A report released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently predicted that world oil demand growth will reach 1.2 million barrels per day in 2011, and the overall demand level of the international oil market is expected to return to the level before the international financial crisis.
The report estimates that the average demand for OPEC crude oil in the international oil market in 2011 was 29.2 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day compared with 2010. This means that the demand for OPEC crude oil in the international oil market will increase for the first time next year after falling for three consecutive years. In addition, output growth for non-OPEC oil-producing countries is expected to reach 400,000 barrels per day next year, and OPEC’s liquefied natural gas production will increase by approximately 500,000 cubic meters per day. The report believes that taking into account the fact that the international oil market's high inventory, remaining production capacity, and sufficient refining capacity will continue, the international oil market will still have sufficient buffer in 2010 to cope with the sudden rise in demand.
Driven by government-led economic stimulus policies, the global economy experienced a clear recovery in 2010, and OPEC’s expectations of global economic growth have also been increased from the initial 2.4% to 4.3%. However, with the gradual reduction of economic stimulus policies in OECD countries and regions and the fact that major emerging economies have begun to curb economic growth, OPEC expects world economic growth to slow to 3.8% in 2011. As in this year, the main driving force for growth will still be emerging economies in Asia, whose contribution rate will account for one-third of the world's economic growth.
The report pointed out that the recovery of the world economy is still a major factor affecting oil demand, especially high unemployment rates in the OECD countries and regions, insufficient private consumption, sovereign debt crisis in some euro-zone countries, the fragile real estate market in the United States, and emerging The economy's suppression of overheated economic growth will become an important factor affecting the international oil market next year. In addition, in the medium and long term, the transparency of energy and environmental policies in major oil-consuming countries will also have a major impact on future oil demand.
In reviewing the 2010 international oil market, the report pointed out that due to better-than-expected global economic recovery, OPEC raised its forecast for world oil demand from the initial 500,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day. Developing countries in East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America continue to be the main source of demand growth, accounting for more than 75% of the total. At the same time, oil consumption in the OECD countries and regions experienced positive growth for the first time this year after four consecutive years of negative growth. Among them, oil demand in the United States and the Asia Pacific region has increased significantly, but demand performance in Western Europe is still not ideal.
The report estimates that the average demand for OPEC crude oil in the international oil market in 2011 was 29.2 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day compared with 2010. This means that the demand for OPEC crude oil in the international oil market will increase for the first time next year after falling for three consecutive years. In addition, output growth for non-OPEC oil-producing countries is expected to reach 400,000 barrels per day next year, and OPEC’s liquefied natural gas production will increase by approximately 500,000 cubic meters per day. The report believes that taking into account the fact that the international oil market's high inventory, remaining production capacity, and sufficient refining capacity will continue, the international oil market will still have sufficient buffer in 2010 to cope with the sudden rise in demand.
Driven by government-led economic stimulus policies, the global economy experienced a clear recovery in 2010, and OPEC’s expectations of global economic growth have also been increased from the initial 2.4% to 4.3%. However, with the gradual reduction of economic stimulus policies in OECD countries and regions and the fact that major emerging economies have begun to curb economic growth, OPEC expects world economic growth to slow to 3.8% in 2011. As in this year, the main driving force for growth will still be emerging economies in Asia, whose contribution rate will account for one-third of the world's economic growth.
The report pointed out that the recovery of the world economy is still a major factor affecting oil demand, especially high unemployment rates in the OECD countries and regions, insufficient private consumption, sovereign debt crisis in some euro-zone countries, the fragile real estate market in the United States, and emerging The economy's suppression of overheated economic growth will become an important factor affecting the international oil market next year. In addition, in the medium and long term, the transparency of energy and environmental policies in major oil-consuming countries will also have a major impact on future oil demand.
In reviewing the 2010 international oil market, the report pointed out that due to better-than-expected global economic recovery, OPEC raised its forecast for world oil demand from the initial 500,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day. Developing countries in East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America continue to be the main source of demand growth, accounting for more than 75% of the total. At the same time, oil consumption in the OECD countries and regions experienced positive growth for the first time this year after four consecutive years of negative growth. Among them, oil demand in the United States and the Asia Pacific region has increased significantly, but demand performance in Western Europe is still not ideal.
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