After a lapse of four years, following the listing of Shanghai Zinc**, the Shanghai** Exchange will officially launch lead** transactions on March 24, 2011. At this point, the number of non-ferrous metals listed on the domestic market has increased to four. The listing of Shanghai Lead** and gradual smooth operation will undoubtedly provide more efficient tools for avoiding price risk for domestic upstream and downstream lead companies. This has 4.2 million tons of refined lead production in 2010, accounting for about 42% of the world's total production of refined lead; with 3.75 million tons of refined lead consumption, accounting for about 40% of the world's total consumption of refined lead - the Chinese lead industry, has great significance.
The mature trading and hedging functions of non-ferrous metals** in the domestic industry chain have provided a considerable amount of experience for Shanghai Lead** to better serve its industrial customers: traders who have already participated in relevant trades. For large-scale smelters, the Shanghai lead ** will receive their attention; and for the battery industry that does not have much experience, especially for the scattered and disparate battery industries, the launch of the Shanghai lead ** will Complementing the existing pricing system also puts higher requirements on the ability of the battery industry to adapt to prices. Therefore, timely and appropriate learning and participation in the operation of Shanghai lead and lead ** will increase the price competitiveness of the battery industry, which accounts for about 80% of domestic lead consumption. From a market perspective, the industry of the battery industry will be strengthened and concentrated. This is both an opportunity and a challenge.
First, the "big contract" Shanghai lead ** rules can be said, from the preparations for the beginning, the Shanghai lead ** in the contract design and the main rules of the perfect, all of them effectively serve the needs of industrial customers. In the important aspects such as risk control, spot physical delivery, and application for hedging positions, compared to the three varieties currently used in copper, aluminum and zinc, it is more complete and more detailed.
1. The contract design Shanghai Lead** became the first product to be listed on the “big contract†trade. The trade unit determined in the contract was 25t/hand. If Shanghai Metalnet’s March 18th 1# lead ingot, every t17 The calculation of the average price of 450 yuan, calculated on the basis of the minimum margin of 8% in the standard contract, requires a minimum of 34,900 yuan for participation in the Shanghai Lead and Beverages. The threshold for the current non-ferrous metals industry is even higher than Shanghai Copper. Regarding the "big contract" itself, although this may limit the liquidity of Shanghai lead products and limit the enthusiasm of speculative participation, the trading unit of 25t/hand is in line with that of the London Metal Exchange and can meet the needs of the industrial customers and reduce The impact of speculative funds on the ups and downs of short-term price increases.
At the grade level, Shanghai Lead** selected 1# lead ingots without replacements. The standard lead ingot meets the requirements of the national standard GB/T 469-2005 Pb99.994, in which the lead content is not less than 99.994%. The requirement that the purity of lead of LME is not lower than 99.97% is also higher than the product quality of domestic lead recycling industry. However, the selection of high-grade lead ingots will not greatly affect internal and external disk arbitrage transactions and hedging operations in the recycled lead industry. Most of the domestic spot quotes are based on 1# lead ingots. The main products of domestic large refineries are also 1# lead ingots, and the market supply and demand are abundant.
2. Risk control Shanghai Lead** continued the Shanghai** exchange risk control system, requiring clear requirements on margin collection, ups and downs.
With regard to margin, the standard of 8% is higher than the 5% that was set at the beginning of the listing of copper aluminum and zinc. In the lead-imulated trading conducted in the previous period and in the announcement of the official listing of lead**, the margin of Shanghai Lead** trading was tentatively set at 11% of the value of the contract, and the margin for the contract during the operational phase of the contract was set to 6 files. Similar to copper, the maximum trading margin ratio increased to 30% from the first two trading days of the last trading day.
The price of the daily limit is set at the same level as the other varieties in the risk control rule, and a continuous expansion boarding system of 5%, 7%, and 9% is performed, and the trading margin is appropriately increased. However, in the notice of the simulated trading and the official listing of lead**, the first price limit was tentatively set at 6%, and the daily limit on the date of listing on March 24 was tentatively set at 12%.
In respect of limit positions, ordinary customers who have not applied for hedging positions have a limit of 200 lots and 5 000 tons in January before the delivery month, and a limit of 60 lots and 1,500 tons in the delivery month. The limits of speculative positions held near the delivery are similar to those of Shanghai Zinc.
