Abstract Beijing 8th Asset Management senior analyst at Merchants Bank, said Liu Dongliang Reviewed 8 April export growth was weaker than expected, but the market is more concentrated focus on the sustainability of China's economy has stabilized and the Federal Reserve in June plus The probability of interest, etc. Imports again year after year...
On the 8th, Beijing time, Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of China Merchants Bank Asset Management Department, said on the 8th that the growth rate of imports and exports in April was lower than expected, but the market focus was more on the sustainability of China's economic stabilization and the Fed's June rate hike. The probability of such a problem. Imports fell again in double digits year-on-year, and commodities have continued to rebound since this year. Prices will not be significantly dragged on imports, indicating that domestic demand is still weak;
Although the RMB CFETS index has maintained a downward trend in the near future, the downward trend is very limited and the RMB remains relatively stable against the US dollar, which is difficult to stimulate a significant rebound in exports;
It is expected that the possibility of negative growth in exports denominated in US dollars in the coming months will remain high;
The EU's import and export growth of China's largest trading partner is conducive to stabilizing export expectations;
The trade surplus has once again expanded significantly. Considering that the renminbi is relatively stable in the near future and the devaluation is expected to cool down, the willingness of enterprises to raise foreign exchange may rise. To some extent, it is conducive to the performance of foreign exchange. The external reserve may remain stable in April but it can be used as evidence. The foreign investment boom of capital is still going on, which will offset the positive effects of the expansion of the trade surplus.
Note: According to China Customs Administration, China’s exports in US dollars in April fell by 1.8% year-on-year, imports fell by 10.9%, and trade surplus was US$45.56 billion.
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