The seasonal characteristics of domestic coal market will become increasingly blurred

Affected by the resource endowment of “rich coal, lack of oil and less gas”, the proportion of coal-fired power generation in China's total power supply has been as high as 80% for a long time, while most of China has a temperate climate, and the four seasons have changed significantly. There are two obvious peaks of electricity consumption and coal use in winter and summer. In previous years, along with the ups and downs of electricity consumption and coal consumption, China's coal market, especially the thermal coal market, also showed obvious seasonal characteristics. During the peak period of coal use in winter, the price of coal tends to rise to varying degrees. After the winter, with the reduction of heating power and coal consumption, coal prices will fall seasonally; when summer comes, cool down and use electricity. The increase will also lead to a certain increase in coal prices; with the summer, the decline in electricity consumption will make coal prices weaker.
Under various efforts, the seasonal characteristics of the coal market in the past two years are gradually weakening. The author predicts that the seasonal characteristics of the coal market during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will be further blurred. The main reasons are as follows:
First, coal-based enterprises are increasingly aware of the role of rational use of market mechanisms, and continue to increase off-season procurement, and appropriately reduce peak season procurement. In 2010, the domestic thermal coal market is not weak in the off-season and the peak season is not prosperous. Many people should remember it. The reason why the peak season is not prosperous is that the coal enterprises have started the procurement of coal in the peak season in advance, and increased the off-season coal reserves. .
Second, governments at all levels should further strengthen the regulation and management of the coal market, such as the construction of coal reserve bases. Faced with the reality that the focus of coal production is moving westward, the central and eastern provinces have proposed to build local coal reserve bases. The construction of many coal reserve bases will play the role of reservoirs in the future to stabilize the seasonal fluctuations in the coal market.
Third, with the steady development of large-scale coal base construction, the concentration of coal industry will continue to increase, and the market control of coal enterprises will be further enhanced. With the steady development of large-scale coal base construction and coal resource integration, large-scale and extra-large coal enterprises of 100 million tons and 50 million tons have emerged in an endless stream, and the proportion of large coal enterprise group market has continuously increased. At present, China's large-scale coal enterprise group of more than 100 million tons has Shenhua Group, China Coal Group, Tongmei Group, Shanxi Coking Coal Group and many others. In addition, according to the original plan, after the integration of coal resources in Shanxi and Henan, the coal production of large coal enterprises will account for more than 75%, and market control will be significantly enhanced. With the increase of market share and the enhancement of control, large enterprises will better arrange production according to market demand and strive to avoid large fluctuations in the market.

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