The global situation is confusing, and there are still concerns about non-ferrous metals in the short term.

The recent global turmoil is extremely complicated. To sort out, the international events that have a major impact on the commodity market in the next stage are mainly Japan's post-disaster reconstruction plan and the evolution of the Middle East in North Africa. For now, the demand for bulk commodities and raw materials for the redevelopment plan will be the main source of incremental demand for commodities in the medium term.  

The overall recovery of the US economy is relatively clear, and both economic growth and employment have improved significantly. However, the US real estate industry is still weak. New home sales fell 16.9% in February, falling to a record low of 250,000 units, far below the expected 290,000 units. US home sales in February fell 9.6%. After adjusting for seasonal factors, existing home sales were converted to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, the lowest level since November last year, and prices fell to the lowest level in nearly nine years. Portugal has also recently raised some new questions about the budget. The European debt problem may be repeated in the next stage, but it will not become the dominant factor in the commodity market.

At present, the war in Libya is in full swing, and Yemen has also experienced serious internal division problems at this point in time. If Yemen is not effectively controlled, the threat to the West will be even greater. In addition, the current unstable situation has shown a clear spread, and these will increase the uncertainty of the global economy.

The domestic situation is clearer than the global situation. Inflation will peak in the second quarter because of food prices. And due to the tightening of credit and the impact of policies on real estate investment, economic growth will gradually return to the average in the second quarter. It seems that the changes in monetary policy will be seen in the third quarter. This time may overlap with the reconstruction project in Japan, which will have a big advantage for industrial products, especially metals. The regulation of domestic real estate can only seem to seek the golden mean. The sharp drop in real estate prices will damage the so-called "middle class", that is, the interests of housing people, and the rapid rise of real estate prices will damage the interests of most ordinary people. Therefore, it is estimated that in the future, nominal house prices will maintain a steady or slower growth rate, while gradually lowering the real price of real estate through higher inflation levels.

In general, in the short-term, the unstable Middle East in North Africa will lead to the upward trend of oil prices, and the rise in oil prices is more understood as a risk premium in the short term, and will not be transmitted to the price of bulk commodities through cost. In other words, in the short term, we will see the trend of oil prices and other commodities deviate. In addition, one problem that investors need to pay attention to is that the impact of the recent increase in the reserve ratio on commodities is not only reflected on the day of the announcement of the policy or the second trading day, but the probability of extreme market on the contribution date of the reserve. It seems bigger. In the medium term, if the global economy stabilizes, Japan's incremental demand will raise the marginal price, that is, incremental demand will boost prices.