After implementing the restrictions on house prices in various places, “ups and downs†are encountered in the disclosure of housing price data in a number of cities.
In 2012, the direction of the regulation of the property market has shifted from “containing excessively rapid price increases†to “promoting a reasonable return of housing pricesâ€. Is the current housing price up or down? To achieve a reasonable return of housing prices, "the hands of the market" and "government power" how to grasp?
◠Differences between statistical data and market experience The statistics recently released by the Shanghai Municipal Statistics Department show that in 2011, the average selling price of “new commercial housing†in Shanghai was 13,448 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 5.4% from the previous year; however, the elimination of affordable housing After relocation of housing and other affordable housing, the average price of “market-oriented new commercial housing†in Shanghai last year was 21,584 yuan per square meter, up 2.8% from the previous year.
Similar situations have also appeared in other cities. For example, according to the official data released by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee, the average transaction price of “new ordinary housing†in Beijing in 2011 decreased by 6.3% from the previous year. Albert I love my home market research institute statistics, in 2011 Beijing's "new ordinary commercial housing" average price rose about 7% year on year, while the newly-guaranteed housing transaction prices basically the same as last year, in fact, the price of the two components did not decline .
Some people think that from the perspective of the prices of pure commercial housing in some cities, housing prices are still clearly too high; others believe that if housing prices are also taken into account, housing prices in some regions have initially shown a positive trend of “reasonable returnâ€.
In this regard, Gu Yunchang, deputy head of the China Real Estate and Housing Research Association, said that “prices†should cover housing prices for various classes, including commercial housing and affordable housing. “A reasonable housing price is a reasonable housing price system, that is, a family of different strata. Can afford affordable housing."
According to Hui Jianqiang, director of the China Real Estate Association Research Center, from the perspective of the housing system, China is currently advancing the “dual track†system. The social housing system and the commercial housing system are both relatively independent and cross-cutting operations. Only new ordinary commodity housing prices are used. The reference range is too small. According to the increase in the number of affordable housing, the proportion of supply will reach about 70% of the total amount of new housing. Therefore, even if market-oriented commercial housing is included, “comprehensive house prices†should gradually return.
â— How do you combine the "market hand" and "government power" in 70 large and medium-sized cities? The overall "stopping up" prices, the continued delisting of housing companies, and continuous "big battles" fall into a capital crisis... Industry insiders believe that China's property market is awaiting To achieve the four "reasonable return":
First, housing prices have returned from "extremely steeper and steeper" to "steady operation." Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute's report shows that from 1996 to 2011, China's "higher prices are obvious." Nie Meisheng, chairman of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce, believes that “a reasonable return on house prices†is to return to a relatively reasonable range, such as the price increase between the CPI and GDP should be reasonable.
Second, the industry profits return from "one profit" to "reasonable profits." Yu Liang, president of China Vanke Group, believes that the development model for profiteering by hoarding land and skyrocketing house prices has already gone.
Third, product attributes return from "investment products" to "residential products." The data shows that since the control of property markets in Beijing and Shanghai, speculative investment demand has basically been squeezed out of the market. "The 'restricted purchases' release a clear signal that commercial housing should first satisfy basic residential needs," said Chen Jie, executive director of the Fudan University Housing Policy Research Center.
Fourth, the market structure returns from "commercial housing alone" to "walking on two legs." The relative shortage of affordable housing is a key factor affecting the healthy operation of the real estate market. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that although the growth rate of national real estate development fell last year, it still maintained rapid growth. One of the reasons for this is the acceleration of investment and construction of affordable housing.
Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council stressed that there are two real estate regulatory objectives: first, to promote a reasonable return to housing prices, and second, to promote the long-term, stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The industry believes that local governments should be prevented from over-reliance on the "administrative means" of regulation and control, and that the property market "is limited to the spirit." How to combine the use of "market hand" and "government power" should be an important issue in the next step of regulation and control.
â— "have housing" or "have room to live"
How much is the high price to be considered reasonable, whether it should be reduced to make people affordable? The housing guarantee is to make people “have a house†or “have a room to live in.†In the interview, the reporter felt that in the real estate regulation and housing protection work in recent years, the parties’ understanding of some key issues is incongruous and often The "house price problem" is confused with the "housing problem."
“If housing prices rise or fall, there will be housing problems.†Gu Yunchang said that controlling real estate prices from rising too fast is to prevent the economic risks brought about by the collapse of the real estate bubble; but the housing problem cannot be solved by controlling house prices, but It is necessary for the government to actively assume responsibility for the housing guarantee work.
