smaller projects, it will encourage companies to launch projects in succession. The technical transformation of backward production capacity within the phase-out range and expansion of production capacity are likely to become the main force of this round of capacity expansion.
Moreover, the tilt of policy has also led to a slight increase in capacity expansion. For example, in addition to electrolytic aluminum, the examination and approval of non-ferrous metal projects is currently completed at the provincial government, which has caused local governments to have resources to dare to invest in projects; especially in the current economic environment is still uncertain, the pressure of employment surges and local GDP Under the background of growth, the investment in local non-ferrous metal resources has not diminished. For example, in the first quarter of 2009, investment in new construction projects for the lead and zinc mining industry was 2.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.42%; completed investment in fixed assets was 1.167 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% over the same period of last year.
Supporting policies must be refined
Although the non-ferrous metal industry adjustment and revitalization plan has been introduced, but the supporting policy is still to be improved. The non-ferrous metals industry is an important basic raw material industry. It has a wide range of products, a wide range of applications, and a high degree of industrial linkage. It plays an important role in economic construction, national defense construction, social development, and stable employment. However, many problems have arisen in the industry as a whole, but are they completely covered by the Plan? Therefore, we strongly urge all ministries and commissions to step up the formulation and publication of supporting policies and rules for the adjustment and revitalization of the non-ferrous metals industry.
If you look carefully, you will find that there are still many things that need to be studied and refined. For example, the "Plan" proposes that while continuing to control the export of "two high and one capital" products, it will further adjust the export tax rebate rate structure of non-ferrous metal products, and study the appropriate adjustment of the export tax rebate rate for high-tech and high-value-added products; Non-ferrous metals countries have plans to collect and store scales, to step up the establishment and improvement of the national collection and storage mechanism, to allocate special funds in the newly-added central investment, to support non-ferrous metal industry technology research and development and technological transformation in the form of loan interest subsidy, and to step up promotion of direct-purchase electricity pilots, etc. . What is the connotation and standard of "two high and one capital"? This will require further refinement of the catalogue of bans and restrictions on processing trade. According to the Ministry of Commerce, some of the products originally designated as “two highs and one capital†may be taken from the prohibited and restricted categories. At the same time, relevant persons of the Ministry of Finance also stated that the export tax rebate rate for non-ferrous metal products will be further studied and improved on the basis of adjustments made in the previous period. In addition, the "planning" also proposes to support key enterprises in various ways to improve resource support capabilities; simplifies overseas project approval procedures, improves policies and measures such as credit, foreign exchange, insurance, fiscal and taxation, and personnel's entry and exit; strengthens the management of overseas assets, effectively Prevent and resolve risks; Strictly stipulate the conditions for entry of overseas resource development companies, and provide support to key enterprises that meet the conditions for entry, capital injection and foreign exchange use in overseas resource development projects. However, these relevant rules have not yet been introduced. They also need relevant ministries and commissions to carry out policy regulations on how to encourage enterprises to develop resources overseas.
The announcement of the adjustment and revitalization plan of the non-ferrous metal industry reflects the country's full attention to this industry. At the same time, we should see that after years of rapid growth, the non-ferrous metals industry will inevitably require a major adjustment. The "Planning" depicts a programmatic blueprint for industrial adjustment and rejuvenation, indicating the non-ferrous industry. Spring is not far away. However, after the "planning" is released, supporting policies must be followed in a timely manner and they must be fully detailed so that the medicine can be eliminated.
Copper Policy Leads to Domestic Consumption
The state attaches great importance to the consumption of basic materials such as non-ferrous metals and steels. In several revitalization plans, the adjustment and revitalization planning of the automobile industry, adjustment and revitalization planning of the equipment manufacturing industry, adjustment and revitalization planning of the electronic information industry, and home appliances to the countryside policy , Can provide favorable support for non-ferrous metal consumption. In our view, although the current refined copper consumption is “advanced by the countryâ€, compared with the intense domestic tightening atmosphere in 2008, the environment of credit easing and economic warming will continue to maintain a stable trend in refined copper consumption.
Of course, the pressure brought by the export environment remains obvious, and the export of electromechanical products fell by 22.2% in April. The situation is not optimistic. In 2009, the household appliance industry faced challenges, and output was expected to be flat or declining. Its demand for bulk raw materials would also be stable, but the slight decline in air-conditioner output and motor output would affect copper demand.
