Abstract "6.9%!" If you add the phrase "increasing value of industrial added value above the scale" in front of this data, then the excitement of the industry is not surprising. National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th...
“6.9%!†If you add the phrase “increased growth rate of industrial value above designated size†in front of this data, then the excitement of the industry is not surprising. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th, the added value of China's above-scale industries increased by 6.9% in August 2014, setting a new low since December 2008. Experts said that the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large.
Macro data is frequent and cold water
On the 13th, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August 2014, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from July. Statistics from the financial data terminal of WIND show that this is the fifth time that China's monthly industrial added value growth rate fell below 7% in this century. The previous low point was in the financial crisis of November and December 2008, respectively, 5.4% and 5.7%.
In addition, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in January-August was 16.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from January to July, continuing the trend of steady downward trend in the past two years.
When the data came out, there were macroeconomic researchers who used the "exclamation mark" to express shock. But it may not be surprising to say an accident.
Previously, on September 12, the data released by the central bank showed that in August 2014, China’s social financing scale was 957.4 billion yuan, although it increased by 683.7 billion yuan in July compared with the “cliff-style†decline, but still decreased by 262.7 billion over the same period last year. Yuan; September 11th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI rose in August to 2%, far below market expectations, hitting a new low in the past four months; at the same time, the PMI in August fell by 0.6 percentage points. The non-manufacturing new orders index fell to 50, hitting a new low since May 2009, while imports fell 2.4% year-on-year. Domestic demand “tightened†once again triggered market attention.
The downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large
In July, macroeconomic data was frigid and cold, investment slowed down, and domestic demand was sluggish. Guo Tongxin, an expert from the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the world economy is still warm, the domestic real estate industry is adjusting, and enterprises are actively transforming and restructuring, which is the main cause of data fluctuations.
Guo Tongxin pointed out that the average national temperature in August was 1.5 degrees Celsius lower than the same period of the previous year. The low temperature caused the demand for electricity consumption of enterprises to decrease, and the industries such as electricity, heat and coal mining were affected to varying degrees. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 0.32 percentage points.
After experiencing rapid growth in the past few years, the automotive and electronics industries have begun to return to the “new normalâ€. The data shows that the growth rate of the automobile, computer, communications, electronics and other industries has dropped significantly. Among them, the car production in August only increased by 0.7%, almost entering the “micro-growth†range. This factor also contributed 0.31 percentage points in the “sudden drop†of industrial added value above designated size in August.
In addition, the adjustment of real estate has caused fluctuations in the upstream and downstream, and has a significant impact on economic data.
Guo Tongxin admits that under the background of the "three phases", China's economic downturn is still relatively large.
â– Interpretation
Look at the Chinese economy to "see the whole picture"
At the opening ceremony of the 8th Summer Davos Forum held recently, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out: "Looking at the Chinese economy, we must not only look at the front, see the local, see the 'single subject', but also look at the trend, see the overall situation, and see the total Minute'."
Yu Bin, director of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said recently that although the economic growth rate will slow down, the quality and efficiency of economic operations will be significantly improved. China is in the transition period from high-speed growth to medium-high speed and medium-low speed. Some problems that were originally covered by high-speed growth will be exposed during this period.
Today, restructuring and promoting transformation are the top priorities of the country's economic work. Realizing the restructuring of the industry through mergers and acquisitions, etc., is the real dynamic of the micro-entities.
Data from the WIND financial data terminal shows that the total amount of M&A transactions completed nationwide has reached 695 billion yuan since the beginning of this year, which has exceeded the transaction completion amount for the whole year of 2013. The trend of mergers and acquisitions of A-share listed companies is still prevalent, and hundreds of listed companies have simultaneously suspended their grand occasions.
Guo Tongxin believes that despite the degree of fluctuations in economic data, China's structural adjustment is steadily advancing, consumption growth is generally stable, and there are still more favorable conditions for supporting stable economic operations.
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