The regulation of the property market can't "make a success in one battle." Experts said that from an overall and overall perspective, the development of the real estate industry is not ahead of time, but it is lagging behind. China is in the mid-stage of urbanization. Tens of millions of peasants are transformed into citizens each year. This means that there is some internal motivation for the imbalance in housing supply and demand.
Chen Jinsong, chairman of World Union Real Estate, bluntly stated that if housing prices fall by 20% to 40%, basically all listed housing companies have to face the risk of loss or bankruptcy. The industry expects that the capital chain of housing companies will deteriorate this year over 2008.
Experts believe that in this context, the key to solving the housing price issue is to curb the “fundamental fluctuations†in housing prices, dissociate the development of the real economy, and increase the income of urban and rural residents. To prevent the bursting of the real estate bubble from causing systemic risks to the macroeconomy and affecting residents’ reasonableness Property income. Therefore, regulation and control should pay more attention to the application of credit, taxation, and other economic instruments and legal instruments, and study the convergence with policies such as “restricted purchasesâ€.
According to the plan, China will build 36 million sets of affordable housing projects during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. During the “acceleration period†in these two years, there are many problems in the construction, management, distribution, and other areas of the security housing, which need to cause heights. Emphasis is placed on letting this “people’s livelihood project†stand the test. The "top-level design" of the social housing system should be speeded up, and a long-term mechanism for the protection of housing work should be established as soon as possible.
■Commentary Regulation and relaxation will affect the government's credibility in the implementation of central real estate control policies in depth, while the recent trends and short-sighted behavior in individual regions also appear. Under the background of the central government's promotion of the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market, it is unrealistic to hope that the real estate control policy will “turn†and the real estate regulation will not allow any loosening in disguise.
Although the State has introduced a series of real estate control policies and measures in recent years, initial success has been achieved, but the current real estate market regulation is still in a critical period, the results are only preliminary, and the basis for a reasonable return on housing prices is still not stable. In this case, once the regulation and control efforts are relaxed, it will trigger market confusion. It may not only trigger a rapid rebound in real estate market prices in the short term, but also the credibility of the government will be damaged, which is not conducive to consolidating the regulatory achievements and real estate that have been achieved. The sustained and healthy development of the industry.
In 2012, the direction of the regulation of the property market has shifted from “containing excessively rapid price increases†to “promoting a reasonable return of housing pricesâ€. Is the current housing price up or down? To achieve a reasonable return of housing prices, "the hands of the market" and "government power" how to grasp?
◠Differences between statistical data and market experience The statistics recently released by the Shanghai Municipal Statistics Department show that in 2011, the average selling price of “new commercial housing†in Shanghai was 13,448 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 5.4% from the previous year; however, the elimination of affordable housing After relocation of housing and other affordable housing, the average price of “market-oriented new commercial housing†in Shanghai last year was 21,584 yuan per square meter, up 2.8% from the previous year.
Similar situations have also appeared in other cities. For example, according to the official data released by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee, the average transaction price of “new ordinary housing†in Beijing in 2011 decreased by 6.3% from the previous year. Albert I love my home market research institute statistics, in 2011 Beijing's "new ordinary commercial housing" average price rose about 7% year on year, while the newly-guaranteed housing transaction prices basically the same as last year, in fact, the price of the two components did not decline .
Some people think that from the perspective of the prices of pure commercial housing in some cities, housing prices are still clearly too high; others believe that if housing prices are also taken into account, housing prices in some regions have initially shown a positive trend of “reasonable returnâ€.
In this regard, Gu Yunchang, deputy head of the China Real Estate and Housing Research Association, said that “prices†should cover housing prices for various classes, including commercial housing and affordable housing. “A reasonable housing price is a reasonable housing price system, that is, a family of different strata. Can afford affordable housing."
According to Hui Jianqiang, director of the China Real Estate Association Research Center, from the perspective of the housing system, China is currently advancing the “dual track†system. The social housing system and the commercial housing system are both relatively independent and cross-cutting operations. Only new ordinary commodity housing prices are used. The reference range is too small. According to the increase in the number of affordable housing, the proportion of supply will reach about 70% of the total amount of new housing. Therefore, even if market-oriented commercial housing is included, “comprehensive house prices†should gradually return.
