Core Tip : Financial reform has entered the stage of capitalization of capital prices, adjustment of unbalanced financial structure, and breaking the monopoly of inclusive finance. There has been substantial progress in the past 2013 and it is expected to continue to break the ice in the next 2014.
Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the financial reforms of “going stop and stop†have once again been highly anticipated by the market.
On the afternoon of January 22, 2014, the first public appearance of the comprehensive deepening reform leading group led by Xi Jinping was divided into six special groups, one of which was the Economic System and Ecological Civilization System Reform Group. The financial reforms under the economic reforms have a top-level design. Prior to this, on November 15, 2013, the “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening Reform of Some Major Issues†was announced, which clearly stated that it was necessary to “improve the financial market system†and successively introduced relevant reform measures.
Nowadays, financial reform has entered the stage of capitalization of capital prices, adjustment of unbalanced financial structure, and breaking the monopoly of inclusive finance. Interest rate marketization, deposit insurance system, market-oriented operation reform of insurance funds, the liberalization of private banks, and the regulation of shadow banking have made substantial progress in the past 2013 and are expected to continue in the next 2014. Breaking the ice.
Marketization of capital prices
Further marketization has become the core reform direction proposed by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. The market has further risen to a “decisive role†in resource allocation, and interest rates and exchange rates are the most important capital prices. Industry insiders expect that interest rate and exchange rate marketization will accelerate. The possibility of advancement is greater.
As far as interest rate liberalization is concerned, from the very beginning of the cancellation of the interbank lending rate ceiling, and then to the full liberalization of the lending rate, although only the deposit rate has been fully liberalized, there are still a series of supporting systems. Need to improve, the central bank's thinking is gradually clear.
In Zhou Xiaochuan's interpretation of financial reform, he proposed a three-step approach: first, to enhance the financial institution's independent pricing ability on the asset side, launch the loan base interest rate, introduce interbank deposit receipts on the debt side, and expand the marketization pricing range of liabilities; Improve the market-based interest rate system and improve the central bank's regulation and transmission capacity; the final is to fully complete the interest rate marketization.
At present, the Interim Measures for the Management of Interbank Deposits has been issued. The supporting policies for the deposit insurance system are also being formulated. The progress of interest rate marketization may exceed expectations.
The marketization of exchange rates includes the further marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism and the gradual liberalization of capital controls. Since the exchange reform, the appreciation of the renminbi has been quite considerable, improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, expanding the two-way floating range of the RMB exchange rate, and finally gradually realizing the convertibility under the capital account and promoting the internationalization of the RMB.
The preparations for the deposit insurance system arising from the interest rate marketization process are basically ready. The vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Qi Qingmin, said publicly at the meeting not long ago that "the future will let the market speak and let the capital speak. If the commercial bank finally fails to meet its debts, it will withdraw." The CBRC is preparing to speed up the introduction of the bankruptcy regulations.
The establishment of a deposit insurance system and allowing bank bankruptcy has become the consensus of the financial academic circle. Many scholars believe that this is one of the most important reforms of the Chinese financial system. In China, the state has always acted as the last guarantor of financial institutions, and implemented the implicit deposit insurance system, which is why the people have a natural trust in the bank. However, this does not mean that financial institutions do not have operational crises or operational risks, nor does it mean that bank deposits are safe.
At present, the central bank's interest rate regulation framework has not yet been fully established, the interest rate transmission mechanism is not smooth enough, and the market benchmark interest rate system is still not perfect, especially the lower limit of deposit interest rates has not been liberalized. Once the interest rate is marketized, the market-based pricing of bank deposit interest rates will cause financial institutions to lose excessive protection. The profit margin of China's banking industry will be greatly reduced. A few commercial banks may face the risk of bankruptcy liquidation. The rise of financial risks will inevitably require the establishment of matching. The financial security mechanism, the deposit insurance system came into being.
From the interest rate marketization reform to the promotion of the deposit insurance system, the ultimate goal is to guide the financial industry into full market competition, improve the marketization and efficiency of capital allocation, and thus make the entire financial market healthy and vigorous development.
In the marketization of capital prices, the marketization of insurance funds is also at the forefront of reform. Since 2012, the regulatory agencies have implemented a series of market-oriented reform policies for insurance funds, which have greatly expanded the scope of investment in insurance assets and increased the proportion of investment, making insurance companies the least restrictive of investment in the capital market and the most thorough marketization. Financial institutions.