3, physical delivery link from the registered brand, registered warehouse, preservation, quality inspection, etc., the basic system of Shanghai lead ** more perfect.
At present, there are 14 registered lead ingots approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which can cover about 40% of domestic production of 99.994% of refined lead, and companies with registered brands are basically leading companies in the domestic lead and zinc industry. In the region, these 14 companies are located in Henan, 6 in Hunan, 3 in Hunan, 2 in Guangxi, and 1 in Yunnan, Anhui, and Shaanxi. As for the conditions for brand registration, the annual output is more than 50,000 tons, and the three-level production process is more than that. As a preliminary assessment standard, this will help promote the implementation of the national lead industry policy, promote industrial upgrading, and eliminate backward production capacity.
Registration warehouses for lead ingots are the most widely distributed in the region. At present, 10 warehouse companies are approved. The specific warehouses are located in five locations in Shanghai, two in Zhejiang, two in Guangdong, three in Tianjin, and one in Jiangsu. Among them, considering tight production and sales, the Tianjin warehouse has a discount of 80 yuan/t.
In the aspect of quality inspection for incoming goods, the requirements for lead varieties are extremely high and very fine. It is required that the lead ingots delivered must be stored in warehouses, and the rust on the packaging and the white rust inspection on the surface of lead ingots should be checked when entering the warehouse. In the delivery practice, it is clearly emphasized that lead ingots with rust on the packaging tape (marked with rust on the surface of lead ingots) must not be used to make warehouse receipts; for lead ingots with white rust on the surface, warehouse receipts should be made at t120 per piece of quality and water.
Compared with other non-ferrous metals, the inspection link of lead in delivery has been paid attention to, and the cost of delivery has been warehouse rent of 0.7 yuan/t/day, which has been improved in and out of the warehouse, and the way in which containers are delivered is increased. Delivery fees are set at 2 yuan/t.
4. The application for hedging positions of enterprises was relaxed. The application rules for hedging positions that are different from the three varieties of copper, aluminum and zinc were applied to Shanghai Lead **. They were divided into hedging positions in general months and hedging positions in approaching delivery months. If you apply for a general-month hedging position, the amount of information required will be significantly reduced compared to the past. However, if you apply for a hedging position close to the delivery month, you need to provide spot-based business operations on the basis of general hedging positions. Contract information. Under the premise of controllable risk, for general month contracts, the Exchange will give position approvals as far as possible to meet the needs of customers in production and operations, and the exchanges in the near future will strengthen the review of hedging positions. The position of the hedged position that is applied for is not affected by the position restriction. This part of the position is traded with “T+1â€. At the same time, an additional application can be made for the hedge position in a given month during the allowable period.
At present, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has begun to accept applications for hedging positions, companies can choose to apply for general hedging positions in the first month, then apply for hedging positions approaching the delivery month, or both.
Second, the preliminary listing of Shanghai lead deliberation March 24th Shanghai Stock Exchange will be listed at the same time 1109 ~ 1203 contract, the market price of listed on the exchange and the initial listing of Shanghai lead price trend, the size of the largest concern.
The exchange's listing price will be announced on March 23. From the March 17th Shanghai Exchange Exchange's contract price of 17,800 yuan/t, the exchange will refer to the spot price trend in the days before the listing, and With proper consideration of the forward contract premium to determine the listing price, the median price of 1# lead ingots of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. was RMB 17,200/t on March 14.
The listing price will mainly reflect the market's view on the ups and downs of forward prices. Take Shanghai zinc ** as an example. On March 26, 2007, the listed price of the 0707~0803 contract determined in the previous period was 28,510 yuan/t, while the average price of 0# zinc spot of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals was 28,850 yuan/t in the same period. The confirmed future month listing price is actually lower than the spot price at the time of listing. This is mainly due to the market's view on the future zinc price is mainly oscillating down, and the supply and demand surplus is gradually increasing.
Judging from the current lead fundamentals, the trend of lead prices both inside and outside of 2011 will continue to fluctuate widely in the environment in which demand and supply conditions are basically the same as last year. The listed prices listed on the listed listing prices and simulation transactions are slightly lower than the spot prices. There is a high possibility of rising water.
