The “12th Five-Year” GDP target growth rate may be 7%-8%

With the outbreak of the current financial crisis, the economic growth mode that relies on external demand and investment can no longer continue. Therefore, expanding domestic demand has become an important issue that China needs to solve in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".

The Xinhua News Agency recently published an article stressing that in the face of the imbalance between domestic demand and external demand, investment and consumption, expanding domestic demand will become the primary task of China's economic restructuring during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. As a strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, China will further expand the space for sustainable development through urbanization during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

Many experts who have been interviewed by the "First Financial Daily" reporter believe that the accelerated development stage of urbanization in China will provide a huge and sustainable development space for expanding domestic demand.

The relevant departments predict that China's urbanization rate will reach about 65% by 2030, and various towns and cities will add more than 300 million people, which will provide a strong and lasting impetus for expanding consumption and investment demand.

Relevant securities institutions predict that since the beginning of last year, the promulgation of some regional development plans has raised the national 12th Five-Year Plan for urbanization to over 50%. In 2009, China's urbanization rate was 46.6%.

BOC International believes that urbanization is an important factor supporting investment during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. The development of urban agglomerations will directly bring in investment needs such as intercity and urban rail transit. The accelerated development of small and medium-sized cities and small towns will also drive some infrastructure investment demand. At present, the supply level of infrastructure in small and medium-sized cities lags far behind that of large and medium-sized cities.

Especially since 2009, regional development and industrial transfer planning have been introduced in many regions of China, which will accelerate the urbanization process in the surrounding areas and stimulate the development of the service industry.

In addition, urbanization will lead to an increase in household consumption levels and structural upgrading, which will stimulate demand for some manufacturing and infrastructure investment.

However, in the process of urbanization in China, to achieve the realization of urbanization acceleration, we need deep-seated reforms of a series of systems such as household registration, labor and employment, income distribution, education, medical care, and social security.

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