Since entering 2014, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has continued to push for a new capital policy, constantly breaking through the boundaries of silver, securities, letters and insurance. The determination of insurance funds to seize the "leading role" in the era of pan-funded management has become increasingly prominent, and this is also the The response of the financial reform of the Plenary Session. Xu Gaolin, an associate professor at the School of Insurance of the University of International Business and Economics, said that the market-oriented reform of the use of insurance funds by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has liberalized restrictions on investment channels and implemented the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee to enhance market autonomy and avoid unnecessary The requirements of administrative intervention.
In general, the basic thinking of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission on the reform of the insurance fund utilization system is to simplify the administration of power, to grasp the big and let go, to adopt a large-scale proportional management that is generally applicable internationally, and to eliminate the proportional restrictions of some specific investment varieties. Investment capacity and risk control ability to invest independently, and to release insurance funds, making the marketization of capital in the “pan-capital management era†more intense.
Financial reform breaks monopoly and adjusts structure
A very clear theme of financial reform in 2013 was to break the monopoly and adjust the unbalanced financial structure. At the same time, this was also the direction set by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.
After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the establishment of private banks once again ushered in a breakthrough. The China Banking Regulatory Commission issued relevant policies to allow private capital to initiate the establishment of financial institutions such as small and medium-sized banks.
In the National Banking Regulatory Work Conference held in January 2014, Shang Fulin, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, once again stated that it is necessary to broaden the channels and methods for private capital to enter the banking industry. The pilot will be the first to pilot three to five pilots, and the mature one will set up one. Shang Fulin said, "We must guide private capital to participate in the restructuring and restructuring of existing banking financial institutions. We will try to set up a banking financial institution with pure private capital to set up its own risk. We will do a good job in the design of the pilot system and emphasize the qualifications of the promoters. Implement a limited license, adhere to prudential supervision standards, and establish risk disposal arrangements."
This is a further refinement and advancement made after the release of the ten financial articles on July 1, 2013. At that time, it was proposed to “try only private capital to initiate the establishment of private banks at their own risk.â€
In fact, private capital participation banks have become more common. China has about 3,000 banking financial institutions, of which only 1% of national large and medium-sized banks account for about 90% of rural financial institutions. In regional banks, private capital accounts for more than 50% of the share capital.
However, private banks have been slow to progress since their inception, mainly because the relevant supporting systems have not yet been established. At present, it is necessary to wait for the deposit insurance system and the bankruptcy of commercial banks to complete the relevant laws and regulations. Therefore, at present, the liberalization of private banks is only limited. Although the threshold for entry is reduced, the regulatory authorities still have strict standards on the qualifications of sponsors, especially in terms of risk control and integrity. Therefore, it can only be as Shang Fulin. As said, "a mature family has set up a family."
In the future, with the improvement of relevant supporting systems, private banks are also expected to usher in a blooming situation. Deng Mao, an analyst with Dongguan Securities, believes that “there will be an increase of 100 in the future. According to the estimated average capital of the small banking financial institutions, the annual average capital of 800 million yuan is estimated. The annual growth rate of the banking industry’s assets will remain at 5%, to 2018. At the end of the year, the private banking market share can reach 2%."
Therefore, the private market has gradually expanded its market share, which will bring a lot of impact and competition to the banking industry, which has long enjoyed monopoly treatment. It will also break the current low level of financial services and insufficient supply of financial services. Situation.
On the issue of resolving the current imbalance in financial structure, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee also made breakthroughs. As one of the representative issues of financial structure imbalance, the Bank of China and the State Council issued normative policies.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission clearly pointed out at the supervisory work meeting held in January 2014 that the most urgent tasks in the current reform tasks are two, namely, the financial management business and the reform of the inter-bank business governance system. Previously, in December 2013, the State Council also issued a No. 107 document to the bank, clearly defining the shadow banking, and requiring various financial institutions to separately manage the wealth management business and establish a separate financial management organization system.
Under the guidance of the central government to establish a comprehensive deepening reform leadership group, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also established a banking reform leading group, and the chairman, Shang Fulin, as the team leader, intends to promote a number of tasks including financial management and inter-bank business reform.
The Banking Regulatory Commission's approach is to, in the area of ​​wealth management business, intends to allow commercial banks to carry out the reform of the line business department system, and establish the wealth management department to be managed by the head office; in the interbank business, the CBRC requires the business of the same industry to go to the head office to carry out the reform of the franchise system. Other departments no longer operate, and branches cannot do asset transfer, sell repurchase, buy resale equivalent business.
For shadow banking, this kind of cancer in China's banking industry, it is not easy to cut off in one step. However, industry experts said that the strict control of shadow banking by the regulatory authorities is the general trend. Moreover, in the next 2014, the regulatory authorities may issue other regulatory rules for the shadow banking business. This indicates that the shadow banking will be on the verge of survival and the future of financial imbalances is expected to improve.
Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the financial reforms of “going stop and stop†have once again been highly anticipated by the market.
On the afternoon of January 22, 2014, the first public appearance of the comprehensive deepening reform leading group led by Xi Jinping was divided into six special groups, one of which was the Economic System and Ecological Civilization System Reform Group. The financial reforms under the economic reforms have a top-level design. Prior to this, on November 15, 2013, the “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening Reform of Some Major Issues†was announced, which clearly stated that it was necessary to “improve the financial market system†and successively introduced relevant reform measures.
Nowadays, financial reform has entered the stage of capitalization of capital prices, adjustment of unbalanced financial structure, and breaking the monopoly of inclusive finance. Interest rate marketization, deposit insurance system, market-oriented operation reform of insurance funds, the liberalization of private banks, and the regulation of shadow banking have made substantial progress in the past 2013 and are expected to continue in the next 2014. Breaking the ice.
Marketization of capital prices
Further marketization has become the core reform direction proposed by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. The market has further risen to a “decisive role†in resource allocation, and interest rates and exchange rates are the most important capital prices. Industry insiders expect that interest rate and exchange rate marketization will accelerate. The possibility of advancement is greater.
As far as interest rate liberalization is concerned, from the very beginning of the cancellation of the interbank lending rate ceiling, and then to the full liberalization of the lending rate, although only the deposit rate has been fully liberalized, there are still a series of supporting systems. Need to improve, the central bank's thinking is gradually clear.
In Zhou Xiaochuan's interpretation of financial reform, he proposed a three-step approach: first, to enhance the financial institution's independent pricing ability on the asset side, launch the loan base interest rate, introduce interbank deposit receipts on the debt side, and expand the marketization pricing range of liabilities; Improve the market-based interest rate system and improve the central bank's regulation and transmission capacity; the final is to fully complete the interest rate marketization.
At present, the Interim Measures for the Management of Interbank Deposits has been issued. The supporting policies for the deposit insurance system are also being formulated. The progress of interest rate marketization may exceed expectations.
The marketization of exchange rates includes the further marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism and the gradual liberalization of capital controls. Since the exchange reform, the appreciation of the renminbi has been quite considerable, improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, expanding the two-way floating range of the RMB exchange rate, and finally gradually realizing the convertibility under the capital account and promoting the internationalization of the RMB.
The preparations for the deposit insurance system arising from the interest rate marketization process are basically ready. The vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Qi Qingmin, said publicly at the meeting not long ago that "the future will let the market speak and let the capital speak. If the commercial bank finally fails to meet its debts, it will withdraw." The CBRC is preparing to speed up the introduction of the bankruptcy regulations.
The establishment of a deposit insurance system and allowing bank bankruptcy has become the consensus of the financial academic circle. Many scholars believe that this is one of the most important reforms of the Chinese financial system. In China, the state has always acted as the last guarantor of financial institutions, and implemented the implicit deposit insurance system, which is why the people have a natural trust in the bank. However, this does not mean that financial institutions do not have operational crises or operational risks, nor does it mean that bank deposits are safe.
At present, the central bank's interest rate regulation framework has not yet been fully established, the interest rate transmission mechanism is not smooth enough, and the market benchmark interest rate system is still not perfect, especially the lower limit of deposit interest rates has not been liberalized. Once the interest rate is marketized, the market-based pricing of bank deposit interest rates will cause financial institutions to lose excessive protection. The profit margin of China's banking industry will be greatly reduced. A few commercial banks may face the risk of bankruptcy liquidation. The rise of financial risks will inevitably require the establishment of matching. The financial security mechanism, the deposit insurance system came into being.
From the interest rate marketization reform to the promotion of the deposit insurance system, the ultimate goal is to guide the financial industry into full market competition, improve the marketization and efficiency of capital allocation, and thus make the entire financial market healthy and vigorous development.
In the marketization of capital prices, the marketization of insurance funds is also at the forefront of reform. Since 2012, the regulatory agencies have implemented a series of market-oriented reform policies for insurance funds, which have greatly expanded the scope of investment in insurance assets and increased the proportion of investment, making insurance companies the least restrictive of investment in the capital market and the most thorough marketization. Financial institutions.
Since entering 2014, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has continued to push for a new capital policy, constantly breaking through the boundaries of silver, securities, letters and insurance. The determination of insurance funds to seize the "leading role" in the era of pan-funded management has become increasingly prominent, and this is also the The response of the financial reform of the Plenary Session. Xu Gaolin, an associate professor at the School of Insurance of the University of International Business and Economics, said that the market-oriented reform of the use of insurance funds by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has liberalized restrictions on investment channels and implemented the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee to enhance market autonomy and avoid unnecessary The requirements of administrative intervention.
