Coal industry: There is still pressure on coal prices to stabilize in the short-term

Thermal coal prices are running weakly. This week, the coal market continues to operate weakly due to several reasons: First, for the eleventh five-year energy conservation and emission reduction tasks, some areas began to shut down some high-energy-consuming enterprises; second, with the gradual end of summer coal consumption peak The coal consumption of the power plant has been reduced; third, the power plant has sufficient inventory and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. The above factors will continue in the future and the coal market will operate weakly.

The transfer price of coal continued to decline. On September 13, the thermal coal price in Qinhuangdao was generally reduced by RMB 5/t.

Australian Coal BJ prices continue to rise. On September 9, the spot price of Australian BJ was US$93.7/ton, which was US$0.45/ton higher than last week.

Coking coal prices are stable and there are still pressures in the short term. Coking coal prices remained stable this week. However, the time limit for the energy-saving and emission reduction targets for the 11th Five-Year Plan is approaching, and the intensity of steel plant shutdowns has increased, and the demand for short-term coke coking coal may be affected. However, in the long run, with continuous elimination of outdated production capacity, steel mills have increased their thresholds for blast furnace shutdown, and large blast furnaces have increased. Demand for high-quality coke coking coal has increased, and the scarcity of high-quality coking coal will inevitably support its firm prices.

The price of injected coal has generally risen. The price of coal injected this week has generally risen significantly. We have determined that the increasing intensity of steel mill closures, especially when some of the planned production has just begun shutting down production capacity, will inevitably affect the demand for short-term coal injection, but in the long term, with the increase of large blast furnaces, high-quality injection coal demand and prices will increase. There will be support. On September 13, Yangquan, Shouyang, and Changzhi injected coal generally rose by 50 yuan per ton without smoke and lump coal prices remained stable this week. On September 13, the price of anthracite such as Jincheng and Yangquan remained stable.

The price of coke is stable this week. On September 13, the prices of coke in Linyi and Jiexiu remained stable.

Other relevant prices or indices: The September 21 integrated freight index (BDI) was 2988 points, up 153 points (+5.4%) from last week; the Panamax freight index (BPI) was 3396 points, which was 364 points higher than last week ( +12%). Qinhuangdao stocks 7.68 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons this week, including 7.48 million tons of domestic coal and 198,000 tons of foreign trade coal.

Stock price and valuation: Coal stocks were weaker than the broader market last Wednesday: Shanghai and Shenzhen coal stocks fell an average of 2%, lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increase of 1.5 percentage points; we focus on tracking coal stocks 15 years PE 15 times, higher than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 30010 Annual PE13.8 times the level. US coal stocks rose 0.5% on average, 1.5 percentage points lower than the S&P 500 index. Hong Kong coal stocks rose an average of 0.4%, which is 0.3% lower than the Hang Seng Index.