Third, Shanghai lead ** market changes and opportunities after listing 1. Complementing existing pricing mechanisms to improve the ability of companies to adapt to prices Whether imported lead concentrates or lead concentrates, the basis of their trade premiums or processing fees is based on the March lead price of the London Metal Exchange, while domestic upstream and downstream The price system for lead trade is still monotonous. The main reference is the spot price collected by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals (SMM). Domestically, there is no ** product set up to circumvent the rise or fall in lead price.
After Shanghai Lead ** is listed and runs smoothly, it will gradually improve the combined price system of the spot market. The pricing of lead ingots will be the same as that before and after the zinc listing, and will gradually be unified with the price of lead** in the Shanghai Exchange Exchange. Due to zinc's experience, this process may not be too long. By then, with the ** market, companies will be more focused on the use of Shanghai ** quotations to determine the production and sales prices, the implementation of production and marketing plans. Although many lead-related companies have participated in the LME's external disk protection, due to fluctuations in lead prices both inside and outside, and there are many risks, the effect of hedging is quite limited. The Shanghai lead **, after listing, will converge with the domestic spot price trend and fundamentally increase the effect of hedging.
We believe that the introduction of the Shanghai Lead ** Preservation Tool will have the greatest impact on the currently dispersive battery industry in the major terminal sectors, which may accelerate the industry reshuffling and strengthen industry consolidation. It is understood that there are 1 806 related companies in the country, and the normal operation of environmental protection requirements may be around 1 000. The production of these small and medium-sized storage battery enterprises is mainly based on "distribution by sales," and the competitive pressure is high. At present, the pricing of battery companies is mainly based on the periodic price adjustments of cumulative price increases, and supplemental provisions are accompanied by rising prices of raw materials. After the stable operation of Shanghai Lead **, the market will surely make higher demands on battery companies' ability to deal with raw material prices. Shanghai Lead ** itself also provides tools for the mid-to-downstream lead-related companies to lock in purchase costs. It can be predicted that whoever has higher price adaptability will be able to gain greater market share and be recognized by the market. Therefore, the battery industry needs timely and appropriate participation in the ** market hedging transactions to enhance competitiveness.
2. It is beneficial to lock the spread of the arbitrage between the inner and outer discs, and promote the lead spot trade. After the listing of the Shanghai lead **, due to favorable changes in the import price difference between the inner and outer discs, it is possible to engage in arbitrage trading based on spot trading, and at the same time on the ** disk, through Buying abroad and selling domestic "lock the favorable spread. As there is no domestic lead**, the spot lead price fluctuates rather slowly. This arbitrage opportunity is not much, and once such an opportunity arises, due to the lack of tools for internal value protection, it is impossible to promptly lock in favorable spreads through internal and external ** markets, making enterprises The interest in cross-market arbitrage between lead is quite low. Compared with lead, zinc's cross-market transactions attracted more funds and formed a relatively fixed rate of return. With the introduction of lead**, the volatility of lead prices will become more positive and the magnitude will be even greater. The opportunities for lead arbitrage inside and outside the country are likely to increase. Trading companies are most concerned about such opportunities.
3. There may be Shanghai lead arbitrage opportunities listed on the market, Shanghai Lead 1109-1203 contract has a common listing price, and due to the market just launched, the spread of forward contracts is difficult to open, the market price comparison of the forward price is relatively vague, Between these forward contracts, by calculating the monthly holding costs, there may be theoretical opportunities for arbitrage between months. However, the market is immature and the transaction is low. Such opportunities are not recommended for participation.
The market will focus on the opportunities for arbitrage between the Shanghai Lead 1109 contract and lead spot. Through the calculation of warehousing costs, delivery costs, and capital occupancy costs, the 1109 contract will need to have a spot price of 1 000 yuan/t at least in late March. The above price difference can form a certain risk-free period of arbitrage opportunities. According to Shanghai Lead's simulation trading, as the 1109 contract hit a high of 20 200 yuan/t on March 18, the spot average price was only 17 450 yuan/t, and there was an opportunity for arbitrage. However, the cumulative increase in the number of simulation transactions over the past few days is quite an exaggeration, which is even greater than the increase in LME lead prices. The significance of the reference is also not significant.
