The “Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†issued by the State Council recently pointed out that by 2015 China’s total installed photovoltaic power generation capacity should reach 35 million kilowatts (35 GW) or more, compared to the “12th Five-Year Plan†for the development of solar power generation last year. The target of 20 million kilowatts determined is 75% higher. The industry is happy about the country's upgrading of installed capacity. It also raises some questions. What is the basis for the establishment of the 35GW target?
What is the basis for the 1.35 GW goal setting?
The “Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†issued by the State Council recently pointed out that by 2015 China’s total installed photovoltaic power generation capacity should reach 35 million kilowatts (35 GW) or more, compared to the “12th Five-Year Plan†for the development of solar power generation last year. The target of 20 million kilowatts determined is 75% higher. The industry is happy about the country's upgrading of installed capacity. It also raises some questions. What is the basis for the establishment of the 35GW target?
The Chinese government has always been logically reversing the establishment of PV installations. The National Energy Administration had previously set an annual installed capacity of 10 million kilowatts, and had also issued a 15GW distributed power generation plan. There was no final decision. Therefore, the industry still has huge doubts about the country's 35GW installation target. What is the national electricity subsidy? 35GW How much subsidy is needed? Where does the funding gap come from? These are the basis for the country's establishment of the installation target. Only by clarifying these details can we develop a national-level PV plan.
However, the introduction of 35 GW has continued the previous pragmatism and it is not pragmatic. It is unknown how to implement it at the national level. At present, there is disagreement among government departments on the use of electricity subsidies of 0.35 yuan or 0.45 yuan. There is no solution to the current 20 billion yuan subsidy gap and the source of funding after the expansion of the installed capacity. What do you want to achieve the 35GW installation target? ?
At the national level, the targets were announced first, followed by the introduction of detailed rules. The first was to stabilize the "military spirit"; the second was to solve the fundamental problems faced by the photovoltaic industry through repulsive measures, and also to meet the style of the new leader who had broken the wrist. If there is no target, the country can not increase the added value of renewable energy for no reason at all, nor can it restrain the grid from issuing PV subsidies in a timely manner, and it cannot digest excess capacity. It is only for enterprises that they are more concerned with the follow-up policy details.
2. What is the difference between subsidy funds and actual demand?
The State Council has defined the 35GW installation target, and at the same time, it has also clarified that the distributed photovoltaic subsidies period is 20 years. If it is actually completed, how many billions of financial subsidies will be needed each year?
Up to now, the cumulative installed capacity of PV in China is about 7~8GW, which can generate 40 billion to 50 billion kWh per year, corresponding to more than 20 billion yuan in subsidies. If the installed capacity of 35GW is completed, the annual power generation can reach 2,000 to 250 billion kWh, and the annual need for subsidies is 700 to 112.5 billion yuan. This huge capital demand is by no means a simple financial appropriation or the levying of the price of electricity.
The tariff increase from 2%/kWh at the beginning of the levy in 2006 to 4%/kWh in November 2009 and 8%/kWh in December 2011. According to the total electricity consumption of 49591 billion kWh in 2012, the additional electricity price was only 40 billion yuan. Moreover, the additional electricity tariff was not set up for photovoltaics, but for renewable energy, wind energy, biomass, etc. The amount of money actually left for the photovoltaic industry is very small. At present, there is a difference of more than ten times in the supply and demand of PV subsidy. If the cumulative installed PV capacity is further increased by five times by 2015, the subsidy gap will become astronomical.
The author believes that since the state is determined to support the development of renewable energy, it is necessary to “do things†in traditional energy. A reasonable carbon tax and appropriate increase in the added value of renewable energy are the only means to solve the subsidy gap. When the Chinese government develops photovoltaics for too short a period and the high cost of photovoltaic power generation is too large, it can only make a fuss about the social benefits of photovoltaic power generation, that is, allowing traditional thermal power generation users to take out some money to compensate. Contribution to carbon reduction."
As early as during the 2010 National Two Conferences, the Central Committee of the Agricultural and Labour Party proposed proposals on carbon taxation, and established a national renewable energy or low-carbon economy fund by imposing a carbon tax to support the development of a green economy and a low-carbon economy. This may be a solution. The important means for the development of renewable energy. The sources of subsidy funds have not been resolved, and PV subsidy settlement on a monthly basis is an empty phrase.
3. How long does the policy refinement take?
Photovoltaic New Deal of the State Council is a programmatic document. The documents do not have detailed contents, which makes photovoltaic companies feel pressure. For PV companies, they are more concerned not with national planning but with the degree to which certain policies are implemented. Enterprises do not look at the targets but only look at the "effects."
After the State Council established the 35GW installation target, the various ministries and commissions have issued detailed policies to solve problems such as grid connection and subsidy. The detailed rules cannot be introduced within a short period of time and a process is required. Therefore, the photovoltaic industry has doubts as to when the policy will be able to exert force, and it is also skeptical about the implementation of the policy. Many supporting policies related to photovoltaics need to be improved, such as distributed subsidies, benchmarking prices, additional renewable energy value, contract energy management plan rules, mandatory grid connection regulations, etc. These policies are perfect, 35GW will become reality.
In fact, compared with the policy, China's PV is even more lacking in legislation. China can follow the example of Germany and set up a law on distributed photovoltaics so that all details such as application, installation, billing, and maintenance can be followed and the market can be guaranteed. The preconditions for implementation. Of course, since PV is a new industry, it is unrealistic to set up a specific law on distributed photovoltaics, but it can broaden the scope of the "Renewable Energy Law" and use legal measures to ensure the implementation of regulations and regulations.
The author believes that the legislation only allows the industry to form a reasonable business model as soon as possible, and does not blindly protect the interests of the photovoltaic companies. The original intention of the state to support the renewable energy industry is for technological progress, not digestion of production capacity, so companies should not completely rely on subsidies to save themselves.
Short comment: Do not push forward, photovoltaic companies will die in the hotbed
35GW, the government does not seem to be a flicker, and the implementation of policy details is just around the corner. It is only 35GW. PV companies need to understand how much the government and taxpayers have to pay. The traditional electricity price is a one-point rise, but the PV subsidy is still four or five cents. As everyone knows, every penny rise in electricity prices will have a huge impact on residents and industrial production. Therefore, the path of compensating for PV by increasing electricity prices will not be too broad. The state has taken great care of the photovoltaic industry. Its essential purpose is to digest excess production capacity, enhance photovoltaic power generation technology, and step by step to promote photovoltaic power generation to the market. In contrast, most companies are waiting for the “cake†to grab the “cake†and do not realize the good intentions of the country. I have said on many occasions that high subsidies are not sustainable, and if the “cake†is divided, the cost of electricity generation is still not available. Great change, companies will die in hotbeds. At the same time, the national policy is intended to digest production capacity, and it is difficult to eliminate production capacity. After three years, the Chinese market capacity will increase unabated, but it is not known whether the installed capacity of PV and national subsidies will increase.
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