Recently, due to the end of 2011, many PV industry people have predicted the situation in 2012. Although their respective opinions are different, they are all full of hope for 2012, but the size of hope is different. Taking this opportunity, the author has also joined in the fun, from the perspective of production technology to predict the development of the polysilicon industry in 2012, the inadequacies also ask colleagues to point out that if you really have a great disagreement with your colleagues, then the right As a joke of work, this will also reduce the gloom of your colleagues more or less in the period of low industry. The market determines the development of the industry, which is unquestionable for anyone. Therefore, the development of the polysilicon industry is largely dependent on the development of downstream wafers, components and other industries. Some industry players predict that component shipments will be 35GW next year, of which consumption is 25GW, and the market circulation is about 10GW. From this, it can be seen that the component market next year is still quite large. Therefore, from this point of view, next year's polysilicon market should be better than now. With the market, the polysilicon industry can start production, and may not be able to operate at full capacity, but it should be much better than the current situation of almost all shutdowns. According to the data currently available, there are fewer than ten polysilicon production companies operating in China, and most of them are still reduced production. Of course, some people in the industry believe that if the market is going well next year, the polysilicon industry will likely see another increase in capacity, which will hit the market. In theory, this phenomenon may exist, and the probability of occurrence is very large, but in fact it may be more difficult to achieve this phenomenon. For this point of view, let's take a look at the author's analysis below. 1. The existence of a market does not mean that there is profit, and the production cost determines the development of the enterprise. In some of the previous texts, the author also talked about the production costs of domestic enterprises. The production cost of most domestic enterprises is currently 40 dollars, even more than 45 dollars (including depreciation). Of course, some people say that they have already reached 30 dollars. This is just a matter of listening. The peers only need to use the relevant production parameters to know what is going on. As for how to calculate the author, it is not convenient to disclose it. If you are interested, you can know about the production stoppage time of some enterprises that have been discontinued and the current polysilicon market price (you can push forward for 15 days or so). Still, in one sentence, the cost is made, not to say it. 2. The price of raw materials has played a certain role in promoting the reduction of polysilicon production costs. Due to the sluggish industry, the prices of raw materials such as silicon powder and liquid chlorine have also been greatly reduced, so it has played a certain role in promoting the current cost reduction. If the polysilicon market goes well and the demand for raw materials increases, then the price of raw materials will rise, and the price of raw materials will have the opposite effect on the production cost of polysilicon. 3. The lack of actual production capacity has restricted the development of enterprises. In this regard, many industry players have been able to calculate from some companies' quarterly reports or annual reports. At present, the actual production capacity of most domestic enterprises has not yet reached the design capacity. Therefore, it is self-evident that the enterprise can develop smoothly and healthily when the scale determines the cost. 4. Insufficient production capacity leads to high production indicators such as power consumption and material consumption. Everyone who has done production and operation knows that only by improving the production efficiency and increasing the production capacity on the basis of existing equipment, can it effectively and quickly reduce the production indicators such as power consumption and material consumption, and these production indicators are decided. The key factor in production costs. Therefore, the so-called low power consumption and low material consumption without capacity support are difficult to stand up. 5. The rise in electricity prices further tests the production cost control level of various polysilicon enterprises. Perhaps in the photovoltaic industry, the market conditions faced by upstream and downstream enterprises are always contradictory. Downstream enterprises, especially photovoltaic power generation companies, hope that electricity prices can be upgraded, thus laying the foundation for photovoltaic power generation. However, as the price of electricity rises, the production costs of upstream companies will also face greater pressure. Therefore, in the photovoltaic industry, the market is always mutual in a certain region, and it is difficult to have a single benefit winner. 6, the survival of the fittest is one of the laws of the market economy. With the development of the industry and the continuous advancement of technology, the phenomenon of survival of the fittest will be everywhere, and the polysilicon industry is inevitable. Therefore, in the next year, many small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated, which will add a new history of polysilicon development in China. Therefore, large polysilicon companies will emerge in the near future to lead the industry. At that time, the polysilicon industry will gradually transform into a new traditional industry, and there will be no big market ups and downs, and everything may return to a stable state. 7. The improvement of the market does not necessarily lead to the phenomenon of the company's crazy expansion. After the market is sluggish, the sound of overcapacity in the industry and even the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry is often filled with ears. Therefore, the market saturation in the context of the European debt crisis has forced every practitioner to wake up. The idea of ​​mass production to seize the market may be Being slowly reversed, it will be replaced by technological innovation, lean production and brand-oriented business philosophy. After all, as a company, few people like to use a low-cost strategy to make a long-term shopping market. Therefore, the author believes that in 2012, the expansion rate of various polysilicon enterprises will slow down or even stop. Some unstarted projects that have never involved investors in polysilicon production may be dead. Based on the above analysis, in 2012, in addition to the current release of production capacity will be released, other production capacity will be difficult to increase. If we eliminate the production capacity of the enterprises that have been eliminated and the new production capacity cannot be released quickly and fully, it is really hard to say what the actual production capacity of polysilicon will be next year. Analysis of the market and polysilicon production capacity, may wish to estimate the market price of polysilicon in 2012. Due to the impact of this year's market conditions, the rapid recovery of the photovoltaic industry in a short period of time is more difficult. Therefore, based on market conditions, the author predicts that the price of polysilicon in the first half of next year should be between 20 and 250,000. In the second half of the year, with the improvement of the photovoltaic industry, the price of polysilicon should be between 25 and 300,000. Of course, the basis of this forecast is the production cost of each company. In response to this prediction, some people may say that foreign companies will come to impact, thus affecting market prices. In fact, think about it, as a company, that does not want the price of the product to rise. Therefore, when the polysilicon production capacity is further reduced, the price of polysilicon will gradually increase, so that it will conform to the market rules. Coupled with the rising raw materials and electricity prices, resulting in rising polysilicon production costs, then the price of polysilicon is also inevitable. Of course, it will be difficult to see the phenomenon of price blowout in the future. At that time, the market price will tend to be assessed, and everything will return to normal and return to nature. 2012, for some companies may be more cruel, it will come to an end in this industry. 2012, for some talks may be a good time, it will have more room to play in this industry. All of this stems from the market, and more originates from the enterprise itself. It stems from its ability to innovate in technology, the implementation of lean production, the control of production costs, and the creation of corporate brands! At the end of the day, I still appreciate the words that Mr. Li Huiguang said on his Weibo. It may be shared: due to the special nature and technical complexity of polysilicon, a large number of small factories are being eliminated, and the production capacity is rapidly concentrated. A small number of oligopolies, solar companies without polysilicon plants are duckweed, very difficult in the future low-cost competition! Polycrystalline rises, the silicon wafer is stable, the components are lowered, the stability is stable, and the rise is steady. At this moment, the opportunity is rare. The scenery is good, and the production capacity is so important. Only technology is important!
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