Since the spread of spreads is real-time, the tracking of the current price spread will be dynamic and normal. It is recommended that lead-related companies properly track such opportunities. Relatively speaking, opportunities for arbitrage during the initial period of listing are prone to occur.
4. The news that lead ** changes in the price of lead and zinc price changes has led to a certain boost in lead prices. Changes in lead-zinc spreads, or whether there are arbitrage opportunities in lead-zinc spreads, have also received attention. Through fundamental analysis and quantitative analysis, we believe that the theoretical basis for cross-variety arbitrage between lead and zinc is not solid. After 2009, the LME lead-zinc spread is relatively stable, but the data is relatively short, and it is also unable to provide a strict quantitative basis.
Domestically, due to the lack of lead**, the spot price difference between lead and zinc is volatile. At present, in the upward trend, the price of zinc is greater than that of lead, which is often higher than the price of lead. Once the market turns into a downward trend, the price of zinc will fall more than that of lead, and the positive price difference between “zinc price and lead price†may be rapid. Shrinking, even as the price of zinc slips, it turns negative. The listing of lead** will bring about a similar level of market liquidity and capital attention. The performance of lead spot prices will also become more sensitive and volatile due to the listing of the two brands. The volatility of the spread may be based primarily on convergence and stability. As for the analysis of spreads, we are more concerned about the possible guidelines for unilateral lead and zinc prices, or the changes in the price of lead and zinc at home and abroad. At present, the price of lead in LME is higher than that of zinc, while domestic zinc prices are slightly higher than lead prices. With the listing of Shanghai lead, the spot price of lead may be closer to the spot price of zinc. However, it is difficult for domestic lead prices to exceed the zinc price continuously. Determined, the most fundamental or depends on their respective fundamental changes.
From the cost point of view, the domestic zinc price is high because the processing cost and energy cost of refined zinc are higher than that of refined lead. The reason why the price of lead in the outer disk is high is that China imposes 10% export tariff on lead and the height of foreign lead-related companies is high. Pay attention to environmental protection costs. Supply and demand point of view, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics data show that in 2010 the world's refined lead supply shortage of 18,000 t; over the same period over 402,000 tons of refined zinc supply, the excess situation has actually continued to increase compared to 2009; expected in 2011, lead and zinc are relatively speaking The market is more optimistic about the supply and demand situation of lead. From these considerations, domestic lead prices are likely to exceed zinc prices in stages, and the price spreads gradually converge.
The mature trading and hedging functions of non-ferrous metals** in the domestic industry chain have provided a considerable amount of experience for Shanghai Lead** to better serve its industrial customers: traders who have already participated in relevant trades. For large-scale smelters, the Shanghai lead ** will receive their attention; and for the battery industry that does not have much experience, especially for the scattered and disparate battery industries, the launch of the Shanghai lead ** will Complementing the existing pricing system also puts higher requirements on the ability of the battery industry to adapt to prices. Therefore, timely and appropriate learning and participation in the operation of Shanghai lead and lead ** will increase the price competitiveness of the battery industry, which accounts for about 80% of domestic lead consumption. From a market perspective, the industry of the battery industry will be strengthened and concentrated. This is both an opportunity and a challenge.
First, the "big contract" Shanghai lead ** rules can be said, from the preparations for the beginning, the Shanghai lead ** in the contract design and the main rules of the perfect, all of them effectively serve the needs of industrial customers. In the important aspects such as risk control, spot physical delivery, and application for hedging positions, compared to the three varieties currently used in copper, aluminum and zinc, it is more complete and more detailed.
1. The contract design Shanghai Lead** became the first product to be listed on the “big contract†trade. The trade unit determined in the contract was 25t/hand. If Shanghai Metalnet’s March 18th 1# lead ingot, every t17 The calculation of the average price of 450 yuan, calculated on the basis of the minimum margin of 8% in the standard contract, requires a minimum of 34,900 yuan for participation in the Shanghai Lead and Beverages. The threshold for the current non-ferrous metals industry is even higher than Shanghai Copper. Regarding the "big contract" itself, although this may limit the liquidity of Shanghai lead products and limit the enthusiasm of speculative participation, the trading unit of 25t/hand is in line with that of the London Metal Exchange and can meet the needs of the industrial customers and reduce The impact of speculative funds on the ups and downs of short-term price increases.
