Abstract GDP data is the most important assessment indicator. It only talks about production capacity, does not talk about cost, and does not talk about sales. The competition between local governments and investment has reached a point of enthusiasm. Professor Huang Yasheng believes that due to the demarcation of land in various places, China’s resource allocation has deviated from the principle of complementary advantages, each...
The GDP data is the most important assessment indicator. It only talks about production capacity, does not talk about cost, and does not talk about sales. The competition between local governments and investment has reached a point of enthusiasm. Professor Huang Yasheng believes that due to the demarcation of land in various places, China's resource allocation has deviated from the principle of complementary advantages, and local governments have repeatedly repeated production. Today, you make steel to make money, and tomorrow he will build several blast furnaces; today you rely on organic vegetables to make money, tomorrow he immediately labeled his own vegetables with organic vegetables; today you build a wholesale market to make money, the day after tomorrow wholesale market will spring up.
Intention to make evil, unintentional can also cause bad consequences. I have a friend who has cultivated characteristic pigs in a certain county. There are brands, technology and sales. The local government ordered the county to promote such pig breeds. As a result, it is conceivable that the brand premium will be lost at a glance, and there will be no shortage of supervision and falsehood.
Overcapacity is related to excessively loose monetary policy. In this regard, there is a foresight of the Bank of Japan. The quantitative easing monetary policy that lasted for nearly two decades has made the yen a arbitrage currency that is rampant across the globe. On the other hand, it allows companies to obtain cheap low-interest loans, which can continuously produce more commodities, but the innovation of enterprises. The popularity of products and products is not as rampant as currency.
Large Chinese companies can get cheap loans for a long time, and even local governments endorse corporate loans on the grounds of developing the local economy. This not only attracted the enterprise, but also attracted liar and speculators who focused on low-interest loans for currency arbitrage. The author has said many times that the virtual economy is virtualized. In the economic downturn, financing iron, financing copper, and financing real estate are emerging one after another. They are not interested in industry, and they are interested in using product arbitrage. In the stock market, we have seen companies that have a guarantee amount of more than 80 times their total assets, and have seen companies with debts far exceeding net assets. Perhaps it is difficult for the entity to do it. Perhaps the virtual profit is too easy. Almost all the entities will enter the real estate field if they have a certain scale, whether it is Youngor or Gree.
Low-cost funds have been dumped, and some enterprises or industries that have received special attention have been underdeveloped, such as the photovoltaic industry. At present, PV companies are struggling, which is the typical response of the traditional manufacturing industry after the excessive squandering of funds. Domestic consumption does not start, international consumption is saturated, the subsidy system is not improved, and the innovation mechanism comes from abroad. It is normal for domestic low-end overcapacity to engage in new energy speculation.
The recent rescue of the photovoltaic industry has emphasized distributed generation, which means that the government is trying to encourage Chinese people to consume solar energy; the government has also stressed the overcapacity in the industry and the lack of innovation in the industry. I believe that in order to save the industry, the government will continue to inject cheap money into large enterprises, but this time it is “have to be†and is completely different from the previous “voluntary†delivery.
In the early days of industrialization, it was understandable that the government loved enterprises to cultivate industry competitiveness and support the initial industry. China's construction machinery industry is the result of cultivation, but when the low-end manufacturing capacity is vicious and no one can survive, such "rough fatherly love" must enter the system correction period.
Overcapacity is the result of mismatching of resources and is the result of a mismatch between consumption and product. Establishing a unified large market, eliminating inappropriate subsidies, establishing a fair monetary policy, and cultivating the backbone of national product consumption are fundamentally saving domestic manufacturing, and encouraging industrial upgrading.
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