In the “Regulations on the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Nonferrous Metals Industryâ€, the export industry emphasizes the implementation of a moderately flexible export tax policy, supports the export of deep-processed products with high technological content and added value, transforms export methods, and drives indirect exports of non-ferrous metals to the copper smelting industry. The large-scale copper smelting enterprises with access conditions have started trials of processing trade. At present, the formulation of policies involves various links in the copper industry chain products, and the specific implementation is highly effective. From October 2008 to April 2009, the tax rebate policy for copper products was adjusted intensively. In February 2009, the state approved seven large-scale copper smelting enterprises. Restricted recovery of processing trade exports of electrolytic copper.
In effect, in the absence of recovery of the global real economy, the export stimulus policies introduced by various countries tend to be neutral. In terms of copper, last year domestic copper exports accounted for only 6.35% of the average output, and the impact on exports was relatively limited. While refined copper exports increased by 114% month-on-month under the influence of policies, they are still insignificant compared with the huge import volume.
Therefore, as refined copper consumption in 2008 is not optimistic, the author believes that terminal demand will not shrink this year due to the concentration of national policies. It may even be slightly better than in 2008. For the forecast of consumption, we maintain the beginning of this year. Judging, the growth rate is 4%-5%.
The speculation on the reserves of China’s copper reserves has triggered a rapid rise in copper prices both inside and outside the Chinese New Year. From the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in the period from January to March (production + net import + domestic dominant inventory), it is estimated that the domestic copper supply in the first quarter will be about 340-400 thousand tons more. Among them, the author believes that some countries have the power to collect and store, but there are also some of them originating from the stocks of spot dealers. According to the proposals made by the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association for collecting and storing 400,000 tons of refined copper in 2-3 years, considering the serious reluctant sentiment of foreign traders at that time, the possibility that the 300,000 tons of purchased reserves that were rumored to be completed will be folded. bigger.
“Planning†puts forward the establishment of a national collection and storage mechanism. The author believes that the establishment of a long-term and comprehensive purchasing and storage system, from a strategic point of view, diversification of national reserves, can play a medium-term and long-term boosting effect on prices. This is different from the short-term purpose of helping non-ferrous companies to overcome difficulties during the beginning of the year. If the long-term price trend is upward, then the country’s purchase and storage will not be too sensitive to price, and it is not necessary to wait until the previous low point. Make a third round of storage. In other words, the previous passive support of the state's purchase and storage of price decline will become more active under the judgment of economic cycle, long-term price trend, and strategic demand.
In short, from the demand point of view, the national rejuvenation of the non-ferrous metals industry is based on the domestic market. Through the investment in infrastructure and electricity, our copper demand should be stable in 2-3 years. In the medium to long term, China’s own copper demand has potential.
Unlike the aluminum-zinc industry, domestic refined copper is the absolute import direction. Although mining and smelting enterprises suffered heavy losses and sharp declines in profits at the end of last year, some fell below the cost line, but the excess situation was mainly caused by the rapid decline in demand. After we make optimistic judgments on refined copper consumption, the refined copper supply chain should be able to achieve stable development, and refined copper production can achieve steady growth. In the first quarter, the performance of a number of non-ferrous listed companies has seen a significant reduction in losses. Most companies began to make profits in April and it is expected that they will basically complete their turnaround in the second quarter.
"Planning" proposed the goal of increasing the copper raw material guarantee capacity to 38% in 2011, and encouraged the development of domestic and foreign resources, and provided generous financing concessions. According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ April non-ferrous metal production data, the self-sufficiency rate of copper concentrate in the first four months was only 22.7%, but the cumulative output of refined copper increased by 6.7% year-on-year. The growth rate of copper concentrate was better than that of smelting, and the cumulative increase was 9.5% year-on-year. .
The decline in the growth rate of smelting production is related to the slump in the price of sulfuric acid and the reduction in the use of recycled copper resources. The plan points out that in 2009 the country will eliminate 300,000 tons of outdated copper smelting capacity and strictly implement the access standards, filing system, and accountability system. The elimination of backward production capacity has limited impact on refined copper supply. The most important key to the domestic copper smelting industry is also the protection of raw materials. The plan emphasizes the strengthening of cooperation among industry associations (commercial associations). We hope that the TC/RC negotiations on processing fees will play a more active role in the middle of the year.
