introduction:
When the first "World Commodity Market Almanac" was published in 1986, China only played an edge role in the international commodity market. Twenty-five years later, when the authoritative book on the world commodity market first appeared in the Chinese version, China was already the world’s second-largest economy, the largest exporter, the largest automotive market, and the largest energy consumer... China Has occupied a vital position in the international commodity market.
At present, commodities have become the focus of attention of countries in the world. In China, issues such as food security, strategic material reserves, energy self-sufficiency, commodity pricing rights, commodity derivatives markets (**markets, electronic trading markets), inflation and exchange rate issues are directly or indirectly related to bulk commodities. It has become the focus of attention and research for China's economic policy makers, industry, and the financial community.
Some analysts pointed out that the first decade of the 21st century is a decade of “Made in China†and the second decade will be “a decade of commodity tradeâ€. As mentioned above, China’s position in the commodity sector is so important that it has benefited mainly from “made in China†in the previous decade. Commodities are another important area for China to influence the world after “Made in Chinaâ€. We have noticed that in some important commodities, China has become the largest buyer in reality, "China's demand" has become a barometer in the international market, and some signs of a shift from net exports to net imports have all shown signs of a game in the international commodity market. Pull open. Is China a "rising agent" for international commodity markets or a "nurse"? This is a topic worthy of consideration.
Price's "accelerating agent"
From 2008 to 2010, from non-ferrous metals to food, from coal to art, China’s demand for ubiquitous global commodity influence. At the same time, the shortage of raw materials, the rise of trade protectionism, and the leaping increase in market prices of international commodities have also made the sustainable development of the Chinese economy a serious challenge. In particular, since the second half of 2010, the world’s commodity markets have experienced a “price crisis†in the true sense. Prices of commodities such as iron ore, non-ferrous metals, natural rubber, sugar, and coffee have been on the rise for months. At the end of the year, due to the debt crisis in Europe and investors’ concerns about the tightening of emerging market policies in China, India, and Brazil, the commodity prices also turned “emergent†and fell back. The researcher pointed out that the constraints on the supply side of the market have become the main reason for the large price fluctuations, and the Chinese market has played a role that can affect the overall situation. Of course, this also includes factors such as supply disruptions caused by industrial or social reasons, dramatic increase in costs, relative shortage of resources, and geopolitical tensions.
It is understood that the apparent consumption of 9 important commodities (coal, iron ore, petroleum, electrolytic aluminum, steel, copper, zinc, rubber, and sugar) in China was above 6.3 billion tons in 2010, an increase of 11% over the previous year. ~14%, of which the increase in oil, coal, and iron ore three species reached or exceeded 12%. At present, China is in an important period of urbanization. Some experts predict that in the next 10 years, China's crude steel demand will reach 900 million tons, which will inevitably lead to huge amounts of iron ore, coking coal, and fuel oil. demand.
The support of China's demand is bound to pull up international commodity prices. The first is the surge in imports. From January to August 2010, the import volume of nine important commodities in China was nearly 700 million tons, accounting for 19.3% of the demand, an increase of 9.8% over the previous year, of which coal imports increased by 46% year-on-year, and oil imports increased by 22.6. %. By September 2010, the national commodity price index was up by 4.4% from the beginning of the year and 14.3% from the same period of last year. Among the important commodities, the price of mineral products rose the most, sugar prices rose 38.8%, rubber rose 37.2%, and metals and energy rose about 12%. According to calculations, China’s bulk commodity imports continue to grow at a relatively large rate, and the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the Chinese economy is self-evident.
Disputes over the right to speak The global commodity market has entered an era of integration. The new situation has set new tasks for how Chinese companies can influence commodity production operations and price formation mechanisms. As everyone knows, whoever has mastered the right to speak of the price, whoever controls the profit distribution of commodities, the current weakness in the pricing power of international bulk commodities has severely restricted the development of the economy.
China is the world’s largest population, the largest energy consumer, and the second largest economy. It should play a more constructive role in the pricing power of commodities.
