Shanghai Aluminum Futures Faces Short Choice to Lead International Futures Aluminum Market

?? Shanghai Aluminum yesterday, after two consecutive weeks of decline and tenacious return to the monthly line, the main contract al0506 positions increased by more than 1,000 hands. This is indeed very rare for Shanghai Aluminum, which is gradually getting rid of the negative effects such as the increase of 5% tariff. If we carry out some quantitative analysis on the solid and imaginary markets in the aluminum future market, we will have a clearer understanding of the current international aluminum market structure. The bears that dominate the LME market in the international aluminum market include exchange stocks and implicit stocks, which are traded for the purpose of final settlement; vacancies including positions and off-site funds indicate that investors are in a market or a commodity. The interest in participation is mainly speculation for the purpose of trading. Generally speaking, in a market structure, firm prices dominate the price trend is a bear market, the market outlook is conducive to short selling; virtual disk prices dominate the bull market, the market outlook is conducive to do more. The duration of the London Aluminium futures contract is more recent months plus two consecutive months. During this period, the positions will experience a gradual change from month to month and then gradually change to the next contract. The general rule of the futures market is that the open interest when the price rises is much higher than the open interest when the price falls, because at this time there is a large amount of capital inflow, and it can be said that the price rise is piled up with funds. When the trend is formed, the market is in a Masukura state (whether rising or falling); when the trend runs to the end, it is often accompanied by a large amount of lighten up. However, we find that the LME integrated aluminum comparison chart (Figure 1) shows that when the position is at a relatively high or relatively low price, the price has not been correspondingly driven, and even some stages of divergence, indicating that the bulls in the LME to the trend The influence is weak, or the willingness to make long-term funds is not strong. Let's look at the relationship between LME's overall aluminum inventory and prices (Figure 2). Generally speaking, prices are ahead of inventory because when there is an increase or decrease in inventory, there will always be well-informed people entering the market in advance. At this time, the market price will be It will be reflected, and when everyone sees the increase or decrease in inventory, this part of the population has long been involved, and the price will enter a new range. Therefore, when the inventory is low, it is not a time when the price is high. In the middle phase of the trend, the price is closely related to the inventory. However, when the inventory is at an extreme value, the impact on the price is not obvious, and it is at a turning point. Prices often reflect not just supply and demand but speculative factors in the market, just like the recent trend of crude oil. However, we found from the comparison chart of aluminum stocks and prices that there was no case where the transition stage was dominated by large funds. Instead, inventory had a continuous effect on prices, and this kind of inventory changes continued to suppress or raise prices. It shows that the international aluminum market is dominated by strong air. Some international mining companies, such as Swiss Glencore International, which controls the 27% of the US aluminum smelting industry, are the real protagonists in this market. From the perspective of the supply and demand of the international aluminum spot market, due to the progress of secondary production technology, it is expected that the global aluminum market surplus will continue this year. This will further strengthen the dominance of the short-term aluminum market. Shanghai aluminum broke out in silence? In the current international aluminum market structure, for the Shanghai aluminum market, on the one hand, more than half a year's decline has been adequately supported; on the other hand, the comprehensive international aluminum market long and short power contrast and the dollar into the With the interest rate hike cycle and other factors, LME aluminum has a very good chance of falling back. In this sensitive position, Shanghai Aluminum may not only suffer from an accelerated decline due to the LME, but also has a strong rebound demand due to low prices. As the so-called rising power is insufficient, the downside is limited. If lukewarm Shanghai aluminum does not break out in silence, it can only be recaptured in silence. The weapon of suppression by the airside lies in the fundamentals of excess domestic aluminum production capacity and macroeconomic control, but it will be extremely counterproductive. According to the current average price of electrolytic aluminum industry 0.35 yuan / degree, alumina price 4330 yuan / ton, other cost costs 2,000 yuan / ton, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum is 16,000 yuan / ton, has been close to the current aluminum price, some lack Enterprises with competitive capabilities will cut production or even go out of the game, so that the supply and demand relationship between the domestic aluminum market and the global aluminum market can be fundamentally improved. From such a perspective, the reintegration of the aluminum industry will create conditions for aluminum prices to bottom out. Therefore, the strong and weak transformation of the aluminum market is not impossible. In particular, if the post-market multi-party operations to buy aluminum to sell copper (information forums) at a relatively low aluminum price are bound to respond, it is also an easy task to turn the tide. From another perspective, for the electro-aluminum industry of “Power Tiger”, the average power consumption per ton of aluminum in China is 16,000 degrees, and the ton of aluminum power accounts for 38% of the cost of aluminum ingots. Therefore, aluminum is also an energy derivative in the end. . Since the 1990s, under the impetus of international speculative funds, the trend of international oil prices and aluminum prices has become increasingly relevant. From the record high of NYMEX crude oil recently, it is not difficult to see that under the circumstances that support the fundamental factors of the uptrend few, oil prices can still enter a “super bull market” (as described in the Goldman Sachs report), so it is hard to say that Shanghai aluminum market Will not be inspired by the price of oil, out of a wave of larger upswing. Source: China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.

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