For recycled copper, the plan clearly stated that the proportion of recycled copper should be increased to 35% in 2011. Domestically, recycled copper is widely used in the smelting process and copper processing industry, but the industry itself has a low degree of concentration and the dismantling process is behind. From this year's perspective, the reclaimed copper industry faces two major problems: First, imports of scrap copper raw materials due to the financial crisis in developed economies, supply constraints; Second, the domestic implementation of the value-added tax of the recycling industry, the practice of retreat, aggravate the industry Operating costs. However, this also strengthens the access threshold for the recycling industry. We believe that for renewable raw materials, in China's refined copper consumption environment, with the recovery of prices and consumption, the trend of scrap copper imports is slowly rising. The preliminary import data of scrap copper in April has reverted to 400,000 tons, basically the same as last October. As for the VAT system, it is hoped that the relevant departments will further reduce the tax rebate process and reduce the pressure on liquidity in the recycling industry.
For the copper industry, there is a relatively serious overcapacity in the industrial chain. Although the concentrated construction period is nearing completion, the overall profit of the industry is meager. The plan points out that the field of copper materials should be strengthened with technological transformation to meet the high value-added special copper materials required for high-precision deep-processing projects in the key areas of the national economy.
The “Non-ferrous Metal Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan†is a blueprint to guide the development of China's non-ferrous metals industry in the next three years. In an environment where external demand is unstable and internal growth is maintained, it will be able to secure time and opportunities for China's non-ferrous metals industry to achieve smooth operation, optimize structure, and complete industrial upgrading.
Aluminium adjusts for long-term good for Yangtze River Futures Huang Zhiquan
From the specific content of the “Regulations for Nonferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Rejuvenationâ€, the adjustment of the aluminum industry with high energy consumption is relatively large, and it will be beneficial to the overall development of the aluminum industry in the long term.
First, encouraging the export of high value-added products and strengthening technological innovation will increase the overall competitiveness of the industry. China's aluminum industry is mainly concentrated in the five major regions, among which the Pearl River Delta region is the frontier of reform and development, starting earlier, mainly in the production of aluminum profiles; Yangtze River Delta region mainly produces industrial profiles, processing and export-oriented; Henan aluminum foil with the Lord. The country has made high-performance aluminum alloy and its composite materials, large-section, hollow large aluminum alloy plates, aluminum wire, plates, strips, thin plates and other series of products processing and welding technology, deep-processing forming technology and coloring, anti-corrosion technology and related support. Equipment is listed as a priority for the development of high-tech industries. The recently introduced “Aluminum Industry Access Requirements†stipulates that the product structure of newly-built aluminum processing projects must be based on plates, belts, foils or extruded tubes, and industrial profiles. The production capacity of multi-variety integrated aluminum processing projects must reach 100,000 tons/above. The production capacity of single-species aluminum processing projects must reach 50,000 tons/year of sheet strip, 30,000 tons/year of foil, and 50,000 tons of extrusion material/ More than a year.
The plan proposes to continue to control the export of "two high and one capital" products, and at the same time further adjust the export tax rebate rate structure of non-ferrous metal products, and study the appropriate adjustment of the export tax rebate rate for high-tech and high-value-added products. Continue to encourage the export of strips and foils, and give preferential policies for export tax rebates. The adjustment of aluminum export tax rebate policy has a significant effect on exports, but this policy change cannot be expected, increasing the uncertainty of the export market, and it does not rule out that export trade frictions will increase year by year and constitute export Constraints, but the government through policies to guide enterprise technology innovation and then expand the export of high value-added products is very beneficial to improve the overall competitiveness of the industry, after all, China can only increase the scientific and technological content of products in order to avoid being caught in the "anti-dumping trap" abroad, through the high Added value products to transfer a portion of domestic excess capacity.
Second, elimination of outdated production capacity and improvement of corporate restructuring mechanisms will help companies become bigger and stronger. The outdated production capacity in this round totaled 2.1 million tons, accounting for 8.73% of the total output of the four metals in 2008. It should be said that the policy itself has little effect on the adjustment of the supply and demand structure. However, in the main tasks, the "planning" clearly states that "in the next three years, no longer approve the construction of new or reconstructed or expanded electrolytic aluminum projects" and it will be able to control the incremental production capacity. Heavy punches, especially for the electrolytic aluminum industry, the situation of serious excess capacity, in the policy control measures reflect a clear tendency, the aluminum enterprises to accelerate out of the bottom is important.
