PMI's two-month economic growth rate still has downside risks

China Logistics and Purchasing Association recently released data show that in September China manufacturing purchasing managers index was 51.2%, the chain rose 0.3 percentage points. Due to seasonal factors, the index has rebounded for two consecutive months, indicating that the economic development has returned to a steady state. From the sub-indices, the purchase price index fell by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the input inflationary pressure is further eased. However, analysts pointed out that China's inflation level is slowly falling, but the decline is not enough to make a clear shift in monetary policy, and it is difficult to fully relax the policy in the short term.   Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said. In September, the PMI index continued to rebound slightly, indicating that the possibility of a steady downward trend in economic growth is further increasing. Industrial Bank chief economist Lu political commissar also said that the September data in line with market expectations, but the rise was mainly contributed by seasonal factors, showed the economy as a whole still maintain a "no rain and no clear" type of stable. At the same time, HSBC data showed that the final value of HSBC PMI in September was 49.9%, slightly higher than the initial value of 49.4%, which was basically the same as that in August, close to the economic expansion contraction threshold of 50%. In addition, both CFLP and HSBC's service PMI in September showed a significant rebound. However, it should be noted that September is the traditional peak season for manufacturing. Statistics show that in the past 6 years, the PMI in September increased by 2.3 percentage points compared with the average in August, but the PMI in September was significantly lower than the historical average. In this regard, Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, said that the seasonally adjusted growth rate of industrial added value is likely to fall again in September due to the simultaneous slowdown in internal and external demand, indicating that the downside risks to economic growth have increased. . Zhang Liqun also pointed out that "from the growth rate of the three major demands, the overall trend is still declining, especially the decline in export growth is likely. The industrial growth rate continued to fall in July and August. In general, the future economic growth continues. The possibility of the downside is still relatively large. He also stressed that the current development of SMEs is facing greater difficulties. The purchase price index in September has declined, indicating that the cost pressure on enterprises may be reduced, but the policy support for SMEs is still Need to be enhanced as soon as possible. The data showed that the main raw material purchase price index in September was 56.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from August. In this regard, analysts pointed out that although the current inflationary momentum has decayed, the price trend is still high. It is widely expected that the CPI will remain at a high level of more than 6% in September. Peng Wensheng believes that under the current unclear risks, the possibility of a recent policy shift is still small, and monetary policy will maintain its current tight state for some time. However, it is worth noting that the signal of partial relaxation has already appeared. On October 4, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council made a clear statement during the inspection in Wenzhou that SMEs did have problems and asked the heads of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China to introduce financial support policies for SMEs within one month. Some analysts believe that this is a signal of partial loosening after the credit crunch has continued for 12 months. Increasing the financial investment in the construction of affordable housing and reducing taxes for SMEs should probably play a greater role in the new round of partial relaxation.  

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