At the grade level, Shanghai Lead** selected 1# lead ingots without replacements. The standard lead ingot meets the requirements of the national standard GB/T 469-2005 Pb99.994, in which the lead content is not less than 99.994%. The requirement that the purity of lead of LME is not lower than 99.97% is also higher than the product quality of domestic lead recycling industry. However, the selection of high-grade lead ingots will not greatly affect internal and external disk arbitrage transactions and hedging operations in the recycled lead industry. Most of the domestic spot quotes are based on 1# lead ingots. The main products of domestic large refineries are also 1# lead ingots, and the market supply and demand are abundant.
2. Risk control Shanghai Lead** continued the Shanghai** exchange risk control system, requiring clear requirements on margin collection, ups and downs.
With regard to margin, the standard of 8% is higher than the 5% that was set at the beginning of the listing of copper aluminum and zinc. In the lead-imulated trading conducted in the previous period and in the announcement of the official listing of lead**, the margin of Shanghai Lead** trading was tentatively set at 11% of the value of the contract, and the margin for the contract during the operational phase of the contract was set to 6 files. Similar to copper, the maximum trading margin ratio increased to 30% from the first two trading days of the last trading day.
The price of the daily limit is set at the same level as the other varieties in the risk control rule, and a continuous expansion boarding system of 5%, 7%, and 9% is performed, and the trading margin is appropriately increased. However, in the notice of the simulated trading and the official listing of lead**, the first price limit was tentatively set at 6%, and the daily limit on the date of listing on March 24 was tentatively set at 12%.
In respect of limit positions, ordinary customers who have not applied for hedging positions have a limit of 200 lots and 5 000 tons in January before the delivery month, and a limit of 60 lots and 1,500 tons in the delivery month. The limits of speculative positions held near the delivery are similar to those of Shanghai Zinc.
3, physical delivery link from the registered brand, registered warehouse, preservation, quality inspection, etc., the basic system of Shanghai lead ** more perfect.
At present, there are 14 registered lead ingots approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which can cover about 40% of domestic production of 99.994% of refined lead, and companies with registered brands are basically leading companies in the domestic lead and zinc industry. In the region, these 14 companies are located in Henan, 6 in Hunan, 3 in Hunan, 2 in Guangxi, and 1 in Yunnan, Anhui, and Shaanxi. As for the conditions for brand registration, the annual output is more than 50,000 tons, and the three-level production process is more than that. As a preliminary assessment standard, this will help promote the implementation of the national lead industry policy, promote industrial upgrading, and eliminate backward production capacity.
Registration warehouses for lead ingots are the most widely distributed in the region. At present, 10 warehouse companies are approved. The specific warehouses are located in five locations in Shanghai, two in Zhejiang, two in Guangdong, three in Tianjin, and one in Jiangsu. Among them, considering tight production and sales, the Tianjin warehouse has a discount of 80 yuan/t.
In the aspect of quality inspection for incoming goods, the requirements for lead varieties are extremely high and very fine. It is required that the lead ingots delivered must be stored in warehouses, and the rust on the packaging and the white rust inspection on the surface of lead ingots should be checked when entering the warehouse. In the delivery practice, it is clearly emphasized that lead ingots with rust on the packaging tape (marked with rust on the surface of lead ingots) must not be used to make warehouse receipts; for lead ingots with white rust on the surface, warehouse receipts should be made at t120 per piece of quality and water.
Compared with other non-ferrous metals, the inspection link of lead in delivery has been paid attention to, and the cost of delivery has been warehouse rent of 0.7 yuan/t/day, which has been improved in and out of the warehouse, and the way in which containers are delivered is increased. Delivery fees are set at 2 yuan/t.
4. The application for hedging positions of enterprises was relaxed. The application rules for hedging positions that are different from the three varieties of copper, aluminum and zinc were applied to Shanghai Lead **. They were divided into hedging positions in general months and hedging positions in approaching delivery months. If you apply for a general-month hedging position, the amount of information required will be significantly reduced compared to the past. However, if you apply for a hedging position close to the delivery month, you need to provide spot-based business operations on the basis of general hedging positions. Contract information. Under the premise of controllable risk, for general month contracts, the Exchange will give position approvals as far as possible to meet the needs of customers in production and operations, and the exchanges in the near future will strengthen the review of hedging positions. The position of the hedged position that is applied for is not affected by the position restriction. This part of the position is traded with “T+1â€. At the same time, an additional application can be made for the hedge position in a given month during the allowable period.
