Inventory of the top ten events affecting the A-share market in 2011

Editor's Note: In 2011, under the influence of factors such as slowing global economic growth, increasing domestic inflation, tightening monetary policy, and increasing pressure on RMB appreciation, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from the high of 3067 points in April. By 2149 points, it hit a two-year low, and the overall decline was over 20%, making it one of the biggest stock markets in the world. At the end of the year, we are looking forward to the future. At the same time, we will not forget the piles and pieces that have been disturbed in the coming year. This newspaper has selected the impact of China from 2011. The ten biggest events in the stock market. Economic growth rate fell quarter by quarter In the first three quarters of 2011, the growth rate of China's industrial added value declined, which had a negative impact on China's economic development and also exerted downward pressure on the stock market. According to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first, second and third quarters of this year increased by 14.4%, 14% and 13.8%, respectively, showing a trend of falling quarter by quarter. Since the beginning of this year, the European and American sovereign debt crisis has worsened, especially the European debt crisis has gradually intensified, the world economic growth has slowed down, the growth rate of international trade has declined, the international financial market has been violently turbulent, and various risks have increased significantly. There are also some unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable contradictions and problems in China's economic development. The downward pressure of economic growth and the pressure of rising prices have coexisted. Some enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have experienced difficulties in production and management. Some areas such as economics and finance have emerged. Potential risks that cannot be ignored. This has added difficulties for the development of China's enterprises and the smooth operation of the economy. The capital chain has broken, the boss has "running the road", and the company has closed down... The survival of small and medium-sized enterprises has once become a topic of concern. However, the results of the sample survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics on 38,000 small and micro enterprises across the country show that there has not been a large-scale closure of small and micro enterprises in the country. However, SMEs do have many difficulties or problems. In order to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, the government has introduced some policy measures. Following the October 12th executive meeting of the State Council to determine the financial and financial support policies for small and micro enterprises, on October 25, the CBRC also issued the Supplementary Notice on Supporting Commercial Banks to Further Improve Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises, Supporting Commercial Banks. Increase the loan to small and micro enterprises. The financing difficulties of SMEs are expected to be gradually eased. In 2011, China's economic growth rate has declined. Although it is related to negative factors at home and abroad, it is mainly based on active downward adjustment under macroeconomic regulation and control. The slowdown in economic growth has had a certain negative impact on the stock market. Investors' expectations for the future earnings of the company have declined, and the prospects for economic development are not optimistic. The uncertainties in the future will increase. Many factors have affected the downward trend of the stock market. pressure. The CPI rose to a maximum of 6.5%. The rapid rise of inflation will affect the healthy development of the economy and will also have a negative impact on the operation of the stock market. In response to the global financial crisis that began in 2008, China's money supply continued to operate at a high level. Financial institutions' RMB loans increased by 33% year-on-year in 2008, and increased by 98.72% year-on-year in 2009. In 2010, it broke through 75,000. The control target of 100 million yuan reached 79,235 trillion. The broad money M2 supply increased by 27.58% in 2009, the highest value in 13 years, and the year-on-year growth in 2010 reached 19.73%. With a total GDP growth of 2,147.6 billion yuan, the M2 balance increased by 427.41 billion yuan, and the money supply growth was twice the GDP growth. Excessive money supply caused inflation to rise. China's CPI increased by 4.6% year-on-year in December, CPI increased by 4.9% in January, and CPI rose to 5.5% in May, a record high in 34 months. In June, the CPI was 6.4%, a new high in three years. The July CPI reached 6.5%, the highest value in the year. On February 1, 2011, Premier Wen Jiabao said that this year we must resolutely prevent the price from rising too fast and keep the overall price level basically stable. On February 2, Premier Wen stressed again during his inspection in Shandong that the top priority of economic work this year is to stabilize prices. The People's Bank of China announced on February 8 that since the 9th, the benchmark interest rates for one-year deposits and loans of financial institutions have been raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans of other grades have been adjusted accordingly. Premier Wen Jiabao made two statements on the inflation issue, and the central bank raised interest rates, which reflected the government's attention and concern about inflation. In order to control the excessive rise of prices, the Chinese government has adopted various measures such as tightening the currency, reducing circulation, reducing taxes and fees, and increasing the support for agriculture. As various measures were timely, effective and effective, the inflation rate began to decline year-on-year in August, and the current downward trend of inflation began to take shape. Monetary tightening and rising inflation have caused the A-share market to fall, and the formation of a downward trend in inflation has brought the expectation of a monetary policy shift to the stock market, which has created conditions for the A-share market to go out of the downturn.
