Where is the domestic polysilicon in 2014?

The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping investigation on imported solar grade polysilicon originating in the United States and South Korea has been affecting the trend of domestic polysilicon prices. A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce officially released the final result of the anti-dumping investigation. Can the price of polysilicon, which has been rising all the way, continue to be strong? How will the domestic PV material market structure change?

Overseas companies can still take advantage of the loopholes

Since import and export of processing trade does not impose tariffs, overseas companies can avoid punitive tariffs by importing in this way.

At present, the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Announcement on the Final Determination of Polysilicon Anti-Dumping Investigation". The announcement shows that during the investigation period of this case, the products under investigation were dumped, the solar-grade polysilicon industry in China was substantially damaged, and there was a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage. . Compared with the preliminary ruling issued by the Ministry of Commerce in July 2013, the anti-dumping tax rate of US companies still maintained the original judgment of 53.3%~57%, and the anti-dumping tax rate of Korean enterprises increased slightly from 2.3% to 48.7% to 2.4%~48.7%. The implementation period is 5 years from January 20, 2014.

“Korea OCI, which accounts for 30% of imported polysilicon, is only taxed at a rate of 2.4%. The EU companies with the largest share share are also not included in the anti-dumping list with the “Handshake” of the China-European PV negotiations.” Junsheng Investment Management Co., Ltd. Zhang Wei, the investment director, said in an interview with the reporter of China Electronics News that “the degree of anti-dumping efforts on this level is also very limited to the popularity of polysilicon producers in China.”

“The tax rate of major Korean companies is too low, and it seems that they can only be reviewed in the same period.” A domestic polysilicon executive sighed.

To add insult to injury, some overseas companies can also take the relevant measures to exploit the trade policy and escape punishment. According to the reporter's understanding, before the "double-reverse" investigation, polysilicon imported by processing trade is generally close to 50%, and this level is currently increasing. "Processing is the special trade mode for promoting the development of export-oriented economy and promoting the export of cheap labor in China in the early stage of reform and opening up. Since import and export of processing trade does not impose tariffs, importing in this way can avoid punitive tariffs." Zhang Wei said "At present, this kind of trade has been completely changed. It is not a real processing trade. Due to lax supervision, it has become the main form of trade to avoid taxation."

In addition, overseas polysilicon companies have escaped punishment by selling their products to Taiwan and then re-exporting them to mainland China. In November 2013, China imported 792 tons of polysilicon from Taiwan, an increase of 27.1% from the previous month, accounting for 10% of the total imports. "If you don't stop it in time, it will be even more embarrassing to evade the 'double-reverse' phenomenon through entrepot trade in the future," Zhang said.

According to the data of November 2013, China imported 2,033 tons of polysilicon from processing trade in South Korea, accounting for 71% of the total imports from South Korea. Since the United States, it imported 2,365 tons of polysilicon by processing trade, up to the total imports from the United States. 98%. In this regard, Lu Wei, Secretary-General of the Polysilicon Industry Technology Innovation Alliance, told reporters: "It is foreseeable that this proportion will continue to grow with the advancement of the 'double-reverse' program and the promulgation of the final ruling. To this end, the Ministry of Commerce is invited to consider Incorporate solar-grade polysilicon into the catalogue of prohibited trade in processing trade to consolidate the effect of trade protection."
The price increase does not hinder the market pattern

The more advanced the polysilicon technology, the more concentrated it is for capital, equipment, and R&D investment, and the market share is getting higher and higher.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic polysilicon market price has risen fiercely. At present, the average price of polysilicon has reached 147,000 yuan / ton, up 8.64% from the 135,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, up 20% over the same period last year. The industry believes that once the country puts polysilicon into the "processing trade" ban list, it will further fill the "double-reverse" loopholes, and the price of polysilicon may continue to be bullish.

"In addition to the 'double anti-' factors, demand is also one of the reasons for the recent price increase of polysilicon." Zhang Wei analyzed, "downstream companies are afraid that the next polysilicon will continue to increase prices, so the stocking is more intensive."

"Polysilicon has been out of stock in the first quarter of this year, and the price of the US dollar is already close to $25/kg." A domestic polysilicon executive said, "We had predicted that the price of polysilicon in 2014 would be around $25. It seems that this moment has already Come early." He said that this year's price will be a high in March.

At the same time that the price of polysilicon is rising all the time, the material manufacturers of monocrystalline silicon and thin film photovoltaic technology are also unable to sit still. In order to grab more component manufacturers and power station customers, several major domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers have jointly launched two new types of monocrystalline silicon wafer size standards. Hanergy Holding Group also took the lead in setting up China's thin film photovoltaic industry. alliance.

"Currently, the rise in polysilicon prices will not affect the market share of each technology route." Zhang Wei said, "Single crystal silicon and thin film have their own advantages compared with polysilicon, but the current disadvantage is more obvious." According to Zhang Wei's analysis, The main problem of single crystal silicon is that the difference between single furnace output and polysilicon is too large, and it is getting bigger and bigger. It is difficult to pull out large diameter of single crystal silicon, and there are many cut parts. Therefore, the conversion efficiency of single crystal silicon is at least It is 3 percentage points higher than polysilicon to be competitive. In addition, the conversion rate of the thin film battery is low, and the technology is beyond the possibility of surpassing the crystalline silicon in a short time. Since the industry is not fully warmed up, the possibility of new investment entering is not high, and it is impossible to commercialize the application on a large scale, and the cost cannot be reduced. He stressed: "Because of the existence of the Matthew effect, the more advanced the polysilicon technology, the more concentrated the investment in capital, equipment and R&D, and the higher its market share."

For example, Jiangsu Zhongneng, a subsidiary of Poly GCL, which now accounts for nearly 25% of the global polysilicon market, currently has a capacity of 65,000 tons and can supply more than 12 GW of silicon raw material per year. Since 2013, Jiangsu Zhongneng has withstood the impact of import dumping and has ensured domestic supply with full horsepower. The annual production and sales volume increased by 35% over the previous year. "If the price of polysilicon soars, it is not a good thing for us. It is not a good thing for the entire photovoltaic industry. In the long run, the prices of raw materials and solar energy products should be declining, and the industry can maintain sustainable development." Vice President of GCL-Poly According to the standard, "With the mass production of silane fluidized bed technology and the commissioning of self-supplied power plants, China's polysilicon enterprises have the ability to provide more high-quality and cheap raw materials to the global crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, so as to achieve an affordable Internet access as soon as possible. Share."

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