In addition, from the available public data, as of November 2007, there were 445 aluminum smelting enterprises in China, including 29 large-scale enterprises, accounting for 6.52% of the total number of the country, 72 medium-sized enterprises, accounting for 16.18%, and small enterprises. There were 344 companies, accounting for 77.3% of the total number of enterprises in the country. However, the sales revenue of the top 10 aluminum smelting enterprises only accounted for 48.12% of the total industry revenue. The assets accounted for 46.78% of the total industry scale, and the total profit accounted for 47.87% of the total industry profits. The top-ranking aluminum smelting companies in China have not become the biggest players in the industry.
The prolonged metal bull market and market's expectation of sustained high-speed economic growth in the newly industrialized countries of the world has led to a revaluation of resource values, which has stimulated the desire of the giants in the aluminum industry to control resource prices, making the industry's integration often precede the expansion of production. When the industry's supply concentration reaches a certain level, giant companies in the industry can regulate the market within a small range. In terms of the aluminum industry, the output ratio of the five largest alumina producers and aluminum producers in the world in 2006 was 61% and 41%, respectively. Such supply concentration has given multinational companies the ability to control prices through controlling production. Only domestic elimination of outdated production capacity and restructuring of enterprises, and the establishment of several giant aluminum companies, can be used as their industry leader to stabilize the entire aluminum industry chain, so that China can gain greater pricing power internationally.
Third, the development of a recycling economy and the development of domestic and foreign resources will increase resource support capabilities. In the global aluminum supply source, recycled aluminum accounts for 28%, while the output of recycled aluminum in the United States exceeds that of primary aluminum for the first time in 2001. It can be said that recycled aluminum has become an important source of aluminum supply in developed countries, while China’s output of recycled aluminum accounts for only 17%. Far below the world level, the reason for this is that aluminum accumulated in China has not yet entered a large number of scrap-off periods at this stage, and the amount of scrap aluminum recovered is limited. Recycling aluminum and other renewable metal utilization industries have been listed as the key areas for national recycling economy development. The plan has also clearly proposed to increase the proportion of aluminum production for recycled aluminum to 25%, which will be close to the international level. However, due to the economic slowdown, economic stimulus measures and industrial revitalization plan are difficult to quickly increase the domestic aluminum consumption level in the short term, aluminum consumption will continue to weaken, and the output of recycled aluminum will be difficult to increase in 2009. At the same time, the huge raw aluminum capacity waiting to be released The threat of recycled aluminum will continue to exist.
The output of recycled aluminum will gradually increase as China's industrialization progresses. However, the scarcity of domestic bauxite resources must be compensated by imports. Due to the substantial expansion of alumina production capacity, domestically produced bauxite has been insufficient to meet downstream demand, and the decline in taste has led to greater demand for ore. Now and in the future, China needs to import large amounts of bauxite each year. Bauxite is already a resource and is no longer a simple industrial raw material. We expect that the domestic alumina production capacity in 2010 will reach 35 million tons, of which domestically produced alumina production capacity will reach 26 million tons. Taking into account the decline in bauxite grade, the calculation will be based on 3 tons of bauxite ore and 1 ton of alumina, and the annual consumption of aluminum will be calculated. 708 million tons of earth ore, the existing domestic bauxite reserves may be warned within 10 years.
At present, about 60% of the bauxite used in non-aluminum-based alumina production comes from imports. The sources of bauxite in China's aluminum industry are: 35% self-produced, 55% to 60% domestic purchases, and the remaining imports (for Shandong branch companies). Chinalco previously stated that by 2010, the company's self-produced bauxite ratio is expected to reach 70%. On February 12 this year, China Aluminum announced that the US$19.5 billion injection of Rio Tinto should be seen as the culmination of China’s development of overseas mineral resources. At present, the low price of non-ferrous metals and the economic recession of various countries in the world can allow China with large amounts of cash overseas. The acquisition of mineral resources is a big issue. After all, the stability of upstream resources can ensure the sustainable development of China's aluminum industry.