â— How do you combine the "market hand" and "government power" in 70 large and medium-sized cities? The overall "stopping up" prices, the continued delisting of housing companies, and continuous "big battles" fall into a capital crisis... Industry insiders believe that China's property market is awaiting To achieve the four "reasonable return":
First, housing prices have returned from "extremely steeper and steeper" to "steady operation." Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute's report shows that from 1996 to 2011, China's "higher prices are obvious." Nie Meisheng, chairman of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce, believes that “a reasonable return on house prices†is to return to a relatively reasonable range, such as the price increase between the CPI and GDP should be reasonable.
Second, the industry profits return from "one profit" to "reasonable profits." Yu Liang, president of China Vanke Group, believes that the development model for profiteering by hoarding land and skyrocketing house prices has already gone.
Third, product attributes return from "investment products" to "residential products." The data shows that since the control of property markets in Beijing and Shanghai, speculative investment demand has basically been squeezed out of the market. "The 'restricted purchases' release a clear signal that commercial housing should first satisfy basic residential needs," said Chen Jie, executive director of the Fudan University Housing Policy Research Center.
Fourth, the market structure returns from "commercial housing alone" to "walking on two legs." The relative shortage of affordable housing is a key factor affecting the healthy operation of the real estate market. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that although the growth rate of national real estate development fell last year, it still maintained rapid growth. One of the reasons for this is the acceleration of investment and construction of affordable housing.
Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council stressed that there are two real estate regulatory objectives: first, to promote a reasonable return to housing prices, and second, to promote the long-term, stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The industry believes that local governments should be prevented from over-reliance on the "administrative means" of regulation and control, and that the property market "is limited to the spirit." How to combine the use of "market hand" and "government power" should be an important issue in the next step of regulation and control.
â— "have housing" or "have room to live"
How much is the high price to be considered reasonable, whether it should be reduced to make people affordable? The housing guarantee is to make people “have a house†or “have a room to live in.†In the interview, the reporter felt that in the real estate regulation and housing protection work in recent years, the parties’ understanding of some key issues is incongruous and often The "house price problem" is confused with the "housing problem."
“If housing prices rise or fall, there will be housing problems.†Gu Yunchang said that controlling real estate prices from rising too fast is to prevent the economic risks brought about by the collapse of the real estate bubble; but the housing problem cannot be solved by controlling house prices, but It is necessary for the government to actively assume responsibility for the housing guarantee work.
The regulation of the property market can't "make a success in one battle." Experts said that from an overall and overall perspective, the development of the real estate industry is not ahead of time, but it is lagging behind. China is in the mid-stage of urbanization. Tens of millions of peasants are transformed into citizens each year. This means that there is some internal motivation for the imbalance in housing supply and demand.
Chen Jinsong, chairman of World Union Real Estate, bluntly stated that if housing prices fall by 20% to 40%, basically all listed housing companies have to face the risk of loss or bankruptcy. The industry expects that the capital chain of housing companies will deteriorate this year over 2008.
Experts believe that in this context, the key to solving the housing price issue is to curb the “fundamental fluctuations†in housing prices, dissociate the development of the real economy, and increase the income of urban and rural residents. To prevent the bursting of the real estate bubble from causing systemic risks to the macroeconomy and affecting residents’ reasonableness Property income. Therefore, regulation and control should pay more attention to the application of credit, taxation, and other economic instruments and legal instruments, and study the convergence with policies such as “restricted purchasesâ€.
According to the plan, China will build 36 million sets of affordable housing projects during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. During the “acceleration period†in these two years, there are many problems in the construction, management, distribution, and other areas of the security housing, which need to cause heights. Emphasis is placed on letting this “people’s livelihood project†stand the test. The "top-level design" of the social housing system should be speeded up, and a long-term mechanism for the protection of housing work should be established as soon as possible.
■Commentary Regulation and relaxation will affect the government's credibility in the implementation of central real estate control policies in depth, while the recent trends and short-sighted behavior in individual regions also appear. Under the background of the central government's promotion of the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market, it is unrealistic to hope that the real estate control policy will “turn†and the real estate regulation will not allow any loosening in disguise.
Although the State has introduced a series of real estate control policies and measures in recent years, initial success has been achieved, but the current real estate market regulation is still in a critical period, the results are only preliminary, and the basis for a reasonable return on housing prices is still not stable. In this case, once the regulation and control efforts are relaxed, it will trigger market confusion. It may not only trigger a rapid rebound in real estate market prices in the short term, but also the credibility of the government will be damaged, which is not conducive to consolidating the regulatory achievements and real estate that have been achieved. The sustained and healthy development of the industry.
Chunlei Quntification Co.,Ltd , https://www.hychunleitools.com