In general, the basic thinking of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission on the reform of the insurance fund utilization system is to simplify the administration of power, to grasp the big and let go, to adopt a large-scale proportional management that is generally applicable internationally, and to eliminate the proportional restrictions of some specific investment varieties. Investment capacity and risk control ability to invest independently, and to release insurance funds, making the marketization of capital in the “pan-capital management era†more intense.
Financial reform breaks monopoly and adjusts structure
A very clear theme of financial reform in 2013 was to break the monopoly and adjust the unbalanced financial structure. At the same time, this was also the direction set by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.
After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the establishment of private banks once again ushered in a breakthrough. The China Banking Regulatory Commission issued relevant policies to allow private capital to initiate the establishment of financial institutions such as small and medium-sized banks.
In the National Banking Regulatory Work Conference held in January 2014, Shang Fulin, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, once again stated that it is necessary to broaden the channels and methods for private capital to enter the banking industry. The pilot will be the first to pilot three to five pilots, and the mature one will set up one. Shang Fulin said, "We must guide private capital to participate in the restructuring and restructuring of existing banking financial institutions. We will try to set up a banking financial institution with pure private capital to set up its own risk. We will do a good job in the design of the pilot system and emphasize the qualifications of the promoters. Implement a limited license, adhere to prudential supervision standards, and establish risk disposal arrangements."
This is a further refinement and advancement made after the release of the ten financial articles on July 1, 2013. At that time, it was proposed to “try only private capital to initiate the establishment of private banks at their own risk.â€
In fact, private capital participation banks have become more common. China has about 3,000 banking financial institutions, of which only 1% of national large and medium-sized banks account for about 90% of rural financial institutions. In regional banks, private capital accounts for more than 50% of the share capital.
However, private banks have been slow to progress since their inception, mainly because the relevant supporting systems have not yet been established. At present, it is necessary to wait for the deposit insurance system and the bankruptcy of commercial banks to complete the relevant laws and regulations. Therefore, at present, the liberalization of private banks is only limited. Although the threshold for entry is reduced, the regulatory authorities still have strict standards on the qualifications of sponsors, especially in terms of risk control and integrity. Therefore, it can only be as Shang Fulin. As said, "a mature family has set up a family."
In the future, with the improvement of relevant supporting systems, private banks are also expected to usher in a blooming situation. Deng Mao, an analyst with Dongguan Securities, believes that “there will be an increase of 100 in the future. According to the estimated average capital of the small banking financial institutions, the annual average capital of 800 million yuan is estimated. The annual growth rate of the banking industry’s assets will remain at 5%, to 2018. At the end of the year, the private banking market share can reach 2%."
Therefore, the private market has gradually expanded its market share, which will bring a lot of impact and competition to the banking industry, which has long enjoyed monopoly treatment. It will also break the current low level of financial services and insufficient supply of financial services. Situation.
On the issue of resolving the current imbalance in financial structure, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee also made breakthroughs. As one of the representative issues of financial structure imbalance, the Bank of China and the State Council issued normative policies.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission clearly pointed out at the supervisory work meeting held in January 2014 that the most urgent tasks in the current reform tasks are two, namely, the financial management business and the reform of the inter-bank business governance system. Previously, in December 2013, the State Council also issued a No. 107 document to the bank, clearly defining the shadow banking, and requiring various financial institutions to separately manage the wealth management business and establish a separate financial management organization system.
Under the guidance of the central government to establish a comprehensive deepening reform leadership group, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also established a banking reform leading group, and the chairman, Shang Fulin, as the team leader, intends to promote a number of tasks including financial management and inter-bank business reform.
The Banking Regulatory Commission's approach is to, in the area of ​​wealth management business, intends to allow commercial banks to carry out the reform of the line business department system, and establish the wealth management department to be managed by the head office; in the interbank business, the CBRC requires the business of the same industry to go to the head office to carry out the reform of the franchise system. Other departments no longer operate, and branches cannot do asset transfer, sell repurchase, buy resale equivalent business.
For shadow banking, this kind of cancer in China's banking industry, it is not easy to cut off in one step. However, industry experts said that the strict control of shadow banking by the regulatory authorities is the general trend. Moreover, in the next 2014, the regulatory authorities may issue other regulatory rules for the shadow banking business. This indicates that the shadow banking will be on the verge of survival and the future of financial imbalances is expected to improve.
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