Take copper metal as an example. In 2010, the consumption of refined copper in China was 7.92 million tons, accounting for about 44% of global copper consumption. The current trend of copper prices is still dominated by the price of the London Stock Exchange; China's soybean consumption in 2010 The amount is 67.19 million tons, which is 1.4 times that of the United States, of which 54 million tons are imported, accounting for 55% of the global import and export trade volume. Currently, the trend of soybean prices is dominated by the price of the Chicago ** exchange; palm oil China’s import volume this year is nearly 7 million tons, accounting for about 20% of the global import and export trade volume. The turnover of China’s palm oil** is 10 times that of the Malaysian trading volume, but the price direction of palm oil** is still affected by Malaysian Malaysia. The exchange price has a great influence.
Some experts pointed out that China’s lack of research on the global commodity market and the failure to form a unified pricing mechanism are important factors restricting China’s position in global commodities. Therefore, people of insight are looking forward to the following: The country should use lead and coal as an opportunity to market and strive to seek pricing power on commodities. The industry has gradually formed a unified pricing mechanism in the domestic nickel, copper, rare earth, iron ore, coal, lead and zinc and other areas as a breakthrough.
How to grasp the pricing power of commodities must be focused on the “head†and “tail†of the industry chain. It should not focus only on one of the rings in the industry chain. It needs to integrate the entire value chain of commodities. In other words, seeking pricing rights requires looking for opportunities at the front and end of the industrial value chain. The role of China in the world economy is undergoing a profound transformation from the original passive processors to the active deployment of world resources. In this transitional process, China must first take the road of independent innovation in manufacturing, and can only pursue the road to pricing in the commodity sector.
New Arrangements for China's Commodities In recent years, China's commodity market has risen significantly, with four major characteristics as a whole: Domestic demand has driven the overall consumption to grow; production has been released in large quantities and the problem of overcapacity has been alleviated; material costs have driven and prices have oscillated upwards. Therefore, in the new year China's commodity market is expected to continue to show a warming trend, tight supply and demand relations, high prices fluctuating operation, and the basic characteristics of market finance further development.
To deal with these characteristics, the layout at the national level can be basically understood as: the upgrading and expansion of material reserves; financial market innovation and qualitative change to win the right to speak; and the state's means of regulating and controlling bulk commodities must also be replaced.
It is reported that at present, the National Reserve Bureau and other agencies are conducting investigations on various varieties of bulk commodities, and they are required to demonstrate whether there is a need to make adjustments to the existing reserves, or whether new reserve varieties should be added. The reserves of various species in China are generally lower than international practices, especially oil and metals. In the future, these species are more likely to increase their reserves.
Under the new situation, the financialization of China's commodity market will further develop. For example, the establishment of iron ore ** market is being concerned and discussed in many aspects. The financialization of the iron ore market is an inevitable trend. The relevant parties took advantage of the situation to actively organize the establishment of raw materials such as iron ore and rare earth metals to realize China's own commodity index, and to use the Chinese factors to positively influence the prices of bulk commodities such as iron ore to win the price discourse for the world's mining giants. , has a very important significance.
According to a research institution, China is learning from the US's means and capabilities in the commodity market, deploying energy and resources more efficiently, and using large-scale reserves to effectively handle and regulate materials. A person who has been in contact with the decision-makers for a long time pointed out that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, ** varieties will be listed on the market first, and the specific order will probably be lead, coke, and methanol, while crude oil will accelerate its pace. Policy makers began to use ** more to understand the market and take special measures to adjust in special circumstances.
Business is the key No matter what form it takes to participate in the international commodity trade, Chinese companies will be the main players in the competition, and the enterprise's risk control is the core issue.
Some analysts believe that the "bull market" of commodities will not continue for a long time and that there will be a "market inflection point" in the future. For example, the iron ore market will change from supply shortages to oversupply within a few years. The so-called “fengshui turns†and the price will fall accordingly.
There are also views that Chinese companies do not have to stick to the red line of arable land. When domestic food, oil, and other agricultural products are insufficient, they can purchase it from the international market. It is believed that after a certain period of time, there will be a large surplus of agricultural products in the world.
Recently, some scholars have suggested that three major factors may cause large fluctuations in commodity prices. First, China's high economic growth may touch the "high growth boundary." This danger does exist. Second, high oil prices will have an impact on the European and American economies. Third, the sharp rise in commodity prices will exacerbate serious inflation in emerging economies.** The collision of the above factors may cause the global economy to fall into recession again.