Fourth, the establishment of a state purchasing and storage mechanism and direct power supply pilot will ease the operational dilemma of the company. The rapid fall in aluminum prices in late April caused the production cost of most electrolytic aluminum plants to be higher than that of aluminum prices again. However, if all the preferential measures and the pressure from various sources have become apparent, aluminum companies have opened the door to restart production capacity. The tumult of aluminum prices in 2008 caused nearly 1/3 of China's production capacity to be non-operational; after entering 2009, with the continued strengthening of domestic aluminum prices and the adoption of policy support measures by some provinces and cities for qualified aluminum enterprises, electrolytic aluminum The factory can recover rapidly. According to Antaike's statistics, as of the end of April, China’s reopened capacity reached 1.7 million tons, and only electrolytic aluminum capacity in Henan Province has restarted about 700,000 tons; it is expected that there will be nearly 1.5 million tons in the next two quarters. The gradual release of production capacity. On the other hand, the customs data released on May 12 showed that the import volume of alumina in April was 650,000 tons, which was the highest monthly import since 2008, second only to the monthly imports of 660,000 tons in January 2008. the amount. The import volume of alumina in April increased by 140% from the previous month, and the cumulative imports from January to April was 1.67 million tons, a decrease of 2.91% year-on-year. At the same time, the price of alumina has also seen a certain recovery since bottoming out in February this year, and Chinalco has raised the price of alumina twice on January 19 and April 1 this year, and the price was 2,000 yuan from the beginning of the year. / Ton rose to the current 2,300 yuan / ton.
Also in the rebound of aluminum prices, domestic aluminum prices were stronger than foreign ones. In April alone, the amount of unforged aluminum and aluminum imports reached 439,902 tons, which was nearly double the month-on-month increase in March; cumulative imports from January to April. It reached 703,545 tons, a year-on-year increase of 118%. In April, the export volume of unforged aluminum was only 5,868 tons, which was a further decline from the export volume in March. From January to April, 42857 tons of unwrought aluminum were exported, down 80.65% year-on-year. Obviously, this is the result of the resumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum plant in March. Due to the resumption of aluminum production and the large increase in imports, the Chinese market re-excess production capacity, while the excess capacity to digest only through the increase in export efforts and domestic storage to complete, in the plan is mentioned through the improvement of export tax policy and pay close attention to the establishment of the national purchasing and storage mechanism to fulfill. However, the European and American economies have not shown signs of improvement. It is still unclear whether China's domestic excess production capacity can be exported in large quantities, and the state and local governments' reserves will help to ease the supply pressure brought about by the resumption of production, but it cannot completely eliminate the surplus.
Due to the obstruction of exports and the weakening of demand from the real estate sector, it is difficult for aluminum consumption to rebound strongly, and the pattern of slow recovery is still maintained. Therefore, the aluminum industry can only realize cost management from itself, and this plan proposes to promote direct power supply pilots, and The scope of direct power supply will be gradually expanded. At present, 15 aluminum companies have been included in the scope of the pilot, but there has been no substantive progress. The issuance of the "Plan" will help promote this work. Electrolytic aluminum companies have higher power consumption. According to the minimum standard of 13,000 kWh, the cost per ton of aluminum will be reduced by 130 yuan for every 1 cent of electricity price reduction, and the total cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2008 will be reduced by 1.713 billion yuan. At present, the cost of electricity for most aluminum enterprises in China is more than 0.4 yuan, while the direct purchase agreement price may be close to 0.3 yuan, so the direct purchase of electricity has an important role in reducing the production costs of aluminum enterprises. Before this, Henan Province has already started pilot direct power supply measures, which will play a role in reducing the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in the province. If large-scale direct power supply schemes are implemented, it will undoubtedly play a positive role in reducing the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum.
How the zinc effect is critical to the implementation
For the zinc industry, the Nonferrous Metals Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan clearly encourages the concentration of production capacity for large-scale zinc smelting enterprises. However, within a short period of three years, can it change the dispersion of production capacity, serious pollution, and insufficient supply of zinc resources in the domestic zinc industry? The key to the difficulties lies in how to reasonably combine the actual conditions of the industry and implement the policy measures.
"Planning" pointed out that in 2009 it strived to keep the non-ferrous metal industry operating stably. Affected by the characteristics of resource distribution, China's zinc smelting and mineral production capacity are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of Yunnan, Hunan and Inner Mongolia, and are mostly local pillar industries. The financial crisis has had a huge impact on China’s metal zinc industry, and there has been a large-scale production suspension in the industry. Due to production restriction, local industrial production has been affected by a negative impact. Using government policies to support the stable operation of the industry will not only help stabilize the economy, but also help promote economic development in the central and western regions.
