OPEC-led production cuts may slow to offset the decline in Venezuela's production and the possible reduction in supply in Iran. European and American crude oil futures fell, with WTI falling the most in more than a month. On Thursday (May 24), the New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settlement price in July 2018 was $70.71 per barrel, down $1.13, or 1.6%, from the previous trading day, trading range of $70.52-72; London Intercontinental Brent crude oil futures settlement price in July 2018 was 78.79 US dollars per barrel, down 1.01 US dollars from the previous trading day, down 1.3%, trading range of 78.57-79.78 US dollars. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price premium for the same period of West Texas Light crude oil during the same period was $8.08 per barrel, which was $0.12 higher than Wednesday. SC crude oil closed at 480.2 yuan / barrel at night, down 2.8 yuan, down 0.58%. Earlier this week, the re-election of Maduro in the Venezuelan general election increased the possibility of further sanctions against Venezuela by the United States. China and the United States have stopped trade wars, world oil demand may increase, international oil prices are supported, and Brent crude oil futures once again broke through $80 a barrel. However, US crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, and the Brent crude oil and WTI spread widened to more than US$8 per barrel, the largest in three years. According to IEA data, OECD stocks are already below the OPEC production cut target, the five-year average. According to the US Energy Information Administration, US crude oil inventories are below the five-year average. This means that the oversupply of the world oil market has disappeared. As Venezuela’s crude oil production continues to decline, Iran has the potential to reduce supply due to US sanctions. Interfax quoted Russian Energy Minister Novak as saying that if OPEC and non-OPEC countries saw a balance in the oil market in June, production cuts The magnitude may be moderately “moderatedâ€. OPEC will hold a semi-annual oil minister policy meeting in Vienna on June 22. Reuters quoted OPEC and the oil industry as saying that OPEC may decide to increase production at the June meeting to fill the decline in supply from Iran and Venezuela and respond to US concerns about rising oil prices. Carsten Fritsch, strategist at Commerzbank, believes that rumors that OPEC may increase supply after the June meeting have prevented oil prices from rising, and oil prices of $80 a barrel are an obstacle to overcome. If the oil price is higher than 80 US dollars per barrel, the possibility of OPEC's action will further increase. Before the OPEC meeting, it was difficult for oil prices to continue at such a price. However, according to data provided by UBS, the oil price surge in the past year is the 11th increase in oil prices in the past 70 years. The bank analyst warned that oil prices may continue to rise for several reasons. OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing countries cut production according to the agreement, and solved the market surplus caused by excess oil inventories. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela have led to uncertainty about future oil supplies. Finally, despite the substantial increase in US production, it is difficult to keep up with the pace of demand growth. UBS believes that underinvestment in large oil projects will begin to affect supply next year. UBS believes that although the oil price increase this year is the largest in history, it is still smaller than the previous economic crisis. After inflation adjustment, global oil prices are still below the price of most of 2005-2015. Improved fuel efficiency also means that the world needs less oil to generate more unit economic benefits. UBS believes that another factor that inhibits oil price increases is that US production is growing substantially. Current US oil production already accounts for a large share of global oil production, which means that the world's largest economy can benefit from rising oil prices. Despite this, an oil price of $20 per barrel will not allow the United States to have more new capacity to go online. Analysts warn that the most important factor affecting oil prices in the next two years is not OPEC, Iran or Venezuela, but the form of the shipping revolution. The International Maritime Organization will implement a new emission standard on January 1, 2020 to curb marine pollution caused by ships around the world. Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report that with the new international shipping law reforming the type of fuel oil produced by refineries, the price of Brent crude oil, which is priced as a global benchmark in 2020, will rise to $90 a barrel. Morgan Stanley analysts expect the crude oil market to be in short supply, and inventory continues to fall, which may support oil prices. This standard of the International Maritime Organization is to promote clean energy and reduce sulfur emissions in shipping. Sulfur emissions are an integral part of acid rain, which can damage vegetation and wildlife and can also cause respiratory diseases. Therefore, the market expects that the high-sulfur crude oil market will have an oversupply, while the Middle East crude oil is mostly medium-quality high-sulfur crude oil, and Venezuela also produces a lot of heavy crude oil. In general, light, low-sulfur crude oil is mostly distributed on both sides of the Atlantic, such as shale oil in West Africa, the North Sea and the United States. The IMO rules will prohibit ships from using fuel oils containing more than 0.5% sulphur unless the ship is equipped with equipment to remove sulphur. The current rule is that the fuel oil sulfur content does not exceed 3.5%. At present, there are few ship investment equipment to remove sulfur emissions from burning fuel oil. On Thursday (May 24), Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 485 yuan per barrel in September, down 3.1 yuan, down 0.64%; settlement price was 483 yuan per barrel, down 5.1 yuan, down 0.99%; trading range 478.1-487.4 yuan. September crude oil futures settlement price is equivalent to about 75.69 US dollars per barrel. Shanghai crude oil futures traded 217,432 lots on the same day, equivalent to 21,732,000 barrels of transactions; the number of positions was 31,708 lots, a decrease of 536 lots. Among them, the main contract for delivery in September 2018 was 217,168 contracts, and the number of positions was 30414, a decrease of 542 contracts. US crude oil futures closed lower on Wednesday due to unexpected fall in US crude oil inventories. European and Asian crude oil futures fell on Thursday during the Asian trading session.
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