Three times to raise interest rates three times to raise the quasi-gold The tight monetary policy will curb economic expansion and will have a negative impact on the stock market. In January 2010, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year. In December 2010, CPI was 4.6%. The annual CPI was 3.3%, and the price level showed an upward trend. One of the important arrangements for the 2010 Central Economic Work Conference is to put the overall level of stable prices in a more prominent position. The country’s monetary policy has therefore shifted from “moderately loose” for two years to “stable”. In the January 2011 financial operation data released by the central bank, the growth rate of money supply fell more than expected, and the gap between the supply and demand of the basic money in the inter-bank market was as high as 255 billion, resulting in the weighted average interest rate of interbank borrowings in the month was significantly higher than 2.92% in December last year. It rose to 3.7%, and the signal of monetary tightening is very obvious. According to the financial statistics report released by the central bank in each month of 2011, the broad money (M2) increased by 16.6% in the first quarter; the broad money (M2) increased by 15.9% in the second quarter; the broad money (M2) increased by 13.0 in the third quarter. %. At the end of October, broad money (M2) increased by 12.9% year-on-year; at the end of November, broad money (M2) increased by 12.7% year-on-year, and broad-year growth of broad money (M2) showed a downward trend. In the first quarter, the narrow money (M1) increased by 15.0% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the narrow money (M1) increased by 13.1% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the narrow money (M1) increased by 8.9% year-on-year. At the end of October, the narrow money (M1) increased by 8.4% year-on-year; At the end of the month, it increased by 7.8% compared with the previous narrow money (M1). The year-on-year increase in the narrow money (M1) also showed a downward trend. In addition to the slowdown in the volume of money, the central bank also raised interest rates three times in 2011, raised the RMB deposit and loan reserve ratio six times, and used cost-based and quantitative tools to tighten liquidity. The RMB deposit and loan reserve ratio increased from 18.5% at the end of 2010 to 21.5% in June 2011. The tightening of liquidity has effectively controlled prices, but the tightening of liquidity has increased the difficulty of financing and increased the difficulty of business management. Difficulties in business operations have led to a decline in profit expectations, a decline in the currency from tight economic activity, and a shrinking economic scale. These factors will affect the operation of the stock market. The weak trend and decline of the stock market this year is not unrelated to the tight monetary policy. The real estate regulation and control continued to strengthen. The continuous control measures of real estate were becoming more and more severe, the real estate sector continued to fall, and the A-share trend became softer. Since 2003, the state has issued a series of regulatory policies in response to problems such as excessive housing price increases in some cities. However, from the perspective of regulation and control, the problem of excessive housing price increases in some cities such as Beijing has not been fundamentally resolved. On January 26, 2011, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting to kick off the third round of real estate regulation. "New China Eight Articles" has become the most stringent policy combination in China's real estate regulation and control policies in recent years. According to the requirements of the "New China Eight Articles", the "restriction of purchase" rules in various places will be introduced one after another. After nearly a year of regulation, the real estate industry has begun to adjust. According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics of 70 large and medium-sized cities in November, compared with the previous month, there were 49 cities with new commercial housing prices falling, and 16 cities with flat prices. In terms of second-hand housing, compared with the previous month, there were 51 cities with falling prices and 12 cities with flat prices. Prices in more cities began to fall from rising to falling. In order to further consolidate the results of regulation and control, the 2011 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the real estate control policy and unswervingly promote the reasonable return of housing prices. The intention of the central government to strengthen real estate control policies has not changed. Following the clear statement that Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing will continue to implement the housing purchase restriction policy in December, Shanghai’s clear statement on December 20th means that the first-tier cities in China’s real estate industry will continue to be restricted in 2012. The market conditions of the real estate sector in 2011 are mainly determined by policies. Industry fundamentals, especially volume adjustments and investment declines, are the main drivers of the continued decline in the sector. As of this year, as of December 23, due to policy repression and performance decline, the real estate sector fell by 19.38%, and the valuation of the sector continued to hit a record