In fact, blindly believe that the "turnaround point of the market" is harmful. Looking at the large market trends, with the development of the world economy, the population continues to increase, the level of consumption increases, and resources are not renewable. Almost all resource-based commodities such as oil, coal, and ore will have their supply and demand relationships in the future. The tighter, even in cereals and other planting industries, there will be no real loose supply and demand due to limited land resources. "Resource bottlenecks" will be the biggest constraint to China's economic development.
Whether it can withstand this pressure for a long time will be a serious test for Chinese companies. We need to plan ahead and deal with it properly.
First, do everything possible to obtain resources. The essence of enterprise competition is the competition of resources. Therefore, it is recommended that enterprises go out, increase investment, do everything possible to obtain resource rights and interests, and improve logistics support. It is understood that China currently owns some equity products in the total amount of bulk commodities imported by China. According to data from Sinosteel Coordination Research, in 2010, China imported 60 million tons of iron ore in its iron ore mine, and in 2011 it is expected to increase another 30 million tons. It is expected that by 2013, it will be able to form an equity mine of approximately 150 million tons. There are also reports that China's overseas investment in iron ore lock resources has reached 18 billion t.
Second, strive to reduce unit consumption. Strategically eliminating the "bottleneck constraints" of China's economic resources, it is necessary to increase expenditure and reduce expenditure. To this end, we must speed up China's economic restructuring, achieve technological progress, and vigorously carry out energy-saving emission reduction, recycling, which greatly reduces the excessive dependence of economic growth on resource consumption.
Third, speed up the development of commodity markets. On this basis, an authoritative China's commodity price index will be formed as soon as possible, which will have an impact on Chinese prices. This is an important aspect of regaining the right to speak under the new situation. In this regard, financial institutions must have foresight and close cooperation, and the state should give preferential policies to support them. Production companies and traders must also actively participate. Of course, this is a relatively new thing after all. Some companies are not familiar with it. Therefore, it needs to be treated with caution.
In short, China has the largest market for commodity demand, and we should provide a natural advantage for the establishment of the most authoritative price index for the establishment of the world's largest commodity market. Therefore, we can believe that in the near future, China will be the “going tide†in the waves of international commodity markets.
When the first "World Commodity Market Almanac" was published in 1986, China only played an edge role in the international commodity market. Twenty-five years later, when the authoritative book on the world commodity market first appeared in the Chinese version, China was already the world’s second-largest economy, the largest exporter, the largest automotive market, and the largest energy consumer... China Has occupied a vital position in the international commodity market.
At present, commodities have become the focus of attention of countries in the world. In China, issues such as food security, strategic material reserves, energy self-sufficiency, commodity pricing rights, commodity derivatives markets (**markets, electronic trading markets), inflation and exchange rate issues are directly or indirectly related to bulk commodities. It has become the focus of attention and research for China's economic policy makers, industry, and the financial community.
Some analysts pointed out that the first decade of the 21st century is a decade of “Made in China†and the second decade will be “a decade of commodity tradeâ€. As mentioned above, China’s position in the commodity sector is so important that it has benefited mainly from “made in China†in the previous decade. Commodities are another important area for China to influence the world after “Made in Chinaâ€. We have noticed that in some important commodities, China has become the largest buyer in reality, "China's demand" has become a barometer in the international market, and some signs of a shift from net exports to net imports have all shown signs of a game in the international commodity market. Pull open. Is China a "rising agent" for international commodity markets or a "nurse"? This is a topic worthy of consideration.
Price's "accelerating agent"
From 2008 to 2010, from non-ferrous metals to food, from coal to art, China’s demand for ubiquitous global commodity influence. At the same time, the shortage of raw materials, the rise of trade protectionism, and the leaping increase in market prices of international commodities have also made the sustainable development of the Chinese economy a serious challenge. In particular, since the second half of 2010, the world’s commodity markets have experienced a “price crisis†in the true sense. Prices of commodities such as iron ore, non-ferrous metals, natural rubber, sugar, and coffee have been on the rise for months. At the end of the year, due to the debt crisis in Europe and investors’ concerns about the tightening of emerging market policies in China, India, and Brazil, the commodity prices also turned “emergent†and fell back. The researcher pointed out that the constraints on the supply side of the market have become the main reason for the large price fluctuations, and the Chinese market has played a role that can affect the overall situation. Of course, this also includes factors such as supply disruptions caused by industrial or social reasons, dramatic increase in costs, relative shortage of resources, and geopolitical tensions.
