The refined oil price mechanism is expected to accelerate the impact of the three major oil stocks

The price of oil has risen for several days. However, some analysts expect oil prices to remain in the $70-$90 range in the short-term, which will have mixed pros and cons for petrochemical companies. However, the Chinese economy will have a chance to slow down, and the mainland will lower its refined oil prices for petrochemical companies. Negative effects. In the long run, the trend of the three major oil stocks is cautiously optimistic. Hong Kong Commercial Daily Reporter Receives Mainland's Oil Price Concerning International Standards "Although the investment market sentiment improved, oil inventories decreased, and the oil group remarked in support of oil prices," Pan Zhiwei, vice president of Yadamen Global, believes the possibility of further oil price increases. Not so big, the global economy has obviously slowed down, and it has impacted on oil demand. A short period of bounce and breathlessness is not enough to change the big picture. It is expected that in the next six months, the New York oil futures will have a low position of between 70 and 75 U.S. dollars. The high price of 90 U.S. dollars has already seen resistance, and the highest is at 100 U.S. dollars.

At the same time, the Mainland is carrying out reforms on refined oil products and taxes. Historically, the levy of oil and gas resources tax reflects less than the increase in oil prices and gas prices, so that local governments cannot share the profits brought by rising oil and gas prices with oil companies. The central government reformed and changed the oil and gas resources tax to ad valorem, last June. It first tried a 5% resource tax in Xinjiang and then expanded it to 12 provinces in the west. It will be officially launched in the country next month.

CNOOC was affected by the policy. CNOOC (883), which is mainly engaged in offshore mining, was less affected by the policy. Bao Junwen, head of Asia Energy Research at CLSA, believes that because CNOOC is mainly engaged in offshore mining, it does not pay special revenues from the Chinese government to oil companies. It is expected that the impact of the resource tax reform on CNOOC will be slight.

Bank of Communications International believes that CNOOC’s production growth and reserve substitution rate surpass domestic and international peers. In terms of financial status, CNOOC has ample cash and the company raised US$3.25 billion in net cash to help the company fund development projects and acquisitions. The bank believes that CNOOC's stock price will rebound quickly because past experience shows that after the elimination of negative factors, the stock price will quickly rebound, giving a “long-term buy” rating and a target price of HK$16.7.

The outlook for China National Petroleum, which has disagreed with the oil and gas market and has the upper and lower businesses, may not be too thin. The reason is that it is expected that oil prices will hardly rise sharply in the next two years, which will help reduce the cost of refining companies in the Mainland. However, Guo Jiayao, the vice president of Haitong International's China Business Department, said that the refined oil prices have just been lowered, and resource tax rules have been introduced. China Petroleum, which has both upstream and downstream businesses, is the hardest hit, and does not rule out that brokerages will cut their earnings forecasts one after another.

The Morgan Stanley report stated that the NDRC announced the reduction of refined oil prices, and that PetroChina's downstream business also faces the same risks. Investors may consider negative measures in the short term. Credit Suisse said that the market oversaw the loss of PetroChina's refining business, but its upstream business reflected a reasonable value of 12.3 yuan per share. The bank restored PetroChina’s rating to “neutral” and its target price was fine-tuned from 12 to HK$11.15.

Sinopec may benefit from Sinopec, which is mainly engaged in the downstream refining business. It is the largest refiner in Asia. In the first half of 2011, based on the drop in the cost of input crude oil and the increase in sales volume of marketing promotion, Sinopec recorded a record high for historical earnings. Pan Tieshan, head of Haitong International's China Business Unit, believes that the gradual marketization of oil refining prices in the Mainland and the stable oil prices in the second half of the year have created a favourable operating environment for the petrochemical industry. Sinopec is expected to benefit most from the central launch plan.

Citi said Sinopec’s interim results were better than expected. The bank pointed out that if the price of oil goes back and local inflation starts to fall back, the central government is likely to introduce a more open pricing system for gasoline and diesel. The bank gives Sinopec a "buy" rating with a target price of HK$10.5.