low. The European debt crisis is not overshadowed The European debt crisis has seriously threatened the security of the financial system, hindered the recovery of the world economy and exacerbated the turmoil in the global financial market. On December 6, 2009, S&P took the lead in lowering the rating of Greek sovereign debt, followed by Fitch and Moody. At that time, the financial community generally believed that the Greek economic system was small, and the impact of the debt crisis would not expand, and did not attract widespread attention. . However, as the Greek sovereign debt crisis heats up, other European countries have begun to fall into a quagmire. The crisis has spread rapidly from the peripheral countries of the euro zone to the core countries. Germany, the number one economic power in Europe, is also in jeopardy. In 2011, the European debt crisis slowed down due to the European debt crisis. The Eurozone economy has been in a moderate recession. The economic downturn has affected world trade and trade protectionism has risen. Europe is facing the risk of a catastrophic vicious circle as Europe fails to effectively resolve the sovereign debt crisis. The financial risks brought about by the European debt crisis are seriously threatening the stability of international finance. The panic caused by the crisis has also hit the confidence of financial markets. The European debt crisis has intensified, causing violent fluctuations in the global commodity market, risk agglomeration, and driven by risk aversion, gold prices have risen sharply. The shock wave of shrinking global demand was quickly transmitted to China. Not only was the domestic real economy affected, but also the A-share market in China was hit hard. The performance of some foreign-listed companies fell sharply. The pessimistic expectations aggravated the overall short-selling atmosphere of the market. From January 31 to December 23, 2011, China's Shanghai Composite Index fell by 29.81%. Today, the European debt crisis that has affected the global economy and the capital market is far from over, and the tension in the global financial market is still difficult to ease. In view of the fact that the current EU leaders' differences will exist in a short period of time, the economic prospects of the Eurozone are more uncertain, and pessimism still needs to be repaired. It remains to be seen whether the global stock market can get rid of the weakness. The appreciation of the renminbi "Ben six" The appreciation of the renminbi has a complicated impact on China's economy, both positive and negative. For the stock market, it is a favorable factor and a favorable factor. The appreciation of China's renminbi is mainly due to the continued surplus of the balance of payments, the rise of the economy, and strong expectations for the appreciation of the renminbi. This has both economic and political factors. The appreciation of the renminbi has advantages and disadvantages for our economy. On the positive side, it improves trade conditions; curbs inflation; digests excess foreign exchange reserves; promotes rational allocation of resources; reduces interference from foreign exchange holdings on monetary policy autonomy; and reduces trade friction. The downside is that reducing the international competitiveness of products leads to unemployment; triggering the impact of “hot money” on the financial system; ignoring the inherent pressure of hidden fiscal deficits on the depreciation of the yuan; meeting the expectations of speculative capital and creating asset bubbles. With the rapid development of China's economy and the deepening of reforms, the process of internationalization of various industries is accelerating, and the need for the renminbi to become internationalized, the appreciation of the renminbi is inevitable. However, at present, China's economic restructuring has not yet been completed, and the proportion of foreign trade exports to the national economy is still very large. There are not many enterprises with competitive advantages among export-oriented enterprises. The excessive appreciation of the renminbi will hit the export industry, and will also affect the domestic related industries that supply raw materials and parts to the export industry, thereby significantly reducing output, employment and income, jeopardizing social stability; it will also amplify the financial market bubble and increase the financial crisis. Hidden dangers, so maintaining a stable and long-term appreciation of the renminbi will not only help to enhance the competitiveness of exporting companies, but also the requirements for the internationalization of the renminbi. The excessive appreciation of the renminbi will have an impact on China's economy, but long-term pressure on the renminbi exchange rate is also not conducive to long-term economic development. The central government's strategy of selecting a stable and slow appreciation of the renminbi will not only ensure that the interests of China's export industries are not impaired, but also promote the export industry to enhance its competitiveness, while taking into account the interests of the import industry, which is more conducive to the stable operation of the financial market, and is to ensure the overall state. A sensible move to maximize profits. On December 23, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.32. This year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar (middle price) has appreciated by 4.756%. The