According to the “One Belt and One Road†strategic concept and the rapid development of China’s urbanization, China’s rail vehicle manufacturing industry has entered an unprecedented period of sustained high growth, with a compound annual growth rate of up to 30% by 2030. . Deep processing of car body aluminum profiles is a major feature of China's aluminum processing industry, which can promote the application of aluminum materials, accelerate waste aluminum recycling, reduce waste transportation costs, reduce vehicle manufacturing costs, and bring considerable economic benefits to enterprises. Under the leadership of the “Belt and Road†national strategy, the construction of track lines, especially high-speed rail lines, has become a pioneer. China's aluminum processing industry should strengthen its “going out†efforts with this golden, robust economy and strive to become bigger and stronger in the world.
Japan was the first country in the world to build a commercial high-speed railway. On October 1, 1964, the Tokaido Shinkansen was officially opened to traffic at a speed of 210km/h, and the body was made of 5083 and 6061 alloys. The use of aluminum alloy for the manufacture of railcar bodies was the first of its kind in Japan. In 1962, the Japanese Sanyo Electrification Railway used the 5083 and 6061 aluminum alloys instead of carbon steel for the first time to reduce vehicle mass. In 2008, China's first high-speed railway, the Beijing-Tianjin High-Speed ​​Railway, was put into operation. The vehicle and front end were all aluminum. The so-called all-aluminum is that under the existing technical conditions, all parts that can be made of aluminum alloy instead of other materials are aluminum, and at the same time economically advantageous. By 2015, China's high-speed railways will have a mileage of 15,000 km, which will be the longest in the world, and will rank top in the world in terms of technology and experience in the manufacture of equipment, road construction, and operation and management.
Now, all high-speed rail vehicles and magnetic levitation vehicles with speeds greater than 200km/h have all been aluminized, and the aluminization rates of other rail vehicle bodies have also exceeded 40%, but Japan's higher ones have reached 50%. Rail vehicles are a huge family, including: high-speed railways, medium- and low-speed magnetic levitation lines, subways, elevated city rails, city rails, intercity high-speed, urban monorails, and magnetic levitation vehicles. Maglev vehicles must be aluminum regardless of speed; there are two types of monorail vehicles: suspended and ride-away.
Urban rapid rail transit refers to passenger rail transit lines within the metropolitan area of ​​a large city, serving the urban and suburban areas (such as the Beijing Urban Railway Pinggu Line, 67.6 km long), central cities and satellite cities, and key towns, etc. The service scope is generally not more than 100km, in the broad sense, it belongs to the category of urban rail transit, but its station distance is much longer than that of a subway in the general city, usually 2km~5km, and only about 1km of the general subway in the city. The subway can meet the requirements of passengers with a travel radius of ≤ 50km. The inter-city and high-speed rail services are more than 100km to several thousand km. The transport of 50km to 100km is borne by the city's fast track, and is known as the “all-around†municipal rapid-rail vehicle. The first such fast track vehicle was put into trial operation at the CNPC Changchun Bus Production Base in 2015 (see the figure). Its body is made of carbon fiber composite material and aluminum alloy. It is the first time that China has used composite materials to manufacture rail vehicles. The body has achieved better weight reduction. However, the price of composite materials is higher than that of aluminum alloys. The manufacturing process and maintenance of parts and components are also more difficult than aluminum alloys. The recovery of scrap parts and whole body can hardly be carried out. The recovery rate of aluminum alloy scraps can reach 95% or more.
Aluminum for passenger rail transit enters a period of sustained high growth
Since 2014, China's economic development has entered a period of new normality, that is to say, it is advancing into the mid-high speed era. However, it is still at a high speed stage for the rail transit industry, and at least until 2030. During this period, with the development of rail transit, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of its equipment manufacturing aluminum materials should be 22%. Above, this growth can be divided into two stages, which is 25% from 2014 to 2022, and 18% from 2023 to 2030. The driving force for the continuous high-speed development of aluminum for driving rail transit comes from two engines: the implementation of the “One Belt and One Road†strategy; the introduction of the domestic high-speed railway network into operation and the construction of new lines, and the pull of the construction of urban rail transit.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's high-speed rail is still at the stage of peak construction. At the same time, the construction of inter-city railways centered on large regional cities has also entered a high-speed phase. The past 10 years have been the rapid development of China's high-speed rail transportation for 10 years. The "four vertical and four horizontal" high-speed railway lines have been formed. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan" of the railway, by 2020, the national railway operating mileage will reach 140,000 km. 150,000 km, including 50,000 to 60,000 km of high-speed railways, it is expected that the total mileage of high-speed railways during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period will reach 33,000 km, which is 1.0625 more than 16,000 km at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. High-speed railway network skeleton. However, the construction of domestic high-speed rail is still in full swing. For example, the 5700-km-long coastal high-speed rail is preparing for the start of construction. From Dalian, it enters the world's longest Bohai Bay Tunnel, climbs out of Yantai, and glide along the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea at a high speed of 350 km/h. After arriving at Hai’an, Guangdong, it entered the Qiongzhou Strait underwater tunnel, climbed to the ground and traveled south along the east side of Hainan Island, pointing to the terminal station Sanya, and all the way through 11 provinces and cities.