At present, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has begun to accept applications for hedging positions, companies can choose to apply for general hedging positions in the first month, then apply for hedging positions approaching the delivery month, or both.
Second, the preliminary listing of Shanghai lead deliberation March 24th Shanghai Stock Exchange will be listed at the same time 1109 ~ 1203 contract, the market price of listed on the exchange and the initial listing of Shanghai lead price trend, the size of the largest concern.
The exchange's listing price will be announced on March 23. From the March 17th Shanghai Exchange Exchange's contract price of 17,800 yuan/t, the exchange will refer to the spot price trend in the days before the listing, and With proper consideration of the forward contract premium to determine the listing price, the median price of 1# lead ingots of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. was RMB 17,200/t on March 14.
The listing price will mainly reflect the market's view on the ups and downs of forward prices. Take Shanghai zinc ** as an example. On March 26, 2007, the listed price of the 0707~0803 contract determined in the previous period was 28,510 yuan/t, while the average price of 0# zinc spot of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals was 28,850 yuan/t in the same period. The confirmed future month listing price is actually lower than the spot price at the time of listing. This is mainly due to the market's view on the future zinc price is mainly oscillating down, and the supply and demand surplus is gradually increasing.
Judging from the current lead fundamentals, the trend of lead prices both inside and outside of 2011 will continue to fluctuate widely in the environment in which demand and supply conditions are basically the same as last year. The listed prices listed on the listed listing prices and simulation transactions are slightly lower than the spot prices. There is a high possibility of rising water.
Third, Shanghai lead ** market changes and opportunities after listing 1. Complementing existing pricing mechanisms to improve the ability of companies to adapt to prices Whether imported lead concentrates or lead concentrates, the basis of their trade premiums or processing fees is based on the March lead price of the London Metal Exchange, while domestic upstream and downstream The price system for lead trade is still monotonous. The main reference is the spot price collected by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals (SMM). Domestically, there is no ** product set up to circumvent the rise or fall in lead price.
After Shanghai Lead ** is listed and runs smoothly, it will gradually improve the combined price system of the spot market. The pricing of lead ingots will be the same as that before and after the zinc listing, and will gradually be unified with the price of lead** in the Shanghai Exchange Exchange. Due to zinc's experience, this process may not be too long. By then, with the ** market, companies will be more focused on the use of Shanghai ** quotations to determine the production and sales prices, the implementation of production and marketing plans. Although many lead-related companies have participated in the LME's external disk protection, due to fluctuations in lead prices both inside and outside, and there are many risks, the effect of hedging is quite limited. The Shanghai lead **, after listing, will converge with the domestic spot price trend and fundamentally increase the effect of hedging.
We believe that the introduction of the Shanghai Lead ** Preservation Tool will have the greatest impact on the currently dispersive battery industry in the major terminal sectors, which may accelerate the industry reshuffling and strengthen industry consolidation. It is understood that there are 1 806 related companies in the country, and the normal operation of environmental protection requirements may be around 1 000. The production of these small and medium-sized storage battery enterprises is mainly based on "distribution by sales," and the competitive pressure is high. At present, the pricing of battery companies is mainly based on the periodic price adjustments of cumulative price increases, and supplemental provisions are accompanied by rising prices of raw materials. After the stable operation of Shanghai Lead **, the market will surely make higher demands on battery companies' ability to deal with raw material prices. Shanghai Lead ** itself also provides tools for the mid-to-downstream lead-related companies to lock in purchase costs. It can be predicted that whoever has higher price adaptability will be able to gain greater market share and be recognized by the market. Therefore, the battery industry needs timely and appropriate participation in the ** market hedging transactions to enhance competitiveness.