The elimination of outdated smelting capacity is the key content of the plan. Judging from the current status of the domestic zinc industry, overcapacity of smelting production and low industrial concentration are one of the prominent contradictions in the development of the industry. Although China has been ranked first in global zinc output for 16 consecutive years, only 10 smelting enterprises have exceeded 100,000 tons, accounting for 47% of the country's total output, while output is less than 10,000 tons. There are more than 100 zinc smelting enterprises. From statistical data, China's zinc smelting capacity in 2007 has exceeded 4 million tons, and the expansion of smelting capacity in 2008 and 2009 were 550,000 tons and 350,000 tons, respectively, and it will expand by 1.05 million tons from 2010 to 2011. The rapid expansion of China's zinc smelting capacity in recent years is mainly due to the rapid release of global zinc production capacity after 2005, resulting in excess supply of zinc concentrate, and the cost of zinc smelting continued to soar, reaching a peak of US$360. Due to the high profit of smelting, it stimulated the construction of new smelting projects at home and abroad. In addition, the high-speed growth of the domestic downstream galvanized sheet industry in recent years has driven downstream demand and has also driven smelting companies to accelerate the pace of production expansion. However, after entering 2008, due to the continuous decline in zinc prices, some high-cost mining companies began to shut down production capacity or reduce production capacity, leading to the global supply of raw materials tends to be tight, spot smelting costs of imported zinc ore fell to about 100 US dollars, while the downstream domestic galvanized The release of plate production capacity also slowed down significantly, resulting in low demand for metal zinc ingots. As the inventory of smelting companies rises, the company’s cash flow tends to be tight, and the problem of overcapacity in domestic production is beginning to appear. Although the excess capacity of zinc smelting is not very serious relative to the electrolytic aluminum industry, it is even more noteworthy that due to the large number of small-scale zinc smelting enterprises in China, the widespread use of wet smelting processes has not only caused serious environmental pollution problems, And it is very easy to stimulate social conflicts. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the continued sluggishness of the domestic galvanized industry, the pressure on the supply of imported refined zinc continues to increase. According to Antaike’s prediction, the domestic zinc surplus will be around 500,000 tons in 2009. If we can achieve the goal of eliminating 400,000 tons of zinc smelting capacity, it will help to solve the problem of domestic oversupply, but the key issue is how to eliminate backward production capacity. At the same time to achieve the goal of controlling total production capacity. The author believes that, first of all, we should strictly implement the access conditions for lead and zinc industries, increase capital requirements for new smelting projects, and restrict new production capacity. Second, we should cautiously use the practice of eliminating backward production capacity through technological transformation. Judging from the practical results of domestic steel industry's control of production capacity in 2005, some smelting enterprises have expanded their new production capacity while eliminating backward production capacity, resulting in a doubling of total smelting capacity. Due to the extremely easy recovery of small enterprises' production capacity, in the rapidly deteriorating market conditions, large-scale smelting enterprises have higher production costs due to the large investment in new projects, and the competitive advantages of scale and advanced technologies are not obvious. In the adjustment of the industry, competitiveness It is not as good as a small business with backward production capacity. Therefore, for the zinc smelting industry, elimination of outdated production capacity, in addition to the natural elimination of the application of technological transformation methods, should pay more attention to environmental protection requirements for smelting enterprises, by increasing the environmental costs of smelting enterprises, highlighting the cost disadvantage of lagging smelting processes, forcing some of the production capacity forever Sexual withdrawal from the market may incentivize enterprises to actively adopt new processes and achieve the purpose of eliminating backward production capacity while controlling new production capacity. In addition to eliminating some of the production capacity through industrial upgrading, controlling production capacity through corporate restructuring methods is also a path to be considered. However, from the experience of other industries, government-driven corporate restructuring is often not very satisfactory, and state-owned enterprises do not account for metal zinc smelting enterprises. Obvious dominant position, smelting enterprises more diversified nature of property rights, corporate restructuring should be based on the principle of market-oriented, supplemented by the guidance of national fiscal and taxation policies.
