Potash supply exceeds demand

After experiencing the fine-tuning in the first half of the year and the downturn in the second half of the year, the potash price temporarily entered a plateau. People in the industry have begun to rationally analyze the market conditions in the winter and next spring. Duan Shengqing, deputy general manager of Qinghai Salt Lake Sales Co., Ltd., said that as the production of salt lakes is influenced by the seasons this winter and next spring, there will be a few months of production stoppages, and the market supply will be reduced during this period, plus the need for agricultural production in the winter and next spring. The current price has bottomed out. The deputy general manager and chief financial officer Dai Gang of the SDIC Xinjiang Lop Pot Potash Co., Ltd. also stated: “With the soft landing of the national economy, the potash market in the second half has played a certain inhibitory effect. From the recent trend of the potash market, there are There are certain signs of stabilization.” For the potash market next year, he believes that the most important task is to stabilize prices at a reasonable level.

Tan Xiaozhi, Potassium Fertilizer and Industrial Raw Material Division of China Agricultural Group Holdings Co., Ltd. believes that the current potash market has signs of stabilizing, but after a rational analysis, it cannot be overly optimistic. He analyzed: “Now there are still more than 6 million tons of ports, enterprises, and pipe inventory, and the inventory is relatively large, and domestic potash is distributed in social stocks, which is not good for statistics. Since the stock is large, there is a need for a gradual production of compound fertilizer. The process of digestion and destocking is now in the off-season for the use of fertilizers throughout the year. There is still a long way to go in the north-east or south-south spring plowing. The trend of other fertilizers such as diammonium and compound fertilizers is not yet clear. Some diammonium and compound fertilizer manufacturers are in the northeast. Although the offer was made, the grass-roots distributors were not very active and they did not agree with the current prices. Therefore, it remains to be seen when the price of potash will significantly increase.

Feng Mingwei judged the market outlook by analyzing various aspects of the market. He said: “From the international perspective, although the oversupply pressure in the international market is prominent, several major international giants have announced production cuts, and the international supply and demand of potash will be in a tightly balanced state. The market gradually stabilised, and at the same time, the expected increase in food prices and the increase in demand for potash fertilizer in the next year, the international suppliers are looking forward to the potash fertilizer market.For border trade potash fertilizers, shipments are still receiving much attention. Importers are selling below cost and occupying limited demand, but The gradual stabilisation of the volume of land shipments and prices has contributed to the stability of the domestic potash fertilizer market. Domestic potash production capacity will have a certain increase, and the structure will also have certain changes, but the strategy will remain relatively stable, and the impact on the market will be reduced. The price of domestic potash fertilizer is still constrained by transport problems and quality bottlenecks, and from the downstream point of view, with the advent of spring plowing and the season, the Matthew effect of the compound fertilizer industry will gradually emerge, and the degree of concentration will increase, and demand will recover. Analysis of factors affecting the potash fertilizer market, with strong bullish factors in the late potash fertilizer market Negative factors, the market is expected to gradually stabilize potash, potash market ushered in the spring. "