Abstract There are indications that the impact of the ban on raw ore exports from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of laterite nickel ore, on nickel supply was not as great as expected. Nickel prices fell 12% this quarter and officially entered a bear market. As of the close of September 29, LME Nickel fell 2.5% this quarter...
As there are indications, the impact of the ban on raw ore exports from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of laterite nickel ore, on nickel supply was not as great as expected. Nickel prices fell 12% this quarter and officially entered the bear market. As of the close of September 29, LME Nickel fell 2.5%, and the cumulative decline in this quarter reached 12%. Indonesia issued a ban in January this year to limit the export of raw ore, so that nickel prices rose to a new high of more than two years. But nickel prices have since fallen, and as Credit Suisse and Citi analysts point out, supply shortages are not as big as expected. LME nickel stocks returned to their highest level in 1979.
Tetsu Emori, fund manager of Astmax Asset Management, said that after overreacting the Indonesian ore export ban, the market began to squeeze the nickel price bubble due to the excessive supply of refined nickel and the slowdown in Chinese demand.
“Only when the market sees a real supply shortage, nickel prices will rise.â€
LME Nickel closed below $16,800 on the 29th, retreating 20% ​​from the high of $21,000 recorded on May 13, indicating that the nickel market has entered a bear market.
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 26th, LME nickel stocks have risen to 347,970 tons. Citi analysts said that the rise in LME stocks was mainly due to China's peak in net exports of refined nickel in August.
According to Beijing Antaike, an industry research and consulting organization, China's nickel pig iron is a low-cost alternative to traditional refined nickel. China's nickel pig iron output is expected to reach 450,000 tons this year, exceeding expectations.
According to China Customs data, China's nickel ore imports in August increased by 6.8% to 542 tons, which is the first increase since Indonesia issued a ban on raw ore exports. The Philippines replaced Indonesia as the largest supplier of nickel ore in China this year, and its exports to China in August rose by 6.4% to an all-time high of 533 tons.
Credit Suisse said in a report released on the 23rd that the Indonesian raw ore export ban has not been cancelled, but the market's nickel and nickel mines are more than we expected. Credit Suisse lowered its nickel price forecast for the next six months, arguing that nickel will rise to a peak of $24,000 in December 2015.
In order to promote investment in the domestic metal processing industry, Indonesia has completely banned the export of metal ore from January this year. The ore needs to be exported after being smelted and processed in Indonesia. The Philippines seems to be emulating Indonesia, and at least three members of the Philippine Congress have proposed a ban on raw ore exports.
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