It is understood that the apparent consumption of 9 important commodities (coal, iron ore, petroleum, electrolytic aluminum, steel, copper, zinc, rubber, and sugar) in China was above 6.3 billion tons in 2010, an increase of 11% over the previous year. ~14%, of which the increase in oil, coal, and iron ore three species reached or exceeded 12%. At present, China is in an important period of urbanization. Some experts predict that in the next 10 years, China's crude steel demand will reach 900 million tons, which will inevitably lead to huge amounts of iron ore, coking coal, and fuel oil. demand.
The support of China's demand is bound to pull up international commodity prices. The first is the surge in imports. From January to August 2010, the import volume of nine important commodities in China was nearly 700 million tons, accounting for 19.3% of the demand, an increase of 9.8% over the previous year, of which coal imports increased by 46% year-on-year, and oil imports increased by 22.6. %. By September 2010, the national commodity price index was up by 4.4% from the beginning of the year and 14.3% from the same period of last year. Among the important commodities, the price of mineral products rose the most, sugar prices rose 38.8%, rubber rose 37.2%, and metals and energy rose about 12%. According to calculations, China’s bulk commodity imports continue to grow at a relatively large rate, and the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on the Chinese economy is self-evident.
Disputes over the right to speak The global commodity market has entered an era of integration. The new situation has set new tasks for how Chinese companies can influence commodity production operations and price formation mechanisms. As everyone knows, whoever has mastered the right to speak of the price, whoever controls the profit distribution of commodities, the current weakness in the pricing power of international bulk commodities has severely restricted the development of the economy.
China is the world’s largest population, the largest energy consumer, and the second largest economy. It should play a more constructive role in the pricing power of commodities.
Take copper metal as an example. In 2010, the consumption of refined copper in China was 7.92 million tons, accounting for about 44% of global copper consumption. The current trend of copper prices is still dominated by the price of the London Stock Exchange; China's soybean consumption in 2010 The amount is 67.19 million tons, which is 1.4 times that of the United States, of which 54 million tons are imported, accounting for 55% of the global import and export trade volume. Currently, the trend of soybean prices is dominated by the price of the Chicago ** exchange; palm oil China’s import volume this year is nearly 7 million tons, accounting for about 20% of the global import and export trade volume. The turnover of China’s palm oil** is 10 times that of the Malaysian trading volume, but the price direction of palm oil** is still affected by Malaysian Malaysia. The exchange price has a great influence.
Some experts pointed out that China’s lack of research on the global commodity market and the failure to form a unified pricing mechanism are important factors restricting China’s position in global commodities. Therefore, people of insight are looking forward to the following: The country should use lead and coal as an opportunity to market and strive to seek pricing power on commodities. The industry has gradually formed a unified pricing mechanism in the domestic nickel, copper, rare earth, iron ore, coal, lead and zinc and other areas as a breakthrough.
How to grasp the pricing power of commodities must be focused on the “head†and “tail†of the industry chain. It should not focus only on one of the rings in the industry chain. It needs to integrate the entire value chain of commodities. In other words, seeking pricing rights requires looking for opportunities at the front and end of the industrial value chain. The role of China in the world economy is undergoing a profound transformation from the original passive processors to the active deployment of world resources. In this transitional process, China must first take the road of independent innovation in manufacturing, and can only pursue the road to pricing in the commodity sector.
New Arrangements for China's Commodities In recent years, China's commodity market has risen significantly, with four major characteristics as a whole: Domestic demand has driven the overall consumption to grow; production has been released in large quantities and the problem of overcapacity has been alleviated; material costs have driven and prices have oscillated upwards. Therefore, in the new year China's commodity market is expected to continue to show a warming trend, tight supply and demand relations, high prices fluctuating operation, and the basic characteristics of market finance further development.
To deal with these characteristics, the layout at the national level can be basically understood as: the upgrading and expansion of material reserves; financial market innovation and qualitative change to win the right to speak; and the state's means of regulating and controlling bulk commodities must also be replaced.
It is reported that at present, the National Reserve Bureau and other agencies are conducting investigations on various varieties of bulk commodities, and they are required to demonstrate whether there is a need to make adjustments to the existing reserves, or whether new reserve varieties should be added. The reserves of various species in China are generally lower than international practices, especially oil and metals. In the future, these species are more likely to increase their reserves.
