Abstract According to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.5% in January 2014, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. On the same day, the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced data showing that...
According to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.5% in January 2014, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. On the same day, the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the PMI index of the steel industry in January was 40.7%, a sharp drop of 7 percentage points from the previous month, and the fifth consecutive month was below the 50% line. . It is worth mentioning that the index hit a new low since September 2012.
Analysts pointed out that mainly due to the market downturn and the Spring Festival factor, the various business activities of steel companies contracted sharply in January, and the domestic steel market as a whole showed a trend of “prices falling togetherâ€.
Crude steel production continues to fall
In January, the sub-indicator data of the PMI index of the steel industry showed that the production index was 35.3%, down 11.8 percentage points from the previous month, and it was in the contraction interval for four consecutive months, and fell to the lowest point since December 2008; the purchase volume index It was 40.9%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous month. It is reported that the index has been below 50% for three consecutive months; while the raw material inventory index has returned to the contraction range, down 5.1 percentage points from last month to 49.6%.
Analysts believe that from the changes in the three sub-indices, under the combined effect of market reversal mechanism and environmental protection policy, it is expected that steel production will remain at a low level in the later period.
According to the crude steel production data previously released by the Bureau of Statistics, domestic crude steel output has continued to decline since the fourth quarter of last year. The average daily crude steel output in December fell to 2.01 million tons, a sharp drop from the highest daily production level of 2.208 million tons in February. And the lowest level of Nissan since 2013.
Demand is expected to improve after demand falls to "freezing point"
It is worth mentioning that in the steel industry PMI index sub-index in January, the new order index was 33.5%, a sharp drop of 12.1 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest point since September 2012, that is, fell to 17 months. Low point.
Analysts said that the index has been in the contraction range of less than 50% for five consecutive months, "showing that market demand has fallen to freezing point due to market downturn and seasonal factors."
According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily sales volume of 86 large and medium-sized steel enterprises in the first half of January was 1.28 million tons, down 3.48% from the first ten days of December 2013.
On the other hand, in the sub-index, the finished goods inventory index returned to the expansion range in January after being in the contraction interval for three consecutive months, which was 52.4%, which was 4.9 percentage points higher than that of December last year and became 11 sub-indices. The only index that has risen.
Analysts believe that the index reflects the pressure on steel companies' contract organizations in the face of sluggish terminal demand and unfair orders from steel traders. He predicted that the current steel plant resource pressure is still relatively large, and the inventory backlog is obvious. If the capital situation continues to be tight in the later period, it may trigger a new wave of destocking behavior of steel mills, and this will continue to increase social stocks, and the supply pressure of the market will further increase. .
According to its introduction, due to factors such as shrinking demand, tight capital and weak expectations, domestic steel prices continued to decline in January at the end of 2013. Affected by the Spring Festival, the downstream construction sites were suspended in January, and the real consumption of steel continued to shrink. At the same time, in the price decline channel, the demand for stocks was weaker than expected, which led to a more obvious decline in overall demand, which further constrained steel prices.
But analysts also said that in general, after the Spring Festival every year, the spot demand for steel products will obviously improve, and this year is no exception. After the Spring Festival, as the construction starts to increase and the funds face to improve, the real demand of the market will gradually enlarge, and the market will have a certain turn.
According to its analysis, under the suppression of environmental protection and the elimination of backward production capacity, the growth rate of steel production will be effectively curbed; in addition, the current market price has already fallen to a low level, and there is not much room for further decline in the later period, according to the “opening door†after the previous business festival. In practice, the market has a strong psychological pull; after the Lantern Festival, enterprises will start construction one after another, and the procurement demand for normal production will be significantly restored. To this end, the steel market is expected to stabilize and pick up after the holiday. In February, the overall domestic steel prices will be mainly stabilized in small and medium-sized consolidation.
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