appreciation of the RMB will continue. In the long run, the appreciation of the RMB will help China's economic restructuring. It is conducive to industrial upgrading, is conducive to improving the competitiveness of enterprises, and is conducive to China becoming an economic power. Economic development, industrial upgrading, and improved corporate competitiveness will all have a positive effect on the healthy operation of the stock market. Policy fine-tuning to maintain growth The 2009 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. By the end of 2010, the world economy still faces many uncertainties, and the pressure on domestic prices has increased. In this context, 2011 macroeconomic policies began to show new trends. In 2010, the Central Economic Work Conference will coordinate the current and long-term goals. It is required to solve the current outstanding problems in 2011, and we must effectively promote the resolution of deep-seated contradictions and resolve potential risks, laying a good foundation for long-term development. It said that it is necessary to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. This is the combination of the “one loose and stable” regulation after China’s response to the Asian financial crisis in 1998 to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Adhere to the strategic adjustment of the economic structure as the main direction of accelerating the transformation of economic development. It is necessary to adjust the optimization demand structure and enhance the consumption driving force. It is necessary to intensify reforms and strengthen the way of economic development. And the meeting called for the "stable price level" to be placed in a more prominent position. Controlling inflation has become the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control work in 2011. "Do not blindly pursue high speed, comprehensively strengthen price regulation and regulation," and "put a good liquidity gate" The expressions are all about the macroeconomic policy that basically focuses on the goal of controlling inflation. In the economic work in 2011, all regions have rationally determined their development goals, paid more attention to the quality and efficiency of growth, and mainly relied on economic and legal means, supplemented by necessary administrative means, and comprehensively strengthened the supervision of price regulation. However, the negative impacts that followed have gradually emerged. Large-scale investment, development, and construction work has decreased, macroeconomic growth has slowed, market liquidity has weakened, and capital markets have been weak. From the beginning of 2011 to December 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 20.1%, the non-ferrous metal sector fell by 37.6%, the mechanical sector fell by 29.61%, the engineering and construction sector fell by 29.29%, the steel sector fell by 27.99%, and the railway infrastructure sector fell by 25.84%.
The 12th Five-Year Plan for the 12th Five-Year Plan will play a positive role in promoting China's economic development in the next five years, and will also be a long-term positive for the stock market. 2011 is the first year of implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. Under the dual challenges of the financial crisis and natural disasters, the Chinese economy maintained steady and rapid growth during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period and achieved a new leap. The Twelfth Five-Year Plan has laid a solid foundation for the better and faster development of China's economy. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outlines the guiding ideology, main objectives, strategic priorities and major measures for economic and social development in the next five years, and is an important guiding document for China's economic and social development in the coming period. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outline runs through the theme of scientific development as the main line, and accelerates the transformation of economic development mode. It sets policy orientation, sets planning goals, and clarifies strategic priorities around the main theme. The implementation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will enable China's modern agriculture to achieve great development, which will enable enterprises to upgrade and upgrade their competitiveness, which will enable the rapid development of strategic emerging industries, improve the quality and level of China's service industry, and develop and utilize new Energy and clean energy will greatly improve the environment, increase labor income, improve people's lives, prosper and develop cultural undertakings and cultural industries, improve the quality of the people's civilization, implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education and strengthening the country through talents, improve the ability to innovate, and persist in reform and opening up to improve the socialist market economic system. In the next five years, China's economy will continue to grow at a relatively high growth rate, and its share in the world economy will be greater. Enterprises will be more competitive and economic benefits will be better. This is also the healthy development of China's stock market. The foundation and protection. Deepening Economic Structural Adjustment Economic restructuring is an inevitable process for China's transition from an economic power to an economic