On the five trading days of this week, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar fell in three trading days, rising in two trading days, up 257 basis points. On Monday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose slightly by 30 basis points on the basis of 6.6759 on Friday. The subsequent three trading days continued to fall by 257 basis points. On Friday, it rebounded slightly by 78 basis points to 6.6908.
A new wave of gains in the US dollar is the main reason for the continuous decline in the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar this week. Although the market is still expecting the Fed to launch a new round of quantitative easing measures, a series of favorable data released recently shows that the US economy is not as weak as it was a while ago, and other risk-money countries have also emerged in their own economies. More or less problems, so that the dollar index has been supported.
Some market traders believe that China's current exchange rate policy is relatively calm. The market closely monitors the impact of the US mid-term elections and the Fed's quantitative easing on overseas US dollars, and its trend may influence the recent RMB exchange rate.
On Thursday, as the investors reconsidered the next week's Fed policy meeting will announce the scale of a new round of monetary stimulus measures, the New York dollar market fell. On Friday, the Tokyo dollar market rose across the board, pushing the dollar against the yen to a 15-year low.
On Friday, the United States announced that the third quarter GDP annualized rate rose by 2%, in line with previous expectations. The US dollar index fell rapidly after the data was released. Analysts said that the data made the Fed's implementation of quantitative easing policy next week to cross the last resistance, and the US dollar index thus expanded the decline.
Bank of China analysts said that the Fed will announce the results of the monetary policy meeting next week. If the scale of the quantitative easing policy is clear, the direction of the US dollar index is expected to be determined. In the medium term, as long as the market does not change the Fed's policy of further quantitative easing, the mid-week weak pattern is difficult to change, and the recent oscillation is only a short-term behavior.
In the long-term market, on the evening of October 29, the overseas non-deliverable market for the overseas market to measure the appreciation of the renminbi compared with the one-year price of the US dollar against the RMB, compared with the spot exchange rate, shows that the market believes that the appreciation of the renminbi after one year is About 2%, the appreciation is expected to increase slightly.
This week, the renminbi still showed a small volatility against other major currencies. Data released on Tuesday showed that the UK's third-quarter GDP rose 0.8% from the previous quarter and 2.8% from the same period last year. Affected by good news, the pound was clearly stronger, and the central parity of the RMB against the British pound showed a downward trend, which gradually oscillated from 10.4775 on Monday to 10.6662. In addition, affected by the full rise of the yen, the central parity of the RMB against the Japanese yen this week also showed a slight decline.
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