At present, there are 38 rail transit routes in China that have been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. By the end of 2014, 22 cities in China had completed and operated 101 urban rail transit lines with a total length of 3,155 km. According to the planning of inter-city rail routes in all provinces and cities across the country, it is estimated that by 2030, approximately 20,000 km of completed operating lines will be built. The rapid development of domestic rail transportation has provided a broad space for the development of automotive aluminum. In 2014, the domestic consumption of aluminum extrusion materials in rail transit was about 160 kt. In 2016, it will reach 220 kt, and in 2020 it may exceed 330 kt. At the same time, the construction will focus on the Midwest, and 80% of the investment will be invested in high-speed rail lines in the central and western regions. The important ones are the Guzhou-Chongqing Railway Guzhou Branch Line, the Lanxin Second Double Line, the Gui-Guang Railway, the Chengmian-Lok ​​Passenger Specialization, and the Changkun Passenger-Specialized Guiyang Expressway. East section. The huge investment in rail transit construction in the western region will provide a highly potential consumer market for aluminum materials for vehicles and construction of railway facilities along the railway lines.
Under the leadership of the “Belt and Road†national war preparations, the construction of track lines, especially high-speed rail lines, is the vanguard of going global. The "One Belt and One Road" strategic concept will link East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Europe, East Africa and 65 countries in the South. The total population of the region exceeds 4.4 billion and the total economic output in 2013 was more than US$21.3 trillion, accounting for 63% and nearly 30% of the world respectively. It is the emerging world economy with the largest span and the most extensive coverage. There are three high-speed rails: one for the Eurasian high-speed rail, the other for the Central Asia high-speed rail, and the third for the (new) Pan-Asian high-speed rail.
The high-speed railway in Central Asia coincides with the ancient legendary "Silk Road," and follows its traces. It leaves Xinjiang and travels through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian countries. It passes Iran, Turkey, and finally Germany. The construction of this high-speed rail is for the purpose of fast oil transportation.
The Eurasian high-speed rail line departs from London via Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and Kiev. After Moscow, it splits into two branches. One goes to Kazakhstan and the other goes through vast Siberia. It goes straight to Khabarovsk and then enters Manchuria, China. .
The (new) Pan-Asian high-speed rail is a high-speed rail network covering the Southeast, starting from Kunming, passing through Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, etc., and finally arriving in Singapore, while the westward section refers directly to India. Thailand has already completed the construction of two railways and plans to invest 741.4 billion baht, or approximately 143 billion yuan, to start construction this year and to connect with China through Laos. The Pan-Asia High Speed ​​Rail has to go through Thailand after going through three projects. It is currently investing in China through the Laos’s midline. It broke ground in 2014 and can reach Russia through the Beijing-Kazakhstan oyster high-speed rail.
China has carried out exploration and planning for these high-speed rail lines in Central Asia and the Pan-Asian region. Now it is talking about one country and one country. The Chinese will provide capital and technology to replace local resources with high-speed rail repairs, such as oil and gas and mineral products in Central Asia. Wait. The construction of these three major international avenues has significant strategic significance in foreign countries and its implications for internal economic development.
Its external strategic significance: It can ease the threat of water security in the Malacca Strait under the dispute over the South China Sea. It can directly connect with Chittagong, Calcutta, etc. on the coast of the Indian Ocean through a high-speed rail to bring back various resources in a more convenient and safe manner. The cost is also higher. Second, strengthen trade and economic and cultural and scientific and technological exchanges between Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, Kunming and other major cities in Southeast Asia and South Asia; thirdly, through the Northeast High-speed Rail network and Russia's Far East region, further strengthen the cooperation with the Japan Sea. Economic and trade exchanges and cooperation in the economic circle; Fourth, to achieve national strategic investment abroad, through the construction of the Pan-Asian high-speed rail network, exporting high-speed rail technology to participate in the construction of major transport infrastructure in neighboring countries, and drive development and investment in areas along the railway line.
The internal development has a huge impact: First, Beijing-Kunming and Beijing-Shenyang high-speed railways can link the western economy with the northeast economic sector, making our country’s development strategy shift from the coastal areas to the inland areas, following the coastal, along the river, and the Beijing-Guangzhou. Another important growth area; Second, the two high-speed rail lines are lined with Beijing and seven provincial capitals, and include some old industrial bases. In the future, China will develop pillar industries such as the military industry, large-scale equipment manufacturing, precision instruments and automation. The equipment industry and strategic emerging industries all have outstanding advantages. The third is through the new Pan-Asian high-speed rail and the existing “four vertical and four horizontal†high-speed rail network; and the central cities of the exchange area are Shenyang, Taiyuan, Xi’an and Chengdu. Kunming can exert greater regional radiation influence; it can further enhance the integrated hub status and portal radiation influence of central cities such as Harbin and Kunming. The construction of these high-speed rail projects will lead to a substantial increase in aluminum demand, and the total demand before 2025 can reach more than 2000 kt.
Now is the golden opportunity for Chinese companies to go global. They should take advantage of the “One Belt and One Roadâ€, which is a very strong and unstoppable force, and step up efforts to export high-end equipment, high-end processing materials—semi-finished products and all kinds of exportable products. Go and return the energy and resources we need, and cooperate and benefit each other. Now is the best time for companies that have grown bigger and stronger in the country to go global. Since the beginning of the new century, China's non-ferrous metals industries such as China Minmetals Corporation, China Nonferrous Metals Corporation, China Aluminum Corporation, Enfa Corporation, Nanshan Aluminum Corporation, Weiqiao Aluminum Corporation, Zhongwang Group, etc. have been out of the country. "We have done a lot of work and achieved considerable success. We hope that they will continue to advance and achieve even greater achievements. It will be just a matter of time to become a strong company for multinational corporations.
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