power. Industrial upgrading, technological progress, and enhanced competitiveness will improve economic quality and will also be a stock market vitality. Since the Central Economic Work Conference in 2010 put forward the "strategic adjustment of the economic structure and the transformation of the economic development mode", there have been many positive changes in China's economic structure. "Adjustment" and "transformation" have been running through the various economic work in 2011. Always. Since the beginning of this year, world economic growth has slowed down, international trade growth has slowed down, international financial markets have been violently turbulent, various types of risks have increased significantly, and the uncertainty of instability in the recovery of the world economy has risen. The problem of overcapacity in many domestic industries is concentrated, the constraints on resources and the ecological environment are increasingly strengthened, the structural and institutional contradictions accumulated over a long period of time are intertwined, new difficulties and challenges are constantly emerging, and the criticality and urgency of the strategic adjustment of China's economy. Obvious. After the promotion of various regions and relevant departments, the proportion of strategic emerging industries in GDP has increased significantly. New energy, new materials, information networks and other fields have achieved a large number of achievements, energy structure and resource utilization efficiency have improved significantly; the frontier field of life sciences has formed a pharmaceutical R&D industrial chain; new energy vehicles, energy conservation and environmental protection materials, cultural and creative industries and other countries support Strategic emerging industries have gradually become investment hotspots. In this wave of rally across October and October, the rise in emerging industry stocks easily exceeded the broader market. Among them, the most striking is the cultural media industry, where industrial attributes are constantly being valued and the industrial development process is continuously advancing. Policy support, financial security, the release of spiritual and cultural needs, and the country's strategy of upgrading cultural strength have made the cultural media industry stand out. The great development and prosperity of culture has injected vitality into the capital market. While the capital market is getting the source and the living water, it will also provide an effective resource allocation platform for the cultural industry. Since 2011, China Digital Group, Zhejiang News Media and other backdoor ST companies have successfully listed, which is the focus of the market, and in the rebound of the A-share market in late October, it is also the role of the education media sector, October. From the 24th to the 15th of November, the education media sector soared 25.03%. The transfer business was launched on October 19, 2011. As a securities finance company that is the main body of the transfer business, China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. was officially approved. As the margin financing and securities lending business officially “turned to the routine”, the transfer and financing method was officially released. On October 28, the CSRC officially issued the “Trial Measures for the Supervision and Management of the Refinancing and Trading Business”, and also issued the “Administrative Measures on the Securities and Margin Trading of Securities Companies” and the Internal Control of the Securities and Margin Trading of Securities Companies. Guideline. Compared with the draft published on August 19th, the revised “Return to the Measures” has apparently relaxed on the risk control indicators, and margin financing and securities lending will become a regular business of brokerage firms. Once the transfer business system is established, it will have a profound and long-term impact on the A-share market. Judging from the progress of the original margin financing and securities lending business, since the business target is limited to the broker's own funds and its own securities, its scale and variety are very limited. The new refinancing business system will be financed and securitiesd through a specialized financial institution, a securities financing company. Moreover, social security funds, insurance funds, public funds, and even major shareholders of listed companies will participate. The funds available for financing and the number of shares available for securities lending will have economies of scale, and the scale of margin financing and securities lending will be rapid. Expanded, so Rongrongtong is an “upgrade version” of the margin financing and securities lending business. After the transfer, the blue-chip stock positions held by funds and insurance companies and other institutions can be “loaned” through securities finance companies, which can obtain corresponding income and increase market liquidity. At the same time, it adds a powerful tool to the A-share market that can only do more, which makes the strength of both sides more balanced. The introduction of the transfer and financing system means that the era of short selling in the A-share market will officially come. The emergence of a short-selling mechanism will profoundly change the long-short market pattern and investment operation strategy of the market.

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