The "electricity shortage" is due to the excessive growth of high-energy-consuming industries.

As the temperature continues to rise, the power shortage that was once eased has resurfaced. State Grid Corporation of China predicts that the Sanhua (North China, East China, Central China) power shortage will spread from this summer to the present and winter this year to 2012 and even 2013.

The beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan, electricity shortage has become a hot topic. It is of course necessary to maintain the price of electricity and electricity, but we may have to pay more attention to the deep problems behind the appearance of electricity shortages.

The National Development and Reform Commission released: In the first four months of this year, the country’s GDP grew by 9.6%, while electricity increased by 12.6%, and the power elasticity coefficient reached 1.32. It can be seen that, except in areas where hydropower is partially caused by temporary drought due to drought at the beginning of the year, There is a global shortage of electricity. So where does the power shortage come from?

The reason is that the growth of high-energy-consuming industries is too high. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rates of crude steel, coke, cement and steel were 13.3%, 29.8%, 23.7% and 17.4%, respectively, and the production capacity reached a record high. Under such circumstances, if we continue to satisfy the appetites of these electric tigers and continue to whip up electric cattle, under the current power structure dominated by thermal power in China, it will only lead to more coal. The coal experts have already pointed out that only half of the 3 billion tons of raw coal produced in China each meet the standards of safe, efficient, and environmentally friendly scientific production. The actual economic operation has to tolerate a certain amount of non-scientific production capacity, but excessively high unscientific production capacity will only lead to higher environmental costs, waste of resources and frequent mining accidents. This is a mode of energy supply and demand that meets the need for rapid growth with extensive energy supply. We will simply call it the A model. Obviously, this is an unsustainable pattern of supply and demand.

Changing energy supply and demand patterns is an important part of transforming the economic development model. Insisting on the theme of scientific development, accelerating the transformation of economic development methods as the main line, and planning for future development, the energy supply and demand pattern must be gradually transformed from the aforementioned A model to a new supply and demand model that satisfies rational demand with scientific supply, which can be abbreviated as B. mode. Let us analyze the reasonable demand and scientific supply.

Taking cement as an example to talk about reasonable demand: From 2000 to 2010, China's annual cement output increased from 600 million tons to 1.84 billion tons, accounting for nearly 60% of the world's total cement output (steel, iron and other high-energy-consuming industries similar). It is true that fast-developing China needs large-scale infrastructure, requires a lot of cement, and so on. However, according to calculations by experts, the existing production capacity is sufficient to meet the completion of a total of 2.5 billion to 3 billion square meters of building completion area, 100,000 kilometers of highways, 7,000 kilometers of highways, 6,000 kilometers of railways, 1,500 kilometers of high-speed railways, and 20 new conversions each year. The airport has exceeded the reasonable scale of housing and various necessary social infrastructure.

Objectively, these high-energy-consuming industries have become saturated, and artificially increasing their growth will only further tighten the constraints on resources and the environment, while high-rise comparison projects, face projects, and projects that have neither scientific nor technological content will benefit the people. High-end speculative construction, golf courses, etc., are inherently unreasonable demands that should be suppressed.

Look at a macro-level data: In 2010, China's GDP was 9.5% of the world's total, but the total energy consumption already accounted for 19.5% of the world's total energy consumption. The energy consumption per unit of GDP has doubled the world average and is 4.9 of Japan's. Times. It is normal for China's energy consumption per unit of GDP to be moderately high at the stage of rapid industrialization. However, it is clearly beyond this reasonable level that there are industrial structure problems and energy utilization efficiency.

As regards scientific supply, it means: adhere to the concept of scientific coal production capacity, while reducing scientific production capacity, reducing the proportion of non-scientific production capacity; relying on scientific and technological progress, improving energy efficiency, and developing non-fossil energy and natural gas (including unconventional natural gas), We will improve the structure, protect the environment, and respond to climate change, and gradually build a clean, efficient, safe, and diverse modern energy system.

Today's China is facing a historic transformation and development. In order to realize this beautiful transformation including the transformation of energy supply and demand patterns, we must reverse the expansion of high-investment and high-energy-consuming industries to maintain the momentum of rapid GDP growth, and curb the impulse to scale up. To this end, it is necessary to truly understand the profound meaning of the ideological shift in the development mode, to adjust the performance evaluation system from the administrative point of view, to introduce economically a policy that embodies the value of factors, and to use the market to promote transformation and development.

The electric power shortage is to a certain extent the use of electric power for high-energy-consuming electric tigers. Adjusting the industrial structure and changing the energy supply and demand pattern are the ultimate solutions. Energy conservation is a kind of development and it is the cultivation of new economic growth points and new development methods. Energy-saving international leadership must and must be one of the most prominent features of China’s modernization.

Washers

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