Under the new situation, the financialization of China's commodity market will further develop. For example, the establishment of iron ore ** market is being concerned and discussed in many aspects. The financialization of the iron ore market is an inevitable trend. The relevant parties took advantage of the situation to actively organize the establishment of raw materials such as iron ore and rare earth metals to realize China's own commodity index, and to use the Chinese factors to positively influence the prices of bulk commodities such as iron ore to win the price discourse for the world's mining giants. , has a very important significance.
According to a research institution, China is learning from the US's means and capabilities in the commodity market, deploying energy and resources more efficiently, and using large-scale reserves to effectively handle and regulate materials. A person who has been in contact with the decision-makers for a long time pointed out that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, ** varieties will be listed on the market first, and the specific order will probably be lead, coke, and methanol, while crude oil will accelerate its pace. Policy makers began to use ** more to understand the market and take special measures to adjust in special circumstances.
Business is the key No matter what form it takes to participate in the international commodity trade, Chinese companies will be the main players in the competition, and the enterprise's risk control is the core issue.
Some analysts believe that the "bull market" of commodities will not continue for a long time and that there will be a "market inflection point" in the future. For example, the iron ore market will change from supply shortages to oversupply within a few years. The so-called “fengshui turns†and the price will fall accordingly.
There are also views that Chinese companies do not have to stick to the red line of arable land. When domestic food, oil, and other agricultural products are insufficient, they can purchase it from the international market. It is believed that after a certain period of time, there will be a large surplus of agricultural products in the world.
Recently, some scholars have suggested that three major factors may cause large fluctuations in commodity prices. First, China's high economic growth may touch the "high growth boundary." This danger does exist. Second, high oil prices will have an impact on the European and American economies. Third, the sharp rise in commodity prices will exacerbate serious inflation in emerging economies.** The collision of the above factors may cause the global economy to fall into recession again.
In fact, blindly believe that the "turnaround point of the market" is harmful. Looking at the large market trends, with the development of the world economy, the population continues to increase, the level of consumption increases, and resources are not renewable. Almost all resource-based commodities such as oil, coal, and ore will have their supply and demand relationships in the future. The tighter, even in cereals and other planting industries, there will be no real loose supply and demand due to limited land resources. "Resource bottlenecks" will be the biggest constraint to China's economic development.
Whether it can withstand this pressure for a long time will be a serious test for Chinese companies. We need to plan ahead and deal with it properly.
First, do everything possible to obtain resources. The essence of enterprise competition is the competition of resources. Therefore, it is recommended that enterprises go out, increase investment, do everything possible to obtain resource rights and interests, and improve logistics support. It is understood that China currently owns some equity products in the total amount of bulk commodities imported by China. According to data from Sinosteel Coordination Research, in 2010, China imported 60 million tons of iron ore in its iron ore mine, and in 2011 it is expected to increase another 30 million tons. It is expected that by 2013, it will be able to form an equity mine of approximately 150 million tons. There are also reports that China's overseas investment in iron ore lock resources has reached 18 billion t.
Second, strive to reduce unit consumption. Strategically eliminating the "bottleneck constraints" of China's economic resources, it is necessary to increase expenditure and reduce expenditure. To this end, we must speed up China's economic restructuring, achieve technological progress, and vigorously carry out energy-saving emission reduction, recycling, which greatly reduces the excessive dependence of economic growth on resource consumption.
Third, speed up the development of commodity markets. On this basis, an authoritative China's commodity price index will be formed as soon as possible, which will have an impact on Chinese prices. This is an important aspect of regaining the right to speak under the new situation. In this regard, financial institutions must have foresight and close cooperation, and the state should give preferential policies to support them. Production companies and traders must also actively participate. Of course, this is a relatively new thing after all. Some companies are not familiar with it. Therefore, it needs to be treated with caution.
In short, China has the largest market for commodity demand, and we should provide a natural advantage for the establishment of the most authoritative price index for the establishment of the world's largest commodity market. Therefore, we can believe that in the near future, China will be the “going tide†in the waves of international commodity markets.
Tuofang Metal Product Co., Ltd. , http://www.hsfieldfence.com