2. It is beneficial to lock the spread of the arbitrage between the inner and outer discs, and promote the lead spot trade. After the listing of the Shanghai lead **, due to favorable changes in the import price difference between the inner and outer discs, it is possible to engage in arbitrage trading based on spot trading, and at the same time on the ** disk, through Buying abroad and selling domestic "lock the favorable spread. As there is no domestic lead**, the spot lead price fluctuates rather slowly. This arbitrage opportunity is not much, and once such an opportunity arises, due to the lack of tools for internal value protection, it is impossible to promptly lock in favorable spreads through internal and external ** markets, making enterprises The interest in cross-market arbitrage between lead is quite low. Compared with lead, zinc's cross-market transactions attracted more funds and formed a relatively fixed rate of return. With the introduction of lead**, the volatility of lead prices will become more positive and the magnitude will be even greater. The opportunities for lead arbitrage inside and outside the country are likely to increase. Trading companies are most concerned about such opportunities.
3. There may be Shanghai lead arbitrage opportunities listed on the market, Shanghai Lead 1109-1203 contract has a common listing price, and due to the market just launched, the spread of forward contracts is difficult to open, the market price comparison of the forward price is relatively vague, Between these forward contracts, by calculating the monthly holding costs, there may be theoretical opportunities for arbitrage between months. However, the market is immature and the transaction is low. Such opportunities are not recommended for participation.
The market will focus on the opportunities for arbitrage between the Shanghai Lead 1109 contract and lead spot. Through the calculation of warehousing costs, delivery costs, and capital occupancy costs, the 1109 contract will need to have a spot price of 1 000 yuan/t at least in late March. The above price difference can form a certain risk-free period of arbitrage opportunities. According to Shanghai Lead's simulation trading, as the 1109 contract hit a high of 20 200 yuan/t on March 18, the spot average price was only 17 450 yuan/t, and there was an opportunity for arbitrage. However, the cumulative increase in the number of simulation transactions over the past few days is quite an exaggeration, which is even greater than the increase in LME lead prices. The significance of the reference is also not significant.
Since the spread of spreads is real-time, the tracking of the current price spread will be dynamic and normal. It is recommended that lead-related companies properly track such opportunities. Relatively speaking, opportunities for arbitrage during the initial period of listing are prone to occur.
4. The news that lead ** changes in the price of lead and zinc price changes has led to a certain boost in lead prices. Changes in lead-zinc spreads, or whether there are arbitrage opportunities in lead-zinc spreads, have also received attention. Through fundamental analysis and quantitative analysis, we believe that the theoretical basis for cross-variety arbitrage between lead and zinc is not solid. After 2009, the LME lead-zinc spread is relatively stable, but the data is relatively short, and it is also unable to provide a strict quantitative basis.
Domestically, due to the lack of lead**, the spot price difference between lead and zinc is volatile. At present, in the upward trend, the price of zinc is greater than that of lead, which is often higher than the price of lead. Once the market turns into a downward trend, the price of zinc will fall more than that of lead, and the positive price difference between “zinc price and lead price†may be rapid. Shrinking, even as the price of zinc slips, it turns negative. The listing of lead** will bring about a similar level of market liquidity and capital attention. The performance of lead spot prices will also become more sensitive and volatile due to the listing of the two brands. The volatility of the spread may be based primarily on convergence and stability. As for the analysis of spreads, we are more concerned about the possible guidelines for unilateral lead and zinc prices, or the changes in the price of lead and zinc at home and abroad. At present, the price of lead in LME is higher than that of zinc, while domestic zinc prices are slightly higher than lead prices. With the listing of Shanghai lead, the spot price of lead may be closer to the spot price of zinc. However, it is difficult for domestic lead prices to exceed the zinc price continuously. Determined, the most fundamental or depends on their respective fundamental changes.
From the cost point of view, the domestic zinc price is high because the processing cost and energy cost of refined zinc are higher than that of refined lead. The reason why the price of lead in the outer disk is high is that China imposes 10% export tariff on lead and the height of foreign lead-related companies is high. Pay attention to environmental protection costs. Supply and demand point of view, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics data show that in 2010 the world's refined lead supply shortage of 18,000 t; over the same period over 402,000 tons of refined zinc supply, the excess situation has actually continued to increase compared to 2009; expected in 2011, lead and zinc are relatively speaking The market is more optimistic about the supply and demand situation of lead. From these considerations, domestic lead prices are likely to exceed zinc prices in stages, and the price spreads gradually converge.
Tuofang Metal Product Co., Ltd. , http://www.hsfieldfence.com