The coal price increase momentum weakened, the NDRC urgently checked the coal contract

At the beginning of April, the price of coal in Qinhuangdao Port, the national wind market indicator, rose by RMB 10/ton from the end of March. When the coal price is likely to have an inflection point, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on April 2, which will carry out special inspections on the price of coal, focusing on the investigation of coal enterprises' price increases and collusion price increases.   The rise in coal prices has come suddenly, and the NDRC’s urgent investigation of the message has come more quickly. In the context of anti-inflation, coal prices are likely to remain stable. Daqin line maintenance and boosting coal prices actually, the reporter learned that under the premise of expected demand is booming, coastal coal prices have begun to rise at the end of March, and industry analysts expect that the coal industry fundamentals "turning point" Will arrive. From April 1st, the Daqin Railway, the main channel for coal transportation, began a one-month overhaul, resulting in a short-term tight supply of coal, which further exacerbated the expectation of rising coal prices. This has become one of the reasons why the prices of various coal types in Qinhuangdao Port have increased by RMB 10/ton. The reporter learned from the coal resource network that as of April 2, Qinhuangdao Port 6000 Daka Datong Excellent Mix, 5500 Dakar Shanxi Excellent Mix, 5000 Grand Card Shanxi Big Mix, 4500 Full Card Common Blended Coal and 4000 Large Card Common Blended Coal Minimum The closing price is 835 yuan / ton, 780 yuan / ton, 685 yuan / ton, 590 yuan / ton and 495 yuan / ton. On March 28, the minimum closing prices of the above coal types were 825 yuan / ton, 770 yuan / ton, 670 yuan / ton, 585 yuan / ton and 485 yuan / ton. Compared with the two, the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port is rising. “As the main artery of coal transportation, the Daqin line will have an effective supply to the coal market, especially to the arrival of the northern coal port. Therefore, it is often carried out in the off-season,” a coal expert told reporters. It is understood that the maintenance work of the Daqin Railway was originally scheduled to begin on March 26, but in order to ensure the stability of the first quarter traffic, it will be adjusted to April 1. According to Qinhuangdao Coal Network Monitoring, on the 1st, the coal railway of Qinhuangdao Port was transferred to 550,000 tons, down 23% from the previous day. The three major coal transit ports in the north, including Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port, have reduced their total import volume by nearly 300,000 tons from the previous day. As coal conversions decrease, coal inventories at major ports continue to decline. According to the latest data from the Coal Resources Network, as of the 4th, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port was 7.0796 million tons, down nearly 3% on a week-on-week basis. The coal price increase momentum is suppressed. The market pressure of rising coal prices in the future remains the same, especially the pressure on foreign input-type energy prices is rising, which may be one of the reasons for the NDRC's urgent publication. The reporter noted that there are foreign media reports that Xstrata Mining Group and Japan Electric Power Company have signed an annual contract. The former will supply thermal coal for thermal power generation at a price of US$130 per ton, compared with 98 per ton in 2010-2011. The contract price of the dollar has increased by 32.6%. The contract is said to have broken the 2008-2009 record of $125, which is higher than market expectations and stimulates the Asian energy market. In this regard, industry analysts have also pointed out that affected by the Middle East chaos and the Australian floods, there will be no significant decline in international oil prices and coal prices in the next quarter. In addition, the summer electricity consumption season has not arrived, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction demand for coal has not yet started, and so on. The coal price has risen unexpectedly. However, on April 2, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Emergency Pass on Effectively Guaranteeing the Stabilization of Coal Prices for Power Coal Supply", requiring all localities to take effective measures to ensure the supply of coal and stabilize the price of coal. The notice required that special inspections be carried out on the price of coal, focusing on the investigation of coal companies' price increases and collusion price increases, which undoubtedly brought a "tightening spell" to the entire coal market. What is intriguing is that at the end of March, the National Development and Reform Commission's analysis report on the coal industry in January-February predicted that “the coal market will still be in a stable state in the coming period. However, due to some uncertain factors, local areas are still possible. There is an imbalance between supply and demand.” After three days, the NDRC issued a document to check coal prices. This is not so much the NDRC’s concern about coal prices, but rather its unusual sensitivity to inflation. From this point of view, in the context of anti-inflation, if coal prices want to usher in the "inflection point" rise, I am afraid it is difficult to pass.

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