As the year approaches, review of the steel market this year can be described as ups and downs. Since the fourth quarter, steel prices have always been in a turbulent upward phase.
Judging from the First Financial-My Steel Steel Composite Price Index, the index continued to rise from 154.8 points on 1 September to 165.5 points on the latest December 7, a total increase of 10.7 points, or an increase of 6.9%. In the short term, it is expected that the domestic steel market will continue to be in a turbulent upward channel. What are the factors that have recently affected the rise in steel prices, especially in the fourth quarter, when market transactions were generally unfavorable, how could steel prices rise steadily?
The author believes that the current steel market is mainly driven by the external disk, plus the cost and inventory support, the market fell short of space, the market with a heavier component.
First, look at the external market. In the second half of this year, the United States adopted a series of economic stimulus policies in order to revitalize the domestic economy. The United States has good expectations for the effect of the policy after its release, and the United States has given the economic situation in the recovery channel. The greater confidence of investors led to the continued rise of US stocks. Looking at the domestic market, domestic investor confidence has also been boosted by the rise in US stocks. In the second half of this year, the domestic economic growth situation is still good, and PMI has also rebounded for many months. In addition, the "12th Five-Year Plan" of various industries has also been released one after another. According to the plan, most industries are optimistic about the development during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and put forward large-scale investment and development plans, which have also led to a certain extent of the domestic market upside. . The forward price of steel products, such as steel products and electronic products, was greatly affected by the broader market, which was more obvious than the upward trend.
With the gradual decline in the growth of domestic fixed asset investment, the domestic steel spot market in the second half of the demand is relatively sluggish, the market has to rely on the long-term price to determine the market trend, leading to market prices and forward prices are exactly the same, and the long-term price is always in The high consolidation is the main reason for the current high spot price of steel.
Second, starting from the fourth quarter of this year, the bottom price support of the domestic steel market is relatively large. As China's "Eleventh Five-Year" period of energy-saving emission reduction implementation of less intensity, in order to complete the intended goal, the state began in September from the national energy-saving emission reduction action, the iron and steel industry bear the brunt.
This round of high-intensity energy-saving and emission-reduction actions have caused steel production in most regions of the country to stop production and stop production, affecting huge steel production. The daily average production of crude steel decreased from 1.666 million tons in August to 1.622 million tons in October. Because of this, the arrival of steel stocks in the spot market has been significantly suppressed, and the shortage of goods has also become increasingly prominent. The market inventory has gradually entered. According to my steel network statistics, the national thread stocks declined from 5.6666 million tons in early September to 4.24455 million tons in early December, down 446,000 tons. The decline in inventory gave the market a strong support and prices began to rise slowly. The rise in market prices also stimulated the upward adjustment of steel mills' prices. As a result, the current cost of resources in the hands of the merchants was at a relatively high level and the decline was inhibited. space.
At the end of the day, the high level of financial market operations has given marketers greater confidence, and the lack of market conditions has also made the market reluctant to sell more. As the price of steel mills has risen, the cost of resources has risen. Almost disappeared. Although the deal was not good, the low inventory in the market made the sales pressure of the business small, making the price firm and running at a high level.
Judging from the First Financial-My Steel Steel Composite Price Index, the index continued to rise from 154.8 points on 1 September to 165.5 points on the latest December 7, a total increase of 10.7 points, or an increase of 6.9%. In the short term, it is expected that the domestic steel market will continue to be in a turbulent upward channel. What are the factors that have recently affected the rise in steel prices, especially in the fourth quarter, when market transactions were generally unfavorable, how could steel prices rise steadily?
The author believes that the current steel market is mainly driven by the external disk, plus the cost and inventory support, the market fell short of space, the market with a heavier component.
First, look at the external market. In the second half of this year, the United States adopted a series of economic stimulus policies in order to revitalize the domestic economy. The United States has good expectations for the effect of the policy after its release, and the United States has given the economic situation in the recovery channel. The greater confidence of investors led to the continued rise of US stocks. Looking at the domestic market, domestic investor confidence has also been boosted by the rise in US stocks. In the second half of this year, the domestic economic growth situation is still good, and PMI has also rebounded for many months. In addition, the "12th Five-Year Plan" of various industries has also been released one after another. According to the plan, most industries are optimistic about the development during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and put forward large-scale investment and development plans, which have also led to a certain extent of the domestic market upside. . The forward price of steel products, such as steel products and electronic products, was greatly affected by the broader market, which was more obvious than the upward trend.
With the gradual decline in the growth of domestic fixed asset investment, the domestic steel spot market in the second half of the demand is relatively sluggish, the market has to rely on the long-term price to determine the market trend, leading to market prices and forward prices are exactly the same, and the long-term price is always in The high consolidation is the main reason for the current high spot price of steel.
Second, starting from the fourth quarter of this year, the bottom price support of the domestic steel market is relatively large. As China's "Eleventh Five-Year" period of energy-saving emission reduction implementation of less intensity, in order to complete the intended goal, the state began in September from the national energy-saving emission reduction action, the iron and steel industry bear the brunt.
This round of high-intensity energy-saving and emission-reduction actions have caused steel production in most regions of the country to stop production and stop production, affecting huge steel production. The daily average production of crude steel decreased from 1.666 million tons in August to 1.622 million tons in October. Because of this, the arrival of steel stocks in the spot market has been significantly suppressed, and the shortage of goods has also become increasingly prominent. The market inventory has gradually entered. According to my steel network statistics, the national thread stocks declined from 5.6666 million tons in early September to 4.24455 million tons in early December, down 446,000 tons. The decline in inventory gave the market a strong support and prices began to rise slowly. The rise in market prices also stimulated the upward adjustment of steel mills' prices. As a result, the current cost of resources in the hands of the merchants was at a relatively high level and the decline was inhibited. space.
At the end of the day, the high level of financial market operations has given marketers greater confidence, and the lack of market conditions has also made the market reluctant to sell more. As the price of steel mills has risen, the cost of resources has risen. Almost disappeared. Although the deal was not good, the low inventory in the market made the sales pressure of the business small, making the price firm and running at a high level.
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