March domestic coal market sentiment index fell

According to statistics, in March, the national coal market sentiment index was -27.6, which was 8.3 points lower than that in February, reflecting that the coal market remained cold and intensified.

From the perspective of various basic indicators, under the influence of multiple factors, in the first quarter, the situation of domestic infrastructure construction and new real estate starts are not ideal, and the economic fundamentals are less than expected in terms of coal demand. At the same time, due to the fact that in March, the hydropower station is in a high-fat state, the hydropower generation volume has increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the thermal power generation volume is still growing at a low rate. In March, coal demand increased by 0.75% year-on-year, 2.8 percentage points lower than the average monthly rate in the previous two months. The increase was significantly lower than the normal level, and the coal demand deviation index fell by 4.5 points from February to -14.7.

In March, domestic coal production decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, but imports increased sharply, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. In the same month, the increase in coal supply was greater than the increase in consumption, and coal inventories continued to increase. As a result, the supply and demand balance index fell by 0.3 points compared to February, and fell to -13.2. Coal supply and demand were generally in a loose state. In March, the domestic coal market prices fell steadily, thermal coal prices generally fell by around 5 yuan per ton in late February, and individual varieties in local areas dropped by 20 yuan per ton. The coal price index in March was -11.8, down 4.5 points month-on-month.

From the perspective of economic fundamentals, since the beginning of April, the start-up of infrastructure projects in various regions has been accelerating, but due to the expected uncertainty in the housing market, new housing starts may still be in the doldrums, and the economy will basically face the demand for coal. Smaller. From the climatic point of view, according to reports from related departments, the arrival of water in April is good, and the hydropower output in Central China has increased significantly. The replacement of coal and electricity by hydropower will remain very obvious, and wind power will also enter a high-fat state. Changes in the power structure may affect the growth of coal demand to a certain extent. According to preliminary judgments, coal demand in April will still be less, and the coal demand disparity index will decline slightly.

From the supply side, local coal mines will resume production in April. It is understood that Shanxi Province will release 100 million tons of annual production capacity this year; at the same time, the overall supply of international coal market will exceed the demand, and coal imports will remain at a high level. It is predicted that the coal supply in April is more likely than demand, and the coal supply and demand balance index will continue to fall. The recent Bohai Rim thermal coal price index continued to show a slight decline. In early April, there was a new round of downward adjustment of domestic coking coal prices, and individual steel mills demanded that coal mines reduce coking coal prices.

International coal prices continue to decline. It is expected that the coal market price trend in the second half of April will be further weakened, but given that the current domestic coal price is close to the cost, there is limited room for decline and the forecasted price disparity index will fall slightly. Based on a comprehensive analysis, since the demand-biased index, supply-demand balance index, and price-biased index are all likely to fall in different degrees, it is expected that the coal market sentiment index will continue to decline in April.