Developing domestic and foreign resources and enhancing resource support capabilities are also among the highlights of the revitalization plan. From the perspective of business practices, currently large-scale zinc smelting companies in China have begun to try to integrate roads. The main method is to change from a single smelting enterprise to a non-ferrous enterprise through acquisition of a mine. Judging from the current status of domestic mineral resources, although there is a certain increase in the amount of resources, due to insufficient prior exploration investment, the current domestic resource reserves are seriously deficient, and most provinces have reserve protection for more than 10 years. Moreover, China's lead-zinc ore is characterized by more small and medium-sized ore deposits, which results in the concentration of mineral enterprises still lower than that of smelting enterprises. Nearly 50% of the mineral enterprises have annual zinc concentrate production below 10,000 tons, and most of them are medium and low-grade taste minerals. Therefore, under the pressure of expansion of smelting capacity, the pressure of resource bottleneck began to show that in recent years, China's dependence on foreign materials has been around 30%. In the first quarter of 2009, due to tight domestic supply, 50% of raw materials depended on imports, and the resource disadvantage became more obvious. From the perspective of resource development, the distribution of domestic zinc ore is extremely uneven. Southwest China, such as Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, have rich resource reserves and are the provinces that have exported more mineral resources. Therefore, when considering the development of domestic resources, we should encourage the transfer of zinc smelting projects to the southwest and northwest regions. This not only conforms to the laws of industrial transfer, but also improves the efficiency of the use of mineral resources and is also in line with the overall strategy for the development of the western region. However, overall, due to the weak support capacity of domestic zinc resources, it is an inevitable choice to increase foreign resources development. China's zinc concentrate imports are mainly concentrated in Australia and other countries. Affected by the financial crisis, some foreign mining companies have encountered difficulties in financing. For enterprises with sufficient domestic cash flow, they face better opportunities for mergers and acquisitions of mining resources. The revitalization plan should promptly introduce detailed encouragement and support measures in encouraging enterprises to develop overseas resources. The author believes that in the development of external resources, it should be differentiated from domestic resource development, and it should not be overemphasized to support key enterprises. Should try to ensure the diversification of investment bodies, private enterprises, state-owned enterprises, joint-stock companies should have the opportunity to participate in external development of resources, and decentralize the political risk of external resources investment. Secondly, diversification of investment methods should be encouraged, including holding projects or companies, equity participation projects, etc. Encourage enterprises to develop mineral resources in cooperation and diversify investment risks. In addition to the development of mineral resources, the emphasis on the recycling of renewable resources is also a feasible way to improve resource security. At present, the scale of recycled zinc in China is relatively small. The annual output of recycled zinc is only about 50,000 tons, which is far less than the scale of reclaimed lead of nearly 700,000 tons. There is great potential for the development and utilization of renewable resources.
In addition to the above two points, the expansion of the country's purchasing and storage scale is also worthy of attention. According to relevant media reports, the state plans to collect and store 1 million tons of aluminum, 400,000 tons of copper, and 400,000 tons of lead and zinc. In addition, local governments in Guangxi and Yunnan have also proposed similar plans for storage and storage. Yunnan plans to receive 1 million yuan for storage. Tons, of which 300,000 tons of zinc, Guangxi's purchase and storage plan also has 460,000 tons. As of the end of April, the National Reserve Bureau has collected 300,000 tons of copper, 290,000 tons of aluminum, and 159,000 zinc. Although the purchase and storage cannot reverse the fact that the global demand for excess supply of zinc metal has fallen, it has played a significant role in supporting prices in the short term, which has greatly eased the tight cash flow situation of production companies. In the long run, since China is a country that is extremely deficient in the per capita resources of non-ferrous metals, it is of great strategic importance to establish a national nonferrous metal resources reserve system under the condition of financial strength guarantee. However, there are obvious operational problems in China's current collection and storage practices. First, it lacks transparency, and it easily causes abnormal market fluctuations. In the future, we can refer to the model of state-owned public service agencies in Korea, announce plans for advance purchases and storage in advance, and prices are determined by the bidding method. Avoid unexpected shocks on prices. Secondly, in 2009, the large-scale storage and storage targets in China were mainly state-owned large-scale enterprises, and the prices were higher than the market transaction prices. Although the cash flow problems of some large-scale enterprises were solved, there was a clear lack of market fairness and the spot prices were supported. It also slowed down the pace of industrial adjustment. Some backward production capacity enterprises also regained their vitality. In addition, they also caused a large influx of imported metal zinc resources, which impacted the domestic market and in effect caused the outflow of financial subsidies.